Derby 2012

At least for Hayley.

Looks like Gosden agrees with you

I really can’t get my head round Camelot. AOB seems to be convinced he’s really special but to me he looks as ordinary a classic winner as I can remember.

I think you have to do a Ginger here and go for the value Camelot seems way too short for my liking.

I might close my eyes until the race and back ginger’s selection…..all 17 of them

mordin seems to rate bonfire highly:

POSTED ON MAY 22, 2012

BONFIRE SHOULD BE DERBY FAVOURITE AFTER DANTE WIN

BONFIRE (42) put up a top class performance when taking the Dante. Normally there is some room for debate about which horse has run the best Derby Trial and how much they can improve at Epsom. But this run leaves no doubts because Bonfire ran as fast as almost any Derby winner. There is no question in my mind that if he reproduces this run he should win the Derby.

I liked the way Bonfire got the better of a sustained duel with the runner up that saw the pair power clear of the rest over the last quarter mile. I also liked the way he found a bit extra to kick away in the last 75 yards.

You can make a decent case for saying that Bonfire won’t stay the extra furlong and a half at Epsom. After all he has the build of a ten furlong horse. His pedigree points the same way too. And his dam, her four foals and her three siblings have so far failed to win beyond ten furlongs. However you could have made similar arguments for many Dante winners, but the last twenty or more all stayed a mile and a half, if only at Epsom where the long downhill run to the straight makes it so much easier for doubtful stayers to last home.

The clincher for me is the way Bonfire kicked clear late following a good early pace and a sustained duel with the runner up. If he fails to stay the mile and a half at Epsom having done that I’d be very surprised.

Seeing how well he performed in the Dante it is interesting to look back at Bonfire’s previous runs.

He won a one mile maiden at Salisbury on soft ground first time out.

He was ponied down to the start for that race and seemed to be caught by surprise when the stalls opened – hesitating then jinking to his left.

The slow start caused a wall of horses to be in front of Bonfire in a densely packed field, so traffic problems looked a big possibility. But his jockey waited patiently for the gap caused by the junction of the courses then urged him forward. He saw another gap towards his left, nudged him towards it and the race was soon over. Bonfire only had to be nudged along from there.

Inside the last furlong Bonfire was just coasting along with little effort when he seemed to spot something in the distance (almost certainly the entrance to the stables). Despite the sheepskin noseband he was wearing his head came up to get a better view of what he was looking at He pricked his ears and started to run a bit faster and was hard to pull up after crossing the line.

It wasn’t a great race but Bonfire won it as if it was no more than an exercise canter. The noseband, the quirky behaviour in the last furlong and the fact he needed to be ponied to the start all raised the idea that he was very green and needed more experience.

Next time out Bonfire was stepped up to Group 1 company for the Criterium International at Saint-Cloud. He was allowed to drop back through the field after a good start to race ninth of the eleven runners.

As with his first run, traffic problems soon looked likely as there seemed to be no gaps he could take to improve his position approaching halfway. His jockey may have been anticipating a gap opening up as they rounded the home turn since the field often makes its way towards the stands rail on soft ground at Saint-Cloud, creating a huge gap for horses that were racing on the inside. But that did not happen in this race, so Bonfire was totally bottled up with nowhere to go.

With three hundred metres left Bonfire’s jockey was forced to take a pull as a gap closed in front of him. He was visibly full of run at that point. It wasn’t until 200 metres out that a gap finally appeared and by then French Fifteen had already started to charge down the outside. It was simply too late for Bonfire to get to the lead but he surged forwards to take third, gaining ground hand over fist all the way to the line despite only being pushed out hands and heels.

With a clear run Bonfire might very well have run. Certainly it would have been close between him and French Fifteen who clocked a seriously good time.

That French run suggests Bonfire is highly manoeuvrable, as does his physique. This is an obvious plus for Epsom.

The only legitimate concern I can see about the Derby for Bonfire is the one expressed by his trainer before the Dante. He said he was worried that Bonfire might not have time to recover from a tough race in the Dante in the two and a half weeks before the Derby.

Certainly Bonfire had a fairly hard race in the Dante. But it was still his seasonal debut and the vast majority of horses that run best fresh can take their first two runs of the season back to back before they need to be rested.

Runner up EKTIHAAM (41) is a big-bodied, powerful sort that is not as well balanced as the winner. Indeed he apparently got unbalanced at Newmarket the only time he was asked to tackle anything but a dead flat track. Here he was held up last and then surged forward with three furlongs left and soon engaged in a prolonged duel with Bonfire. He pulled well clear of the rest in his efforts to get by Bonfire but couldn’t quite do so.

Trainer Roger Varian felt that Bonfire saw out the distance a bit better than Ektihaam, so he plans on keeping him to a mile and a quarter for now.

Third placed FENCING (38) could not go with the first two in the closing stages. But he was so far clear of the rest that his jockey only rode him out hands and heels for most of the final furlong. This was a clear improvement on his Guineas run which he clearly needed. He may very well be able to improve again in the Derby, though I concede it’s hard to see him reversing placings with the winner.

I might close my eyes until the race and back ginger’s selection…..all 17 of them

Geez he’ll be in trouble if there’s 18 runners Hurdy!Oh no he’ll have a saver of a saver of a saver on it!

I just read Nick Mordin’s extended report on Bonfire.I came to the exact same conclusion by just watching the race.Is all that analysis really necessary? I mean, do I need to know how he got to the Dante?

Please dont send me to the funny farm but I think Tower Rock could get placed at 50-1 on the basis of stepping up in trip. Ive had a few quid on at 50/1 with bet 365 who are NRNB.

It looks a better field than turned up for the 2010 renewal for a start. Then there was no Guineas winner and no Dante winner.
There are several editions from the 18th and 19th centuries that were desperate in hindsight.

Dont be silly, the Derby was not instituted until 1780. 1821 saw the first grey to win the Derby. Gustavus was sent off favourite having won the Newmarket Stakes ahead of Reginald, winner of the 2000 Guineas. Gustavus was not a great Derby winner but he was a fair stallion as his fee had doubled by 1827, at which time he was standing at the Rose and Crown, Beverley. I wonder if the pub needed an entertainment licence?

I’m not all convinced by Camelot. Even though he’s unbeaten and has a classic under his belt, I think he’s a touch overrated. Of course, I can’t rule him out and think he’ll run a good race but I don’t see him as the potential champion that some people are already making him out to be. His price is terrible.

Bonfire has my vote. Looks a tough, genuine sort … the type who won’t give in without a fight.

The Derby has a happy family look to it with Aiden and son Joseph favourites to steal the show but I’m not convinced they are the family carrying the lolly home.

The racing Post was a poor race and the Guineas wasn’t much better. There wasn’t bundles of cash coming across the English Chanel for the runner up the 3rd has been stuffed since as have the 4th and 6th.

If that had been a a maiden you would certainly question the form but because it’s another AOB best horse in the world, people tend to accept he must be very special.

The Dante on the other hand looked a proper Derby trial to me. Bonfire hit the front sooner than I would expect he will at Epsom and Fencing came there cruising as did Ektiham but Jimmy Fortune was always in control and looked to have plenty left in the locker.

One things for sure Bonfire won’t back out of a fight and that’s a big plus if push comes to shove which I reckon it will do here

On one hand you have a horse who has never ran beyond a mile who is said to be by his trainer a very special horse while on the other you have an impressive Dante winner.

I’m more than hopeful the famous Balding nose band carried by Mill Reef in 1971 will cross the line first at Epsom and Andrew can join his father as a Derby winning trainer.

Bonfire