Oaks 2013

9/4 is a scandalous price for Secret Gesture with over a week to go.

Shame on you Bet Victor & Hills and the rest aren’t much better in offering best price 5/2.

Whether you think she’ll win or not is irrelavent because that is simply no value at all.

Possibly the bookies are expecting Moth to swerve the race but even if she does AOB won’t be without a runner and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Say come in for money and 12s could be too big at the moment with the uncertainty surrounding her stablemate.

As EGS says, I find it hard to believe they’ll be able to let the jolly go off any shorter than she already is come the day.

Lee

9/4 is plenty short at first glance but I have a feeling this could be a really small field come the day. If Moth does go for the Irish 1000 Guineas there would be little strength in depth outside the first two in the market. Banoffee won a race that didn’t look good to me beforehand, I backed Charlie Hills’ Premium that day and she never had a chance held up in rear and not getting a clear run, the fifth horse in the race Hollowina then ran behind Liber Nauticus and was beaten by about 3 lengths further than she was behind Banoffee. On all reasonable logic, with improvement and the extra distance certain to suit Stoute’s candidate, it is hard to see Banoffee triumphing in the big one.

Say seems to be one of the typical horses that punters scratch around for after the prices on the fancied ones have dried up. Unraced on anything other than soft/heavy, she has only a maiden win in a four runner race at odds of 1/6 to her name and a bit worryingly it was a mile and a half maiden, not really the type of trial for a classic. The second horse that day, Silky Pyrus is still a maiden after eight attempts and is rated about 70. She has also run again since, dropped to a mile, in a 60-90 handicap on heavy at Killarney, and was beaten almost 15 lengths in 4th, just behind the odds on O’Brien horse League Of Nations who flopped badly and the winner was a horse rated 68 beforehand. Based on that form, I think 12/1 is shockingly bad value, rather than being too big.

If we hypothesise for a moment and assume Moth doesn’t turn up on the day and then pretend that Secret Gesture is trained by Aiden O’Brien. What odds on Secret Gesture in that scenario?

I think Talent has been a bit overlooked for this. Although she’s apparently Becketts second string she won the Pretty Polly in decent style over 1m2f, and looks pretty genuine. Secret Gesture may be the more flashy fancied runner but at 14/1 I’d be willing to side with Talent.

Moth. all the way.

Hopefully with a decent jockey on it…

I note that Moth is around 5/1 2nd fav behind Just The Judge for the Irish 1000 Guineas. Surely she can’t run there and at Epsom?

Her price for the Oaks has slipped out slightly with Secret Gesture hardening to as low as 9/4.

Perhaps connections are worried about her coping with the track at Epsom?

Can anyone be confident of what Coolmore are thinking ?

Maybe they think Moth can win the Irish 1000 and leave probably Secret Gesture – by their star sire – or possibly their other horse Say to hopefully win the Oaks

The stable could win the Oaks but it would be better if Galileo sired both winners.

You can never be totally confident without inside information. It just seems odd to me that they would take on Just The Judge again, having to reverse form with her, rather than go to Epsom and hope that she handles the track

and

stays the extra distance. Either way she looks short enough for me with more question marks than some of her rivals.

To my eyes the front three don’t look anywhere near as strong as the market indicates. It wouldn’t take much for something to improve (if required) to their level and on the basis of a weak renewal and relatively small field I have sided with the Bell duo of Madame Defarge and The Lark.

Last year’s winner Was came in largely unheralded at 20/1 so you never know. I am not sure this year’s race is any worse than last year’s though. Out of 33 subsequent runs only The Fugue won a race and she disappointed a couple of times afterwards.

I do think your gals need to improve though. Talent beat Madame Defarge last time and I thought The Lark was a bit disappointing behind Winsili, who goes to The Ribblesdale rather than Epsom.

To my eyes the front three don’t look anywhere near as strong as the market indicates. It wouldn’t take much for something to improve (if required) to their level and on the basis of a weak renewal and relatively small field I have sided with the Bell duo of Madame Defarge and The Lark.

Last year’s winner Was came in largely unheralded at 20/1 so you never know. I am not sure this year’s race is any worse than last year’s though. Out of 33 subsequent runs only The Fugue won a race and she disappointed a couple of times afterwards.

I do think your gals need to improve though. Talent beat Madame Defarge last time and I thought The Lark was a bit disappointing behind Winsili, who goes to The Ribblesdale rather than Epsom.

They probably do need to improve but no more so than for example Say who is a pretty ridiculous 12/1 – has she even achieved as much as The Lark? To be fair I think both of mine could do with a drop of rain and Madame Defarge doesn’t have an ideal head carriage. Having said that I am happy to take a couple of small punts at 25/1 and 50/1. I would be pretty hopeful Madame Defarge could reverse the previous form and I suspect The Lark could well be a good deal better than a literal interpretation of the Newbury run.

Fair enough Stilvi, it’s all a game of opinions anyway. My point of view is that Secret Gesture is different gravy- I think she’d hack all over a limited horse like Winsili, and I think she’ll prove how good she is in the Oaks, but of course I could be completely wrong.

As you point out it throws up a completely different test to what they’ve gone through before, so you never know how they’ll cope with it.

On form and breeding the market has probably got this right with the front two so no bet for me. I’d have a suspicion that Banoffee would want faster ground than is likely to prevail. She’d actually be a place lay for me given her breeding and form don’t inspire me and especially if the ground has soft in the description.

Secret Gesture was impressive but on form that run means she has to improve to win. Moth probably has the form in the bag to win but

Secret Gesture at Lingfield just looked like she could be something special.

There is nothing special about the prices in the race, however, so can’t see a reason to have a bet.

Ok whether we should call it a nice boost or a huge boost isn’t that important, but even if the race wasn’t the strongest you can’t deny that Elik won quite nicely at Goodwood and did have some bad luck at Chester when behind Banoffee. My point was more to do with the supplementing of Banoffee by connections for the race, they must think she has some sort of chance. True, soft ground would be a worry, so will wait until Friday to play my cards.

I didn’t say the form of SG was

more

dubious, just that a 10l win does cast some doubt over the strength of that race. I appreciate you providing the collateral form which I found useful, but there’s this nagging doubt in my mind whether she could reproduce that run against some high class horses. I’m still drawn to her stablemate Talent who I think promises to stay the trip and has already shown some high class form by winning the Pretty Polly.

All depends on the state of the ground for me, will review the situation again on Friday morning!

Does it worry you at all that Ralph Beckett doesn’t really have Talent in his thoughts and only has eyes for Secret Gesture?