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Grand National 2015

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  • #881392
    Avatar photopatriot1
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    • Total Posts 960

    I’m delighted for Oliver Sherwood and it’s a huge achievement for Leighton Aspell to win two years running with different horses. But most of all I’m pleased that the race was won by a horse that wasn’t trained all year for this.

    I must confess Many Clouds wasn’t on my shortlist but at least the place on Alvarado meant I broke even.

    I know Sherwood’s saying that Many Clouds wasn’t at his best in the Gold Cup but even if he was he wouldn’t have beaten that performance by Coneygree.

    The Gold Cup form has certainly been franked this week.

    #881425
    stilvi
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    • Total Posts 5228

    Not the most predictable. Winner is a class act but it appeared the Grand National was very much an after thought following a tough race in the Gold Cup and of course everyone said he wanted soft ground and there wasn’t much in his record to suggest otherwise. Well, surely four and a half miles on quicker ground would sort him out, wouldn’t it? That I suspect was the thought process of many and the reason he was a ‘big price’. Amazing how things can turn, as you would imagine the team would probably been pretty deflated after the Gold Cup.

    Little bit surprising that the two National winners, Shutthefrontdoor and Royale Knight didn’t appear to see it out but perhaps the favourite may have run a little too free so close to the pace and the latter maybe just not good enough at the weights which are clearly framed to benefit the better horses.

    Obviously, The Druids Nephew appeared to be tanking but it was probably a little too early to make a definite judgement as to what might have happened. Ideally, I don’t think connections would have wanted to see him in front quite so soon. As National falls go it looked pretty soft.

    #881511
    Avatar photoSteeplechasing
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    • Total Posts 6114

    Patriot, I wouldn’t be so sure that he’d not have troubled Coneygree. He’s run nowhere near his best in the GC and, for whatever reason, had an off day. To win a good ground National with 11.9 is a cracking performance.

    Steve, I was hoping you’d backed the winner as you’d put him up for the National a few times. As to Rocky Creek, I’ll never understand these attempts to ride a horse ‘to get the trip’. They either stay or they don’t iMo.

    #881585
    Avatar photopatriot1
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    • Total Posts 960

    It is a hell of a performance to win off that weight after a hard race at Cheltenham but Coneygree’s performance(was it 5 seconds outside standard on soft ground) was so exceptional that I still can’t see Many Clouds winning.

    Now could we see this horse defending his Hennessy next year? What a race this could be if the Bradstocks go for it as well and the connections of Don Poli and Djakadam could be tempted getting weight off the top two.

    #881685
    Avatar photostevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8241

    Patriot, I wouldn’t be so sure that he’d not have troubled Coneygree. He’s run nowhere near his best in the GC and, for whatever reason, had an off day. To win a good ground National with 11.9 is a cracking performance.

    Steve, I was hoping you’d backed the winner as you’d put him up for the National a few times. As to Rocky Creek, I’ll never understand these attempts to ride a horse ‘to get the trip’. They either stay or they don’t iMo.

    Just the three horses picked for me this year Joe. Rocky Creek and Night In Milan as soon as I saw betting for the race way back and then Many Clouds, because 40/1 looked big for a Hennessey winner.

    I am still not convinced Many Clouds was that bad in the Gold Cup. The winner, 2nd and 3rd all came into the race as promising horses on the upgrade and with room for further improvement. The way the race was run in the Gold Cup meant is was pretty hard to keep tabs on Coneygree. Silviniaco Conti couldn’t cope, although the track may have been a factor and time may tell that the 1-2-3 are good horses.

    The faster ground offset by the longer trip is a conundrum that pundits have argued over for years. Does a horse need softer ground for physical mechanics of motion reasons or does it help because it slows other horses down through stamina drainage or making them less efficient in moving on the prevailing ground?

    Whatever the reason, it’s a welcome change of luck for me after a pretty lean spell punting in the National. I had a good record in the 80’s and 90’s but not so good since.

    I thought Many Clouds might run out of juice today but he kept on gamely. No doubt the flame of the Gold Cup will pull connections towards it like a moth next year but barring a bog I think one or three may be too speedy in the Gold Cup.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #881698
    Blue1878
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    • Total Posts 179

    I backed St. Are and had a great run but what a nice guy Sherwood is, totally a nice guy in his demeanour.
    Just glad that McCoy never won it to overshadow what almost was overshadowed.
    Many Clouds, what a career with this and the Hennessey – I think he will not be in any more handicaps.

    #881699
    Avatar photoTonge
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    • Total Posts 2993

    I was also on Saint Are. Thought he was going to do it as they jumped the last but the winner was just too good. Year after year we hear about the winner being the type to “be the first after Red Rum to do back to backs” but, for once, I see no reason why Many Clouds shouldn’t be in with a decent shout.

    #881723
    properfences
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    • Total Posts 59

    Stevecaution

    Part of me hopes you are wrong and that Many Clouds’ connections won’t even consider running in the 2016 Gold Cup. Mind you, that didn’t harm his National performance this year! I just think next year’s Gold Cup could be something amazing, with this year’s 1-2-3 being joined, potentially, by the likes of Dom Poli, Saphir du Rheu and Don Cossack.

    Where will Many Clouds go? Another tilt at the Hennessy would look an obvious choice, but how about the Betfair? Softish ground at Haydock might just suit him very well. Then, perhaps, the Cheltenham Trial (whatever it is called!) in January, then straight to Aintree with, possibly, a go at the Gold Cup as a ‘bonus’?

    Next season’s big staying chases are already mouth-watering prospects!

    #881740
    Avatar photogrey dolphin
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    • Total Posts 650

    Classy national. So glad Balthazar King got up but it’s increasingly clear to me that having neutered Becher’s the Canal Turn and its funnelling effect is now the problem fence.

    #881798
    properfences
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    • Total Posts 59

    The repositioned inside running rail on the approach to the Canal Turn now, effectively, makes the jockeys’ minds up for them, all but forcing them to take the same route as Pitman on Crisp in 1973 and Carberry on L’Escargot in 1975, both of whom cut the corner and saved many lengths on the second circuit. On the first circuit, with generally around 35 still standing, an en masse corner cutting is bound, occasionally, to cause problems. Maybe a case to be made for returning the running rail to its ‘old’ position?

    #881799
    Avatar photogrey dolphin
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    • Total Posts 650

    And just watching the re-run, what a star Ruby was. He must have been disappointed but first to try and help avert any further problems. Class.

    #881896
    Avatar photoSteeplechasing
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    • Total Posts 6114

    Steve, he should have finished much closer in the GC. I’m convinced he had an off day, and his RPR of 153 will now find itself sandwiched between a 166 and, I’d guess, a 176.

    His Argento win, to me, was the most impressive GC trial I’d seen for years – since Denman’s Sun Alliance. And he reminds me a lot of Denman with that straight-necked galloping style. Looks like he’ll be unlucky in bumping into an even stronger stayer than he is in Don Poli, and a freak in Vautour (though I sense Mullins backing off his GC aspirations with the latter). So, he’ll have his work cut out next year in the GC, but I suspect he’s not yet stopped improving. Whether the ‘curse’ of being a GN winner will prove a career-stopper, we’ll have to wait and see. Worrying that he gives so much that he gets the wobbles post-race.

    #882059
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    • Total Posts 33016

    Taking a look at the placed horses Monbeg Dude, Alvorada and Royale Knight (weights and distances) I would not be surprised if Many Clouds is rated the equal or almost equal to Coneygree. The best Grand National performance in decades. Although there’s a chance he’ll need very soft ground to win a Gold Cup to blunt other’s speed; suspect he just had an off day in the Gold Cup, showed enough speed in the BetBright against Dynaste and Smad Place to think should’ve been more effective in the Blue Riband.

    Value Is Everything
    #882327
    Dex
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    • Total Posts 90

    Taking a look at the placed horses Monbeg Dude, Alvorada and Royale Knight (weights and distances) I would not be surprised if Many Clouds is rated the equal or almost equal to Coneygree. The best Grand National performance in decades. Although there’s a chance he’ll need very soft ground to win a Gold Cup to blunt other’s speed; suspect he just had an off day in the Gold Cup, showed enough speed in the BetBright against Dynaste and Smad Place to think should’ve been more effective in the Blue Riband.

    I agree, they did say when they were cooling him down that the only time that he hasn’t been needed to be cooled down so fast was in the gold cup, so maybe he had an off day then, but it was a performance carrying 11st9lbs, the highest ever weight since red rum? It shows that a touch of class can win this race now even if carrying a so called hefty weight. I would never have picked Many Clouds in 100 runnings purely because of the weight he was carrying, but I won’t discount it as easily next time thats for sure! I also think this grand national winner has it in him to win another race!

    #882341
    Avatar photoyeats
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    • Total Posts 3442

    Like Silvianco Conti don’t believe Many Clouds had an off day in the Gold Cup, they both just weren’t good enough in the race on the day for me.

    No reason why Many Clouds wouldn’t run in the Gold Cup next year prior to the National again.

    #882344
    Red Rum 77
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    • Total Posts 4786

    Maybe it was weight which told in the Gold Cup, and by weight I mean Official Ratings.
    He won the Betbright Cup Chase (24th January this year) on a mark of 161, in the Gold Cup he ran from a mark of 165 and in the Grand National he ran off a mark of 160. So within his highest winning mark.

    Also although not official figures the Racing Post Rating (in my opinion a useful tool, because it’s worked out constantly) shows that he ran a personal best in the January race.

    The best things in life are free.
    But you can give them to the birds and bees.

    #882424
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 32177

    I’ve only watched the race the once but Balthazar King looked to be going so well.
    McCoy looked to have a double handful hold of Shutthefrontdoor, I’d like to know what price he was trading in running, thought he would have stayed on stronger to be honest.

    Blackbeard to conquer the World

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