- This topic has 22 replies, 11 voices, and was last updated 11 years, 11 months ago by
.
- Posts
Known in various guises over the years, participants now have a marathon trip of 3m 5f to overcome. The roll of honour contains some great old NH names, though it has to be said, the race probably doesn’t attract the calibre of old, it least can be seen as a proper Grand National trial, with 6 of the last 11 winners going on to try their luck at Aintree. Neptune Collonges went very close to the double in 2012, finishing second to Giles Cross, and in 97, Suny Bay won here, before only finding Lord Gyllene too good at Aintree.
Coming a few days after the weights are released for The Grand National, it may just be the perfect race for a few to show their true colours
Current favourite for this, and joint favourite for Aintree is Monbeg Dude. A fine performance last time out at Cheltenham, and difficult to see him not getting involved here. As Mark TT pointed out on The Grand National thread……
Fitness permitting, i think it starts at no bigger than 10-1 given it catchy name for the OAY punters, with Peter Scudamore also likely to give it a massive mention in the Daily Mail.
…….he’s likely to be well backed for Aintree anyway, so those with The National in mind for him, might just be advised to take the 20’s while it’s still available. Already showing a bit of blue on oddschecker for Aintree, another decent show on Saturday, and that will disappear. Although he can be a bit of a sketchy jumper at times, he looks primed to at least repeat his third in this last year.
In front of him last year were Well Refreshed, and Rigadin De Beauchene. Both have thrown in some howlers since then, and although he may find the conditions of this race just perfect, it may just be that Well Refreshed has been a little harshly treated for that win. Still, no way I’m going to discount any horse coming back to the scene of success. Could easily see Rigadin coming out on top of the 2 this time round. Back to the same mark as last year, and his trainer, Venetia Williams is bang in form, the 20’s
still available surely can’t last for long.Hawkes Point must have a chance based on his second to Mountainous at Chepstow, and although that race could have left his mark on him, he’d be very dangerous to dismiss. He’s also entered up at Ascot on Saturday, though he’s already jocked up for Haydock, with Ryan Mahon booked. Live contender.
One horse who I think could be a real dark horse for Aintree is Our Father. He’s got to be forgiven a rather lacklustre display in The Hennessy, but he has ran well fresh in the past, and he’s been given plenty of time to rest since then. He’s on a nice handy mark at the moment, and wouldn’t surprise me if Aintree has been part of a long term plan for him. On his day, very capable of a big run.
Last years Scottish National winner, Godsmejudge was one of my early hopes for Aintree success this season, and although he’s not started the season well, his trainer Alan King is beginning to get going again, and he remains one of interest. Not sure if he’d have my money on him for this, but he’s very definitely better than he’s shown so far this season. Also entered up at Ascot.
Donald McCain has Across The Bay, and Sydney Paget entered, and preference would be for ATB of the two. His win at Haydock last time, over a similar trip, makes him very appealing, but worth noting that he holds other engagements, so probably best waiting until final decs are known. Sydney Paget has questions to answer after his win earlier in the season, and though he’s the type to pop up again, I’d like to see him come down a couple of pounds. His last run may also have left it’s mark.
The same could be said of the winner that day, Wychwood Brook. In his favour though, is that he still appears to be progressing, and this would be 3 on the bounce. If over the exertions of last time, he still looks feasibly treated.
Also figuring that day was Merry King, who battled well to finish third. He’s getting into the habit of always finding 1 or 2 too good, and that was his 4th hard race of the season…….but coming from the Jonjo yard there’s just the suspicion that it’s part of a longer term plan, and with Aintree in mind, he’d go there on a very handy mark. The gloves may just come off on Saturday. Jonjo also has the very interesting Burton Port entered up. It could be argued that he’s on the downgrade, and he’s difficult to make a case for, however, it’s only a couple of years since he was thought of as a Gold Cup horse, and after some uninspiring efforts over both fences and hurdles, he’s quietly came down 19lbs in the weights in less than 2 years. Wouldn’t be the biggest shock to see him return to form, with the weights for Aintree already framed. 33’s for this, though also entered up at Ascot, along with his stablemate.
Loch Ba, who I’ve mentioned many times before, also makes some appeal. Although I doubt he’d have beaten the winner at Warwick last time, he’d have finished a lot closer but for almost falling down the back. Nursed back into it, he eventually finished 4th, and I don’t think conditions here should faze him at all. Connections sensibly swerved the Skybet Chase, and it may just be they’ll be rewarded with a big run on Saturday. 16’s looks fair.
Another eyecatching entry is Nuts n Bolts, from the Lucinda Russell yard, and she knows what it takes to land this, having won it twice with the ill-fated Silver By Nature. Bit disappointing in The Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby last time, but his win round here earlier in the season is still fresh in the mind, and on that run, should he make the journey, he can’t be ignored.
I’ve a soft spot for Soll, but he was out on his feet last time, and I think he’s got too many doubts surrounding him now, not to mention asking him to perform here a fortnight later. Hats off to him if he can do it, but I just think Aintree in the spring will be more up his street.
I bet Emperors Choice last time out, though with this race coming over a fortnight since that slog in the mud at Ffos Las, he’s another who might just find this coming too quickly. However, as he’s another coming from the Venetia Williams yard, I’ll no be daft enough to write him off completely.
I hit the crossbar with Wellforth last month here, having bet him at 50’s (I’m only writing about this race so I can mention that bet) and he gave me a proper run for my money. He’s been slowly returning to form this season, having lost his way for a while, and although only 4th next time out, it was a big ask to turn out again so quickly. At 25’s he makes serious each way appeal, as I think he’d be likely to head for this.
La Reve looks to have plenty on his plate, however he comes here with a similar profile to Shotgun Paddy in the Betfred Classic at Warwick, having spent the season running in small field Novice Chases. An “unknown” if you will.
Finally, Red Rocco, the outsider of the field, and seemingly up against it. However, after The Betfair Hurdle, it would take a brave man to oppose any big priced runner from the NTD yard. 2 disappointing runs to overcome, but he’s another who’s ran well here this season, having finished runner up behind Nuts n Bolts.
After all that, no bet for me at the moment, but very interested in a few of them. Swaying towards Our Father, or Loch Ba, and also have Wellforth, and Rigadin De Beauchene in mind from an each way perspective.
Backed The Dude all this season and will do so again come Saturday.
Nuts N Bolts and Merry King take my interest too. Like you mention; Merry King just seems to be finding one or two too good on the day, but his consistency must be admired. A really tough individual who one would imagine will still be going once others start feeling the pinch. I have an eye on Aintree for this one, and another good run here should make him one of my sure fire bets for the big one.
Nuts N Bolts ran too bad a race to be true last time out and am willing to forgive it. He won too well before then to ignore him should he line up
The fact Trevor Hemmings’ only runner is Burton Port suggests that he must be going the right way.
Double for Jonjo today at Catterick. Oh yes.
OOps; sorry, been flitting about; thought we were talking about the National
For a minute thought one of my ante posts had gone up the Swanee already 
Burton Port is very interesting to me as well.
What was the story with him moving from Henderson to Jonjo? Trevor Hemmings doesn’t move his horses around very often, even when they do get a little jaded. Was there some sort of fall-out or is Jonjo just a better Grand National trainer?
If it is the latter (after Don’t Push It and Sunnyhillboy it might well be!) then Burton Port is exciting. In his prime, he always shaped like a powerful stayer who found 3 miles the bare minimum – reminiscent of Neptune Collonges in some ways. Hopefully there are some encouraging signs from BP here.
I can’t believe he’s anything like the horse he was but he’s certainly bred to win a National. Surely he’s moved to Jonjo as a last ditched attempt to bring him back to something like he was. Mind you, I hope I’m wrong. If there’s one owner that deserves good horses it’s Mr Hemmings.
I didn’t intend having a bet here, but Paul Kealy, in The Weekender, makes a very fair case for Loch Ba and I’m happy to take the standout 14s with Ladbrokes.
I’ve been expecting Loch Ba to win one of these this season but he’s been held up and keeps staying on without threatening the winner. Chepstow would have been an ideal track.
Is Emperor’s Choice not running here ? Seems well in. The quick reappearance shouldn’t be a problem as he won two staying chases 9 days apart last season.
Backed The Dude all this season and will do so again come Saturday.
Nuts N Bolts and Merry King take my interest too. Like you mention; Merry King just seems to be finding one or two too good on the day, but his consistency must be admired. A really tough individual who one would imagine will still be going once others start feeling the pinch. I have an eye on Aintree for this one, and another good run here should make him one of my sure fire bets for the big one.
Nuts N Bolts ran too bad a race to be true last time out and am willing to forgive it. He won too well before then to ignore him should he line up
I got a word for Nuts N Bolts for the Scottish National but it didn’t happen for him then.
I am with you on
Merry King
, he has been on my radar for a good while now. I thought he was sure to drop back through the field quite rapidly last time out, because of the way several horses swept past him as the race began to unfold. He seemed to very much find a second wind to come through for third from what looked a highly unlikely position. 10-2 is a nice weight for a horse who has not won much yet but who has run well in a few decent races. Another placed effort on Saturday (if weather allows) will surely see his credentials for Aintree look a bit more solid.
As far as Saturday goes, he has run two good races at Haydock on Heavy ground already, beaten a nose on one occasion. With the extra distance this time, it all points to him being thereabouts again and he gets a 10pts each way for me at 12/1 and 20pts each way 40/1 for the National itself.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Doesn’t Merry King have to win this or see about 30 horses withdraw to qualify for the National, then make a mockery of the 7 year old stat ?
Far from convinced he’ll stay that far at present.
It’s a bit ifs and buts for Merry King but it is worth the chance at 40/1 and the bet will pay for itself if all goes well tomorrow. AP is on now and the 12/1 is down to a best 7/1 as I write.
With the National fences not being what they were, it is perhaps a time where previous trends may not hold as true as they once did.
Life is about taking a chance and trying to anticipate change.
(Probably he’ll go flat on his erse now!)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’m in the Merry King camp too, but I’m a bit pissed at myself that I didn’t back him a bit sooner than I did. I was looking at him early in the week when there was 16/1 generally available, admittedly that was before several horses were taken out. I had a spare £50 in my betfred account courtesy of Dustin Johnson in the AT&T last week, and they were only offering 10/1 when he was still 12/1 elsewhere at that point. I held off hoping they might drift him out a little and not have to stick £50 elsewhere. Of course the money came rolling in and I ended up taking the 9/1 with betfred. He has dropped to 7/1 so I guess it could have been worse.
I’m having a bit of e/w too in the shape of Rigidin De Beauchene. I think Venetia Williams has her yard in rude health at the moment, and this is just the type of slog through the mud that her horses relish. Admittedly RDB has not run since the Scottish National, where he was pulled up after making a horlicks of the 15th. He ran in this race last year and was a decent second to a well treated blot on the handicap of Gary Moore’s, Well Refreshed, who was promptly raised 13lbs for that. He also finished 9 lengths ahead of Monbeg Dude that day.
He is running off the same mark of 131, and I’m hoping that Venetia has had this as the plan since that race. Paddy Power and Coral still have him at 16/1 at this point, but I don’t think that will be his price come the off.
I’m hoping for a little pot for Cheltenham and if either of these came in that would go a bit towards that. A one two would be nice, with Merry King winning as he is on the nose, or is that just being plain greedy.
I somehow found myself deserting Merry King
As i looked at this race last night i was just more attracted to Emperors Choice. I just fear that Merry King might have had too tough a season already. Not many horses get over their Welsh National excursions so promptly and i just wonder if him running in the Peter Marsh so soon afterwards (and running such a decent race there) might just put him over the top?Perhaps i’m just being cynical or looking for an excuse to back a horse at a bigger price
Odds are… i’ll be red faced come the days end.Also have Nuts N Bolts with Tullamore Dew in my ‘outsider double’
Merry King folded like a squeeze box today and looks a bit of an enigma for now. 9/2 was a silly price in the conditions today.
That was a horrible race to watch, a real war of attrition where even the winner was at a crawl from a fair way out. I suppose only backers of the winner would have gained a modicum of enjoyment from viewing horses struggling from a long way out.
That’s it until Cheltenham for me, I’m fed up with all the mud and blunder.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Oh the contrary, Steve. That was a cracking race to watch in my opinion.
I prefer to see them properly sorted out and coming home at wide margins rather than finishing fresh as they often do on the summer ground. I feel like the best (or best handicapped) horse tends to win on heavy ground – it’s a pure result. Otherwise, it often comes down to which jockey kicks at the right time.
still available surely can’t last for long.
For a minute thought one of my ante posts had gone up the Swanee already 
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.