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The angle I’m beginning to take on this is CC and Dynaste will be hard to beat receiving up to 10lbs from the others.
My tuppence worth –
Many Clouds – Badly treated at the weights, may need further.
Menorah – Has won this before FTO, but is badly weighted.
Sam Winner – Badly treated at the weights.
Hollywell – Badly treated at the weights and has never won FTO in a season.
Ballynagour – Would be interesting but for a shocking record FTO in a season.
Cur Card – plenty to prove, and badly in with Dynaste.
Dynaste – best treated of all at the weights, Grade 1 winner, has won 40% (2/5) of seasonal reappearances during UK career.I found it pretty easy to reach the conclusion to have a good bet on Dynaste, he’ll probably run like a drain.
Good luck all.
BUY THE SUN
Course not ideal for either but the ground has come right for the stayers/sloggers so Sam Winner & Many Clouds (if both are fit enough 1st time out) are the most likely winners given the conditions.
Can’t have Cue Card (highly overrated imho) who is not the same horse since his injury – for me he struggles at this trip (he got an easy lead when winning the Betfair 2yrs ago) and the ground is now proper soft, which won’t help especially first time out and he is unlikely to be able to dictate the pace this time as everybody now knows his mo.
Dynaste will be the fiitest after his recent French outing but in my opinion he like Cue Card is best at 2m4F and I think he will struggle to get home in that ground if they go a decent gallop.
Menorah goes well at this course but ground not certain to suit him (best runs on sound surface) and it will not help his jumping too much either, which is not fluent at the best of times.
All of Ballynagour’s best form seems to be in the Spring time but if we do get a shock result and he is on a going day (a big if), he may be the one to cause it.
Holywell – seems better in the spring, can’t have him on this ground.
My preference is just for Sam Winner not only because he is likely to be a bigger price but also because I think he will be straighter for this than Many Clouds, who I think connections are looking at this race purely as a prep for getting him ready for the defence of his Hennessy crown next month.
My preference is just for Sam Winner not only because he is likely to be a bigger price but also because I think he will be straighter for this than Many Clouds, who I think connections are looking at this race purely as a prep for getting him ready for the defence of his Hennessy crown next month.
hope you’re right LD
Final thoughts (pasted from my blog)
The conditions of entry for races sometimes throw up oddities. Penalties are almost always to blame and it is these (where a horse has to carry extra weight because he won a certain grade/value of a race at a certain time of year) which determine that in tomorrow’s Charlie Hall Chase (3.05 Wetherby), Sam Winner, who is officially rated a 6lbs inferior horse to Dynaste, must give Dynaste 10lbs.
There are other such incongruities in the race, but the one mentioned above is mainly due to Dynaste not having won a race for 18 months, whereas Sam Winner has won a couple.
Anyway, it’s a tricky race even without these inconsistencies.
Dynaste has been running, as usual, at the top level, mostly respectably, but still without winning. If the forecast rain falls tonight (7mm fell last night), he might find his pace blunted at the hot end of the race.
Sam Winner will enjoy a stamina test, but is well wrong in the weights. Holywell has never won before the turn of the year, and AP, after winning on him in February said, ‘I don’t know what it is, but he’s just better at this time of year.’
Dynaste’s stable companion Ballynagour is a promising horse, but he has broken blood vessels more than once, and I wouldn’t take the chance on his lungs remaining blood-free this time.
I love Menorah, but can never catch him. How his trainer keeps these veterans fresh deserves racing’s equivalent of the Nobel prize.
Cue Card is an old favourite of mine, but I’ve never backed him since he stopped so spectacularly in the 2013 King George. I’m convinced something went wrong with him that day (he hasn’t won since, nor come closer than within 12 lengths of doing so). His trainer is invariably bullish about his homework, and the horse has been supported in the market, but homework cannot be done under race conditions, and it’s when the pressure is on that Cue Card’s problem seems to stop him. Joe Tizzard has talked of a trapped epiglottis last year, but I’m going to wait and see what happens on the track.
Many Clouds is badly in with Dynaste and Ballynagour. He’s giving Dynaste 9lbs more than he should be on official ratings, but I believe he’s the value in the race. Having seen his stunning Grand National triumph, anyone would be forgiven for branding him a stayer pure and simple, but he has speed, and has 6 victories at 20 furlongs or shorter to his name. Also, he has a fine seasonal debut record: won 3 from 4 (2nd in the other one).
I tipped him strongly here for the Gold Cup and was dumbfounded when he ran such a poor race, as was Mr Sherwood, his trainer, who now believes the horse had an off day at Cheltenham. That’s a real shame if he did, because he could be lining up here going for 6 wins in a row, in which case he’d be a darn sight shorter in the betting than the 13/2 on offer with 888Sport and 32Red.
Take that price if you like, and I will be, but I’ll also be having the maximum allowed with HIlls on their CH4 offer (£25), which returns your stake as a free bet if your selection is 2nd.
The trainer and jockey of Many Clouds report him in tip-top shape, although Mr Sherwood says he will come on for the race. He’d have come on after each of his seasonal debuts, so I wouldn’t be put off by that. There is always a nagging doubt with National winners that the race takes so much out of them, they never regain their old form. I’m willing to chance it. I think this horse is pretty special, and I just wonder too that, if he is, then connections might well change their primary plan – the National – and give him another crack at the Gold Cup.
But, best get tomorrow out of the way first. It will tell us a lot…whether it ends up being what we want to hear, well, that’s another matter!
Good luck
Joe
Good write up Joe.
With Irish Cavalier a no show, I’ll stick with Sam Winner, who’s available at 16’s, and might look for Holywell to chase him home.
GL
You put forward a very strong case for many clouds joe and your comments have clouded my thinking (pardon the pun). My only concern is this run being used to blow the cobwebs off to get him race fit . I’m yet to have my saver in this but have removed CC as much as I love him.
This has cut up a lot, but still looks an interesting race.
Obviously BALLYNAGOUR, CUE CARD and DYNASTE have a big weight
advantage, and less so HOLLYWELL, but whether that’s going to
be a deciding factor I’m not convinced.Ballynagour has had his problems, but even without them I don’t
know if his form is solid enough to win this.CUE CARD is a horse I stuck with for too long in the past, I know
he was a favourite of yours too Joe, and I agree with you that
something is just not right with the horse. Until he looks like
he has turned the corner, and I doubt that he will, I won’t be
touching him.DYNASTE, a little bit like CUE CARD, once looked like a world
beater. However the wheels came off the barrow a little, and he
has become “a nearly horse”. If he were to return to anything
like his best form, he would be a serious danger. I’m not
convinced.HOLYWELL has some serious good form which would give him every
chance, but as Joe mentioned, he doesn’t win races this side of
Christmas. The one and only time that he did, was on his second
start back in 2011.Of those carrying top weight, MANY CLOUDS, MENORAH and SAM WINNER,
I couldn’t rule any out. SAM WINNER may be the outsider of the field,
but he will handle the ground, which I think will be soft at best, and
5 of his 6 wins have come in November and December, so this is his time
of year. 16/1 with Ladbrokes is generous.Menorah is the old boy, but the way he won last time out at Sandown in
April shows he has lost no enthusiasm for the game. Phillip Hobbs started
off last year in terrific fashion. He is bound to have MENORAH ready for
this, I can’t see him out of the forecast.That leaves MANY CLOUDS, who is my idea of the winner. I know it has been
commented that this may be on the short side for him, and he undoubtedly
has stamina to burn. He has won 9 times, but the National aside, of the
remaining 8 only 2 have been over 3 miles (3m 2 and 3m 1 1/2), so I don’t
think the distance will be any hindrance, and if it comes up getting
towards heavy his stamina is a bonus. I think the 6/1 which is still
generally on offer, is very good value. He has won in November the past
3 years so I’ve no reason to believe that Oliver Sherwood wont have him
right for this.Bad luck with IRISH CAVALIER being withdrawn Bobby.
Good luck guys
My apologies Joe, the post I have just posted I had been typing
up, whilst also running about for Mrs BigG, took over a couple of
hours, so I didn’t see your update. I’ve probably replicated many of your
points. I’m in agreement with you, but if I had checked before I posted
I would have cut my speel down quite a bit. Sorry about that.As is always the question with these early season races you are guessing a bit as to which horses are fully tuned for the race and which are being aimed for future events.
For me Many Clouds is firmly in the latter category. His defence of the Hennessy is the priority. Add to that the obvious question of how much his National win has taken out of him and I have to look elsewhere.
Dynaste ran really poorly at Auteuil, albeit in a hurdle and just doesn’t attract me. As stated elsewhere Holywell doesn’t win in the autumn and the ground has gone against Menorah.
For me it’s between two horses. This could be Cue Card’s best chance of a big victory this year and who could ever rule out a runner from the master of winning the big Saturday races Paul Nicholls. Sam Winner won first time out last year, admittedly at a slightly lower grade but the ground should suit and there are just fewer doubts for me.
Sam Winner is the bet in an intriguing Charlie Hall.
Ground against Menorah now which is a shame as on good or better I think he would of gone close.
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Ground against Menorah now which is a shame as on good or better I think he would of gone close.
Hi Nathan and Patriot.
I wouldn’t be too worried about the ground for MENORAH,
while most of his wins have been on G/S, he has won on both soft
and heavy. He also ran a cracking race in the Betfair at Haydock
last November, beaten 2 lengths by SILVINIACO CONTI at level weights,
with Dynaste 8 lengths behind, and Cue Card a further 2 lengths behind,
on soft ground.I do fancy MANY CLOUDS, but I see MENORAH as the biggest threat.
With my two outsiders not running I’ve just had an ew on Sam Winner, as the only horse with an ew price.
Hope you’re right regard Menorah BigG.
Hobbs was hopeful of quicker ground but like you said earlier if one was going to be ready for first time out then it is likely to be Menorah.Charles Darwin to conquer the World
I followed Sam Winner off a cliff too last season….
But can he concede 10 lbs to Cue Card and Dynaste? I can’t see it. Still trying to fathom out how this Grade 2 is weighted….would have thought it would have been level weights….can someone shed some light?It’s all in the penalties. The timing with these sometimes throws up some who are very well in. I recall the Amlin Chase a few years back when Albertas Run was getting weight from horses who didn’t even belong in the same race as him. All because he hadn’t won for some time (Timeform gave him a squiggle during that period when even cursory research would have shown that what the horse needed was proper good ground. He got it that day in the Amlin and hacked up at 8s).
Here are Saturday’s conditions:
£100,000 guaranteed For 5yo+ Weights 11st Penalties after September 30th, 2014, winner of a Class 3 weight-for-age or Class 2 handicap chase 4lb; of a Class 2 weight-for-age or Class 1 handicap chase 6lb; of a Class 1 weight-for-age chase 10lb (Half penalties winsachieved in Novices’ and Beginners’ Chases in Great Britain and Ireland, and three-year-old Chases in France) Allowances mares 7lb
It’s a very tricky looking race. I’d pay no heed to Tizzard’s comments on Cue Card. Prior to every single run last year the yard was hugely bullish, and no doubt the horse was working very well. But Cue Card’s problem only emerges in race conditions: he cracks under pressure, almost certainly, I believe, because of whatever it was that stopped him so quickly when about to hack up in the King George. Tizzard is now saying they found a trapped epiglottis in the close season, but I’ll be holding to see what happens on the track: I suspect whatever went wrong at Kempton will never come right again, although he’s undeniably well in, and if he does not win this, they ought to retire him, imo.
Dynaste too is well in, although it’s 18 months since he has won. Still, the track ought to suit him and I think he’ll prove best of the Old Guard.
Pipe’s other one, Ballynagour’s inconsistent form could well be down to the fact that he has bled more than once. If you could be sure he wouldn’t bleed, he’d be better value than Dynaste.
Holywell has never won before the turn of the year. AP, after winning a race on him in February said, ‘I don’t know what it is, but he’s just better at this time of year.’
Rocky Creek, Many Clouds, and Sam Winner should all find the trip insufficient on the forecast ground, and none is well in. I love Menorah, but can never catch him. How his trainer keeps these old timers fresh deserves racing’s equivalent of the Nobel prize.
Alderbrook Lad looks thoroughly exposed, and that’s aside from him having to give the 166 rated Dynaste 4lbs when he himself is rated 143.
So, that leave the Rebecca Curtis pair. Bobby’s bet, Irish Cavalier seems to me the soundest by far and I’ll be following Bobby in. Despite not being well in here, IC is in form, and improving, and the youngest in the field by some way. It’s very interesting that his trainer chooses this – where he is badly in, as against the Paddy Power off his current mark of 156, where at the very least, he’d have a better theoretical chance at the weights (assuming he won’t run in both).
But very interesting too, to me at least, is that she also has The Romford Pele in there. She must fancy IC quite strongly, yet she puts in this one too, who hasn’t run for a year. The Romford Pele was a horse I once thought might make up into something decent. I don’t know what has kept him off the course so long, but it seems significant that he returns here, and he’s a big price.
I’ll take the 10s now about Irish Cavalier, and if TRP is declared, have a saver on him.
EDITED: I see Curtis has left Irish Cavalier in Saturday’s JN Wine at Down Royal, so might be best holding for the decs, though this looks to me the easier race by far.
Good luck
Joe you are to Cue Card what I am to Holywell and was to Albertas Run .Bloody Timeforms squiggle just goes to show they are no better judges than the rest of us.Your horse was rated 174 in last years King George and tomorrow gets in off 163,he’s beaten ‘Dynaste’ before and I expect him to again,he was rated 5lb higher than ‘Menorah’ at Xmas and gets 10lbs off him in this years Charlie Hall.He is thrown in and if he shows his true running he is over-priced at 7/2.Both ‘Many clouds’ and ‘Holywell’ have bigger race targets ahead so I expect both to need the run.If I was you Joe I’d be singing Cue Cards praises for this as everythings in his favour…..
This has cut up a lot, but still looks an interesting race.
Obviously BALLYNAGOUR, CUE CARD and DYNASTE have a big weight
advantage, and less so HOLLYWELL, but whether that’s going to
be a deciding factor I’m not convinced.Ballynagour has had his problems, but even without them I don’t
know if his form is solid enough to win this.CUE CARD is a horse I stuck with for too long in the past, I know
he was a favourite of yours too Joe, and I agree with you that
something is just not right with the horse. Until he looks like
he has turned the corner, and I doubt that he will, I won’t be
touching him.DYNASTE, a little bit like CUE CARD, once looked like a world
beater. However the wheels came off the barrow a little, and he
has become “a nearly horse”. If he were to return to anything
like his best form, he would be a serious danger. I’m not
convinced.HOLYWELL has some serious good form which would give him every
chance, but as Joe mentioned, he doesn’t win races this side of
Christmas. The one and only time that he did, was on his second
start back in 2011.Of those carrying top weight, MANY CLOUDS, MENORAH and SAM WINNER,
I couldn’t rule any out. SAM WINNER may be the outsider of the field,
but he will handle the ground, which I think will be soft at best, and
5 of his 6 wins have come in November and December, so this is his time
of year. 16/1 with Ladbrokes is generous.Menorah is the old boy, but the way he won last time out at Sandown in
April shows he has lost no enthusiasm for the game. Phillip Hobbs started
off last year in terrific fashion. He is bound to have MENORAH ready for
this, I can’t see him out of the forecast.That leaves MANY CLOUDS, who is my idea of the winner. I know it has been
commented that this may be on the short side for him, and he undoubtedly
has stamina to burn. He has won 9 times, but the National aside, of the
remaining 8 only 2 have been over 3 miles (3m 2 and 3m 1 1/2), so I don’t
think the distance will be any hindrance, and if it comes up getting
towards heavy his stamina is a bonus. I think the 6/1 which is still
generally on offer, is very good value. He has won in November the past
3 years so I’ve no reason to believe that Oliver Sherwood wont have him
right for this.Bad luck with IRISH CAVALIER being withdrawn Bobby.
Good luck guys
No worries, Big G, great minds think alike
Gord, It’s always one of those mixed feelings times for me when CC runs, and you’ve urged me before not to give up on him. He has massive talent, always has had, but I’m convinced something went wrong physically in that KG, and I want to see him prove on the track that it has been remedied. If that happens tomorrow, I’ll take my medicine in good humour. While the key signs are that it’s his breathing that’s faulty, I’m not convinced this is the case, as it should have been picked up by connections and was not during the season. They’re now saying they found a trapped epiglottis: why wasn’t that found sooner? How much impact does it have?
Anyway, I could go on and on – let’s see what tomorrow brings.
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