Scottish National 2014

80 odd contenders at the moment, and the dust has barely settled on Aintree, but only a week away so it’s worth an early look.

Difficult to know what to make of those who took in Aintree, and The National itself, but if there’s any justice, then Across The Bay would land it, so unlucky in the big one, but surely up for debate whether he’d head here now after eventually completing. In the preceding race, Carruthers didn’t have much luck either, with his jockey getting bumped off before a ball was kicked. I’m not 100% sure if he went round a second time, but if he didn’t, then he might still be fresh enough to make amends next week. Still capable of the odd big run, and he may appeal to some each way. One who will be fresh after The National is Battle Group. I thought he was an interesting outsider yesterday, and you can be sure connections would have had him ready for a nice touch, had he started. If they decide to go through the whole rigmarole next week, then the 40’s with Skybet might appeal………if you’re brave enough. Without stating the obvious, he comes with risks attached.

Of the placed horses, again, it might be a big ask for the likes of Balthazar King, or Alvarado to repeat their brave efforts, but they’re already attracting support, though early indications are that Balthazar will go to France for his next race. I’d doubt we’ll see Rocky Creek either, along with fellow finishers, Monbeg Dude, and Kruzhlinin, but you never know.

There’s whole host of others who also took in The National, and the likes of Rose Of The Moon, and Quito De La Roque who both bled, and One In A Milan, who was a late casualty, are surely doubtful, while the pulled up trio of Shakalakaboomboom, Vintage Star, and Walkon, could probably be considered even more than doubtful.

Mountainous, and Tidal Bay were early casualties, and certainly ran on for a while, but with Tidal Bay looking like heading for Sandown, then Mountainous is the only horse I’d give a second look to, from yesterdays race.

That preceding race to The National has surely ruled out Unioniste, Minella For Value, and Saint Are. It might also come a bit too soon for Kian’s Delight, but if he can sort his jumping out, then a race like The Scottish National, looks ideal for him in the future.

At the head of the market at 8’s is the novice, Mendip Express. He’s got very little miles on the clock, and after 3 on the bounce this year, he looked as if he was one to really keep on side, but the wheels kind of came off at Newbury, beaten a distance. His win at Cheltenham, doesn’t have that great a look about it in hindsight, and likeable as he is, there’s surely something better lurking at a price.

In front of Mendip Express that day at Newbury was the Paul Nicholls trained Sam Winner, and he came out of that race well, only finding Smad Place too good. He was also far from disgraced in The RSA, finishing just out the money. He’s had a lot of supporters in his brief career, and on balance, he’s probably not achieved as much as what was expected of him, but he’s solid enough on the whole, and at 7, still got a future, so I couldn’t easily discount him. The 14’s with Coral looks very fair for him. He looks the type who could excel, stepped up in trip, and Novices don’t have too bad a record in this. Also entered up from the yard is Poungach. Poungach would be a surprise winner for me to be honest, and can’t really have him.

A win for Lucinda Russell would be a popular result north of the border, and she’s got a decent entry. Green Flag, but for being hampered and knocked out of his race at Wetherby, would be coming out of his excellent fourth at Cheltenham, with long sequence of 1’s and 2’s to back up that fine showing. Model of consistency, and although second in the market in some places, it could just be that he’s still slightly underrated, and the 14’s looks a tad generous. Only up 4lbs for that run at Cheltenham, he’d have to be considered a serious contender. The popular Lie Forrit, has had a successful season over hurdles, recording a couple of victories, as well as finishing third in the Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock. Back over the larger obstacles in this, it would be no surprise to see him go close here with the form he’s been in. I’d probably leave him from an ante-post perspective, as despite being popular, I could see the 16’s available for him just now, holding strong. I wouldn’t be quite as keen on Nuts N Bolts, who, though capable now and then, flopped in this last year, and was beaten a distance at Haydock last time. That was a real slog, and you’d have to be wary the effect that’s had on him. He’s risky, but you’d have to look to his win at Haydock earlier in the season, albeit he didn’t beat much, and a bit further back, to his creditable 6th behind Golden Chieftain at Cheltenham last year. The novice Kriss Cross, on the face of it, doesn’t quite look ready for this, and wouldn’t have ran in an ultra competitive affair like this before. I’d have to consider him an unlikely starter, but should he trap, then his win at Ascot in November, would give him a sporting chance.

Jonjo O’Neil has got a very strong entry. I’m still very much of the opinion that Alfie Sherrin has one last hurrah in him, and should he take his chance here, then I’d be on his side. Would have liked to have seen him a bit closer at Cheltenham, but just might be he couldn’t get competitive with his stablemate, Holywell, who may just be going places. What’s of more interest to me is that he’s down 5lbs after Cheltenham. I’m sure the yard can put that to good use Wouldn’t rule out a trip to Fairyhouse for him, but wherever he goes, I’ll definitely get involved, especially with that current mark. Shutthefrontdoor has been a bit of a let down this season, but, would it really surprise anyone if he suddenly recaptured his form in this. His jumping didn’t impress at Cheltenham last time, and thought he would have finished closer, but he still strikes me as an ideal sort for a test like this. It’s bound to fall in to place for him, sooner, rather than later. He’s another though, who could very well head to Fairyhouse. Merry King has become a bit of a standing dish in big staying handicaps, and he’s always popular, but it’s about time he started rewarding his followers. He’s got excuses for last time, having apparently bled, but there’s just the suspicion that he’s got a knack of always finding a few too good. I’d like to see the handicapper cut him slack. After a promising summer last year, I’d kind of written off Storm Survivor, but after his last run, only finding Night In Milan too good at Doncaster, I’d reconsider his chances, and interesting that they bypassed Aintree with him, considering JP normally has, at the very least, 3 or 4 running for him in The Grand National. Not totally out of it. Smoking Aces, is yet another entry for JP, and this marathon trip will hold no fears for him, he’s rarely far way over a trip like this. Ran second in The Eider last time, edged out by the fellow JP owned, and nicely treated Wyck Hill. I bet him that day, and his rider kicked and cajoled him into the race, and was a valiant effort. Should he take his chance, his rider is sure to earn his fee, and a similar scenario surely awaits. He might find it more difficult to utilise those tactics here, with a hotter line up, but he remains one not to totally give up up on.

The aforementioned Wyck Hill came right back to form in The Eider, but he seemed to be found out by his 8lb rise in The Midlands National. He ran in The Eider 2lbs below his last winning mark, and may just be, he’s worth being patient with, and catching him again some time next season.

Last years winner, Godsmejudge, is back in the mix. Forced to miss Aintree, due to a setback, he can’t be bet with any confidence ante-post, especially after Alan King declared it all systems go the week before for him. Had a small bet on him last year when he won, but despite that, I’d have to leave him alone this time, as efforts since then have been uninspiring. He might be one to pay a bit more attention to next season, though his trainers runners are always worthy of note in this, and he might just have had this race as the plan all along. Midnight Appeal is another entry for Alan King. Nothing wrong with his fourth in The Betbright Chase at Kempton, and his win at Bangor earlier in the season puts him right in the shake up for me. That was just the kind of performance needed for this. He did throw in a stinker over the National fences in December, but I’m willing to forgive him that, as that experience is not one all horses take to. The 25’s catches the eye.

My main bet in this last year was Tour Des Champs. He never looked like winning that day, but was a solid enough fourth, and I don’t see any reason why he can’t make the frame again. After a dismal showing at Chepstow, he ran a a blinder in The Betbright, before an excellent fifth at Cheltenham. If in the same mood, I’d say it’s very difficult to ignore him at 16’s from an Ante-Post view, as I’d be very surprised if he didn’t go here. I love runners in this from the NTD stable, anything making the trip will be worth a second glance. His other entry is Same Difference, who hit the heights at Cheltenham last season, before enduring a frustrating spell this year. I didn’t hear any reason why he was scratched for Aintree, and assuming he’s well, he’s of serious interest back down to his last winning mark……..just in time for this I like the pair of them. If sound, the 20’s about Same Difference would have to be snapped up. The only other thing holding me back from diving right in, is his entry in The Bet365 Chase at Sandown, which would also be ideal for him.

Venetia Williams has had a great season, and no surprise to see her have a few entered. I bet Rigadin De Beauchene when he won at Haydock, and providing that hasn’t bottomed him (it was a proper slog) then he should run well for a long way, though the 16lb hike for that seems excessive, and that might just stop him. He won fairly comfortably that day, but he had conditions to suit, and the majority of the field seemed to hate it, so I’m not sure he deserved a punishment like that. I had Ballyoliver marked down as a challenger for a few of the better staying chases this year, but for the majority of the season he’s been poor. He did, however, get back to winning ways at Carlisle last time. He wouldn’t jump off the page at me, but I’ve seen a few runs from him, which give him an outside chance. Emperors Choice “chased” home Rigadin De Beauchene at Haydock, after landing another staying chase in the mud at Ffos Las. He seemed to be feeling the effects of those when pulling up in The Midlands National last time, and as I feel he’s more effective on a softer surface, then the anticipated faster going at Ayr, may not be to his liking. Summery Justice seems to be in reasonable heart, finishing a respectable fourth in The Midlands National, off the back of a win at Newbury, and as he’s not easy to totally dismiss, I’d make him the pick of her bunch, along with Ballyoliver. I can’t see Houblon Des Obeaux going here.

Roalco De Farges is vying for second favouritism, after getting back to winning ways last time. He’s trained by Philip Hobbs, another trainer who’s runners in this race are always worth a second look. Had a good spell on the sidelines, but with him seemingly back to his best, then it’s worth bearing in mind his second to Tidal Bay in the 2012 “Whitbread”. Interesting contender, but I’d love him to miss this, and take in that Sandown contest again. Hobbs also has Talkonthestreet entered, though he may struggle to get in, but he does look one for the future.

Fill The Power has been earmarked for this for a while now, and will be looking to improve on his fifth place last year. He’s no world beater, but a reliable enough yardstick all the same, and those wanting to take a stab just now, would find worse 40-1 shots, only 5lb higher than last year, and in decent form, should give supporters a proper run for their money.

Nicky Henderson isn’t a trainer I’d automatically look at straight away for a Scottish National winner, but both his Hadrians Approach, and Roberto Goldback are worth a second glance. He’s had his jumping issues, and he doesn’t get much respite from the handicapper, but Hadrians is still potentially a very decent animal, and if his jumping holds up, then off 146, he could have a prize like this in him. Roberto Goldback on the other hand, is getting a bit of helping hand, and is down another 2lb after an excellent third at Cheltenham, behind 2 horses who I hold in very high regard. Be great to see the 12 year old run well here, and it doesn’t look beyond him after his last run.

2 horses I really like for this are Ely Brown, and Trustan Times. I had a wee fancy for Ely for the 4 miler at The Festival, but he didn’t make it. Was highly tried last time Ascot in The Reynoldstown, and no shame in not getting competitive in that, against the likes of O’Failans Boy, and this is more his level. He’s taken well to fences, having previously been a reliable hurdler, and at 25’s he looks a live one. He’s definitely getting bet at some stage. Trustan Times already has the burden of my cash on him, but he’s a horse I like a lot. Difficult not to be enthusiastic about his run in The Pertemps, and a return to fences shouldn’t be an issue. For a horse who’s had very decent horses behind him in The Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock, he looks very nicely treated off 134, and is a strong fancy. I’ve bet him at 32’s to 34’s, as well as a few quid ew at 25’s, I just hope he goes……and gets in. I’m also eyeing him for next years Grand National.

Many Clouds was a bit disappointing at Aintree on Friday, and along with the aforementioned Vintage Star, also looking unlikely, then owner Trevor Hemmings, may turn his attention to Herdsman. Pulled up at Cheltenham, and looks to have a bit to find, but Hemmings will surely want a runner in this, and those looking for one whose likely to go, then Herdsman might appeal at 33’s. It’s hard to justify on his form, but I actually quite like the idea of this race for him.

Baile Ainrai was a decent second at Doncaster behind Night In Milan, before being found out in The Betbright. He’s since regained the winning thread at Fakenham, and is back up a couple of pounds to the mark he struggled off at Kempton. You could argue that he’s potentially weighted to the hilt, but I’ve just got this hunch, there’s more to come from him. The 4 miles round here, is a lot different from 3 round Kempton, and this might just suit. Interesting at 33’s.

It’s very unusual to see only one entry from the Pipe Stable for a prize like this, but that’s the case here, with Edmund Kean. Been given a low key campaign, and despite getting his head in front a couple of times, he looks unexposed. Given connections, he looks one to be very wary of

The Evan Williams challenger, King Massini, looks interesting. Seemed to be going the right way earlier in the season, and although not the hottest race, still looked the part when landing a handicap chase at Cheltenham. Considered good enough to take his chance at The Festival, it didn’t go to plan, and he fell in the race won by Holywell. He looked promising before that mishap, and he’s not one I’d be in a rush to overlook. The trainer also has Firebird Flyer entered, who looks touch and go to get in.

Alpha Victor, having had his own ideas earlier in the season, is finally getting things right, and his last 2 runs have been encouraging. His second at Uttoxeter shows that this trip won’t hold any fears for him, and bar refusing at Warwick, he’s actually been fairly consistent, and hasn’t been unduly punished. Any rain would be a benefit for this 25-1 shot.

If I thought he’d sneak in, then I’d take a risk on Son Of Flicka at 50-1, but his chances look slim, and he’s running at Market Rasen today anyway. He caught the eye in The Veterans Chase, won by Tranquil Sea, doing some good work at the end, and he went into the notebook for marathon trips over the larger obstacles. He’s since ran down the field in The Coral Hurdle, but it may just be his future lies in tests like this. If he doesn’t make it, then I’ll keep in mind for future targets, something like The Summer National.

Ballypatrick, his awkward head carriage and all, keeps knocking on the door, and although I’d expect him to lack the gears for the business end, he looks the type to keep on for a place, and could give punters a bit of fun at 40’s.

I’d only consider any Irish challengers nearer the time, but I’d love to see Sole Witness, or the improving See Double You make the trip, but impossible to take too much interest at this stage.

Always like to give a nod to a rag, and Pure Faith of Peter Bowens, has stamina to prove, but he’s got bits and pieces that could see him bely his odds of 50-1. He’s not been out since October, and may just have been kept fresh for this.

That’s more than enough for now, and loads more not mentioned, but enough entries that catch the eye anyway.

Happy to take the chance on Trustan Times, and very keen on adding Ely Brown, and Tour Des Champs/Same Difference from the NTD stable, but I’ll leave for now. The JP/Jonjo pair of Shutthtefrontdoor, and Alfie Sherrin pose a problem too, along with Green Flag, and Midnight Appeal…….

You can’t bet em all.

Edit: Currently very wet in Ayrshire[/color:2nlu9l28]