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Surprised that there’s no thread for this yet.
Moth is all the rage following her staying-on third in the Guineas but she didn’t appear to handle Newmarket’s undulations all that well and I can’t see her acting around Epsom. Liber Nauticus is well touted and we’ll have to see what she produces next week in the Musidora. If she were mine Hot Snap would be aimed at the race, but she isn’t.
That leaves Secret Gesture as the most likely winner. She whipped around Lingfield as though she were on rails yesterday and made the second, no mean performer herself, look like a selling plater. Stable confidence is high and she looks the bet at this stage.
Can’t see a thread about the Derby either?
I too was very impressed by Secret Gesture at Lingfield. She certainly has the stamp of her sire about her. However there are at least a couple of worries
Firstly the opposition was dire. Maybe the Lingfield Derby and Oaks trials were never the premier trials, but they seem to be becoming worse and worse. At this rate they’ll struggle to retain listed, let alone group status.
Secondly the last two Epsom Oaks have been run at a crawl. Very unsatisfactory, likely to turn up a random result and count against the true staying fillies like Secret Gesture, and if they repeat that this year, that would certainly count against her.
Lastly the possibility of quick ground, something she’s never run on.
I was at Lingfield on Saturday and Secret Gesture couldn’t have been more impressive.
True, she ultimately didn’t have much to beat but weather conditions were atrocious and she didn’t seem in the slightest bit bothered.
Prior to Saturday I couldn’t see past Moth – due to lack of a viable alternative and given that all the other 1,000 Guineas main protagonists will be missing from Epsom but I still can’t shake the rider’s post race quote that she wants a flatter track – Epsom is certainly not that.
Stoute’s will be interesting on Wednesday but unless there’s a special performance there I’ll be siding with Becket to get his brace up.
Lee
Prior to the 1000 Guineas i backed Moth for the Oaks at 12/1 and having watched the race couldn’t be be happier,but Josephs comments about wanting a flat track and Secret Gesture winning so impressively at Lingfield has me worried,to be honest i think we saw the Oaks winner on Saturday
Can’t see a thread about the Derby either?
I too was very impressed by Secret Gesture at Lingfield. She certainly has the stamp of her sire about her. However there are at least a couple of worries
Firstly the opposition was dire. Maybe the Lingfield Derby and Oaks trials were never the premier trials, but they seem to be becoming worse and worse. At this rate they’ll struggle to retain listed, let alone group status.
Secondly the last two Epsom Oaks have been run at a crawl. Very unsatisfactory, likely to turn up a random result and count against the true staying fillies like Secret Gesture, and if they repeat that this year, that would certainly count against her.
Lastly the possibility of quick ground, something she’s never run on.
There’s been a Derby thread since July last year!
Can’t see a thread about the Derby either?
I too was very impressed by Secret Gesture at Lingfield. She certainly has the stamp of her sire about her. However there are at least a couple of worries
Firstly the opposition was dire. Maybe the Lingfield Derby and Oaks trials were never the premier trials, but they seem to be becoming worse and worse. At this rate they’ll struggle to retain listed, let alone group status.
Secondly the last two Epsom Oaks have been run at a crawl. Very unsatisfactory, likely to turn up a random result and count against the true staying fillies like Secret Gesture, and if they repeat that this year, that would certainly count against her.
Lastly the possibility of quick ground, something she’s never run on.
Loads of good horses line up in races where the opposition is dire but very few dismantle the field in such clinical fashion. Maybe a couple of pirouette’s before the line would have helped sway the doubters.
On the ground front, connections have always said that they feel Secret Gesture would be better on a faster surface and they were concerned before her win last year about the soft going and pleasantly surprised when she handled it.
Beckett has another contender for the race in the shape of Talent and, although in different ownership, she was said to have raced keenly last time and it would obviously help if she did make the running.
I am on her at a price and have reservations about Moth who came past a non-staying Winning Express late on in the Guineas. I will watch Liber Nauticus and perhaps have a saver on her if she impresses in what has turned into a small field Musidora.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Can’t see a thread about the Derby either?
I too was very impressed by Secret Gesture at Lingfield. She certainly has the stamp of her sire about her. However there are at least a couple of worries
Firstly the opposition was dire. Maybe the Lingfield Derby and Oaks trials were never the premier trials, but they seem to be becoming worse and worse. At this rate they’ll struggle to retain listed, let alone group status.
Secondly the last two Epsom Oaks have been run at a crawl. Very unsatisfactory, likely to turn up a random result and count against the true staying fillies like Secret Gesture, and if they repeat that this year, that would certainly count against her.
Lastly the possibility of quick ground, something she’s never run on.
There’s been a Derby thread since July last year!
I only look at the first page, too lazy to delve any deeper
Was Secret Gesture that impressive?
The runner up pulled his head off as well as the jockeys arms for a couple of furlongs then he decided to let her go and she shot off like a bullet, wide around the turn and still ended up second.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Liber Nauticus was workmanlike in the end. To be honest I thought I had done my money when the Gosden filly moved up in the straight on the snaff and Ryan was rowing along.
But she responded and you know she’ll stay. Secret gesture and Moth have greater speed probably, but if they go a proper pace in the Oaks I can just see this filly coming up with the goods at the business end.
Looks-wise she’s a lovely filly and she reminds me of North Light. She’s got a great name for an Oaks winner and it would be nice to see Sir Michael winning big races again.
Well, the Oaks is to all intents and purposes a three horse race according to the betting, Ladbrokes are going:-
5/2 Moth
5/2 Secret Gesture
3/1 Liber NauticusCould be a small field in prospect, perhaps for the Derby as well.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Fail to see how anything shown is better than Liber Nauticus. Backed at 10s, 5s and 7/2.
Moth. all the way.
Hopefully with a decent jockey on it…
I note that Moth is around 5/1 2nd fav behind Just The Judge for the Irish 1000 Guineas. Surely she can’t run there and at Epsom?
Her price for the Oaks has slipped out slightly with Secret Gesture hardening to as low as 9/4.
Perhaps connections are worried about her coping with the track at Epsom?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Was Secret Gesture that impressive
?
The runner up pulled his head off as well as the jockeys arms for a couple of furlongs then he decided to let her go and she shot off like a bullet, wide around the turn and still ended up second.
Sorry post edited wires crossed. (Wrong horse.
)Secret gesture is very short now, she’s 3.45 on Betfair. I would recommend leaving the price alone as I doubt she’ll be any shorter on the day and could well drift out- if there’s money for the Stoute or O’brien fillies.
Liber Nauticus I love to death but I just wonder if she’ll be killed for speed. There’s no getting around the fact that she hasn’t been impressive on the clock. I know Sir Michael would have left something to work on, but even so you would have hoped that she would have kicked on and won a poor Musidora by 5/6 lengths but she didn’t do that.
Moth is hugely respected given the connections, her breeding suggesting she’ll stay and how she finished in the Guineas. However there doesn’t seem to be much confidence in her betting wise and I notice she’s been left in the five-day decs for the Irish 1000- she surely won’t run in both but you do wonder if even the trainer himself is in two minds whether or not to keep her at a mile or step her up.
Given the first three in the field have a break on the field (with the possible exception of Banoffee) that for me leaves Secret Gesture.
Of all the Galileo’s i’ve seen, this is the one that reminds me most of her sire. She has all the looks, cruising speed, athleticism, and class he had in droves. She’s made for Epsom and I can just see her cruising around and putting the race to bed in the home straight.
In fact I don’t want to jinx her but it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if after the race we were talking about a new middle-distance superstar- one who could potentially take on the colts in the Irish Derby, Salsabil style. However I still think there might be some logic behind leaving her price alone now- I very much doubt she’ll be sent off 6-4
Now I really should go back to bed what i’m doing up at this hour is anyone’s guess!
9/4 is a scandalous price for Secret Gesture with over a week to go.
Shame on you Bet Victor & Hills and the rest aren’t much better in offering best price 5/2.
Whether you think she’ll win or not is irrelavent because that is simply no value at all.
Possibly the bookies are expecting Moth to swerve the race but even if she does AOB won’t be without a runner and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Say come in for money and 12s could be too big at the moment with the uncertainty surrounding her stablemate.
As EGS says, I find it hard to believe they’ll be able to let the jolly go off any shorter than she already is come the day.
Lee
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