Charlie Hall Chase 2015

Looking at the forecast there look quite a lot of rain around between now at sat so I’d imagine it will go of soft

Pulled up in his last two outings but goes well in the early season can Sam winner make the frame. Good 3rd in the Lexus last season and doesn’t mind a bit of soft going.

14s still avaiable but as short as 8s in places

Money for Cue Card after trainers comments. Best price 11/2, I love this horse but beginning to lose the faith a bit

JAMIEDB9007 wrote:

I followed Sam Winner off a cliff too last season….
But can he concede 10 lbs to Cue Card and Dynaste? I can’t see it. Still trying to fathom out how this Grade 2 is weighted….would have thought it would have been level weights….can someone shed some light?

It’s all in the penalties. The timing with these sometimes throws up some who are very well in. I recall the Amlin Chase a few years back when Albertas Run was getting weight from horses who didn’t even belong in the same race as him. All because he hadn’t won for some time (Timeform gave him a squiggle during that period when even cursory research would have shown that what the horse needed was proper good ground. He got it that day in the Amlin and hacked up at 8s).

Here are Saturday’s conditions:

£100,000 guaranteed For 5yo+ Weights 11st Penalties after September 30th, 2014, winner of a Class 3 weight-for-age or Class 2 handicap chase 4lb; of a Class 2 weight-for-age or Class 1 handicap chase 6lb; of a Class 1 weight-for-age chase 10lb (Half penalties winsachieved in Novices’ and Beginners’ Chases in Great Britain and Ireland, and three-year-old Chases in France) Allowances mares 7lb

It’s a very tricky looking race. I’d pay no heed to Tizzard’s comments on Cue Card. Prior to every single run last year the yard was hugely bullish, and no doubt the horse was working very well. But Cue Card’s problem only emerges in race conditions: he cracks under pressure, almost certainly, I believe, because of whatever it was that stopped him so quickly when about to hack up in the King George. Tizzard is now saying they found a trapped epiglottis in the close season, but I’ll be holding to see what happens on the track: I suspect whatever went wrong at Kempton will never come right again, although he’s undeniably well in, and if he does not win this, they ought to retire him, imo.

Dynaste too is well in, although it’s 18 months since he has won. Still, the track ought to suit him and I think he’ll prove best of the Old Guard.

Pipe’s other one, Ballynagour’s inconsistent form could well be down to the fact that he has bled more than once. If you could be sure he wouldn’t bleed, he’d be better value than Dynaste.

Holywell has never won before the turn of the year. AP, after winning a race on him in February said, ‘I don’t know what it is, but he’s just better at this time of year.’

Rocky Creek, Many Clouds, and Sam Winner should all find the trip insufficient on the forecast ground, and none is well in. I love Menorah, but can never catch him. How his trainer keeps these old timers fresh deserves racing’s equivalent of the Nobel prize.

Alderbrook Lad looks thoroughly exposed, and that’s aside from him having to give the 166 rated Dynaste 4lbs when he himself is rated 143.

So, that leave the Rebecca Curtis pair. Bobby’s bet, Irish Cavalier seems to me the soundest by far and I’ll be following Bobby in. Despite not being well in here, IC is in form, and improving, and the youngest in the field by some way. It’s very interesting that his trainer chooses this – where he is badly in, as against the Paddy Power off his current mark of 156, where at the very least, he’d have a better theoretical chance at the weights (assuming he won’t run in both).

But very interesting too, to me at least, is that she also has The Romford Pele in there. She must fancy IC quite strongly, yet she puts in this one too, who hasn’t run for a year. The Romford Pele was a horse I once thought might make up into something decent. I don’t know what has kept him off the course so long, but it seems significant that he returns here, and he’s a big price.

I’ll take the 10s now about Irish Cavalier, and if TRP is declared, have a saver on him.

EDITED: I see Curtis has left Irish Cavalier in Saturday’s JN Wine at Down Royal, so might be best holding for the decs, though this looks to me the easier race by far.

Good luck

More money for CC. Best price 4s.

Menorah won this last year and Wishful Thinking’s run on Sunday at Aintree was encouraging enough to think Hobbs has he top guns in good enough shape at this stage.

According to a CH4 tweet, here are the decs:

Ballynagour
Cue Card (pic)
Dynaste
Holywell
Many Clouds
Menorah
Sam Winner