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I was up to see Black Caviar.
I take it she will be rated the best/2nd best horse on the planet by Racing Post Ratings on Monday?
The simple maths is as follows;
Hay List is rated 128 for beating True Persuasion (120) by 2.5l, Eagle Falls a further 1.25l behind.
Black Caviar has beat True Persuasion by 6.25l and Eagle Falls by 7.25l. Even Stanzout adds credibility to it all.
Not a hope of Black Caviar being rated in the 130’s, but this is what happens when numbers are made up unnecessarily.
I don’t quite know what to make of SYT win. Once the emotion is removed from it all; he won a 600m sprint that only he or More Joyous could of won, didn’t he? I would love to think he has more left for next weekend and the MC – the last 200m tells me there’s not a lot left. The acceleration when taking on More Joyous was wonderful. Brilliant horse.
The race didn’t knock any MC hopes out.
Zipping is really a 2400m horse who hasn’t won The BMW he should of. "Team Williams" aren’t going to decline another MC run for him it seems. I’m hoping he’s ready to win the Sandown Classic for a 4th time.
Shoot Out ran "OK."
And Precedence won the MV Cup as he should of. Another 1.5kg penalty for the MC. Good to see Carpenter trying to make up for the flaws in the entry system.
I will just state at this stage I’m firmly with Monaco Consul and Shocking for the MC. It gives the thread some purpose for when I’m wrong.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/super … 5943001980
You have to laugh at it in some-ways. It was simply an effort to bump Precedence up the order of entry in an effort to stop a regular complaint that occurs every year.
http://springracingcarnival.com.au/asse … 251010.pdf
Updated order of entry.
At this stage Holberg, Drunken Sailor and Eastern Aria are not going to get in.
http://www.couriermail.com.au/sport/sup … 5943420003
Internationalising the Melbourne Cup does not come cheap. This year RVL is offering Hilton Hotel rooms for a week to selected racing media from the northern hemisphere.
Quite liked the above article. I did wonder why Claude Duval said he was going to the MC on the Sunday Forum. At least I have the answer… I will just inform RVL that his 2 inches in the poor quality newspaper, if you call it that, named The Sun is not worth the "freebee."A few week back in work , I was give a tip AMERICAIN it was 40-1 then ! 10s now here’s hoping ( I would have put it up by was not a member then !)
Lexus Stakes (Group 3, 2500m)
1Alcopop
(10) B Shinn 57
2Herculian Prince
(8) G Schofield 57
3Mourayan
(13) S King 56.5
4Red Ruler
(12) M Rodd 56.5
5Linton
(5) G Boss 55.5
67
8
Moudre
(1) C Williams 54.5
910
Count Encosta
(4) C Newitt 53
11Cedarberg
(2) C Symons 53
12Maluckyday
(11) J Cassidy 53
13Stanstill
(3) L Nolen 53
14Gothic Crown
(14) D Gauci 53
Those in bold are currently outside of the top 24 in the order of entry. As things work out, Red Ruler might still get a run (provided he’s not balloted) without needing to win and if many drop out so might Mourayan. Jessicabeel and Once Were Wild are positioned inside the Top 24 currently. Purple, who has either been hitting the biggest of flat spots in her races or is gone at the game, is not entered for the Melbourne Cup.
Linton wins and books a MC start imo. Bigger track, stays forever, form with Precedence. Yes, the obvious. Moudre has an interesting draw in 1. Will still go back, but might be able to save some ground?
Mackinnon Stakes (Group 1, 2000m)
1Shocking
(11) M Rodd 59
2Metal Bender
(1) H Bowman 59
3C’est La Guerre
(7) D Dunn 59
4 Ginga Dude (10) M Walker 59
5 Rainbow Styling (3) L Nolen 59
6So You Think
(8) S Arnold 58
7Descarado
(5) N Rawiller 58
8Shoot Out
(2) C Brown 58
9 Kidnapped (4) K McEvoy 58
10 Trusting (12) J Cassidy 58
11 Red Colossus (6) C Symons 58
12Faint Perfume
(9) J Winks 56
Those in bold are intended MC runners. We might get an indication from this race with what they intend to do with SYT on Tuesday, provided he runs. SYT is 1.71 on Betfair currently, and that could get to 1.8 at some point.
I see one article is suggesting the track could be heavy for both Saturday and Tuesday after a "deluge."
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/super … 5944416217
Shocking and Monaco Consul both handle soft/heavy ground. Well, at least they have both won on tracks described as heavy, so I’ve got that covered.
It would be a shame if the ultimate knock-out race now proves not to be that with
Maluckyday
winning the race. Might run, might not run in the MC. We will soon know.
Working with the Precedence penalty theory the horse should get a 4kg penalty.
50kg (+ what Carpenter decides – now 1kg) in the Melbourne Cup. The race could be back to being a handicap again.
There’s little point going into detail with So You Think, but another Group 1 and that was even easier than any of the others. The way he bounced back from last week – incredible, because he did feel for the effort of his initial burst according to the clock and visually. For all of about 5 minutes it seems.
Staying is in relation to the class of a race. There comes a point where "staying" doesn’t matter. And the distance between him and the other Cup runners was just getting bigger on the line.
If anything even tries to run harder for longer Septimus style it could just set up even easier for So You Think.
Horses Out So Far
Dariana
Jessicabeel
Metal Bender (bled)2010 EMIRATES MELBOURNE CUP BARRIER DRAW
1 Shocking (24) 57
2 Campanologist (19) 56
3 So You Think (3) 56
4 Zipping (16) 55.5
5 Illustrious Blue (9) 55
6 Mr Medici (5) 55
7 Shoot Out (17) 55
8 Americain (12) 54.5
9 Tokai Trick (4) 54.5
10 Buccellati (21) 54
11 Descarado (1) 54
12 Harris Tweed (13) 54
13 Manighar (20) 54
14 Master O’Reilly (18) 54
15 Monaco Consul (14) 54
16 Profound Beauty (22) 54
17 Zavite (7) 54
18 Bauer (2) 53.5
19 Holberg (10) 53.5
20 Precedence (15) 53.5
21 Red Ruler (8) 53.5
22 Linton (23) 52
23 Once Were Wild (11) 51.5
24 Maluckyday (6) 51What do you think to Holberg’s chance, jose? You also said earlier that Mr Medici likes heavy groung..does that bring him into the picture? At the moment I’m thinking of backing Holberg, Americain, Monaco Consul [good draw,and jockey], and Manighar.
The trainer of Mr Medici has been quoted as saying the horse wants "better ground" somewhere. For me, though, it’s more what will inconvenience other horses with one like him. Heavy ground definitely stops a few others. He won the 1m 4f G1 in HK in a time of 2 min 38.49! They run the Vase each year around 10 seconds quicker without going flat out. He’ll go through it…
Holberg hasn’t got any real form on a soft or slower surface. I’m surprised Dettori wanted to ride him that much – at Goodwood he looked a real grinding type to me. I’m not ruling out the European horses as much on soft/heavy ground, similar to the Caulfield Cup, but if it’s wet it will be a huge ask to win first time on that type of ground imo. It has been reported he’s had a hoof problem with the stewards wishing to look at that describing him as "doubtful" still. I definitely wouldn’t change any bets on anything I type regarding this race!
If Holberg runs, they should go forward on him. Something has to lead. Of the Australian horses Once Were Wild is one that probably will try to lead. Red Ruler doesn’t have much hope, and he’s another candidate.
Apart from So You Think, who there’s a good chance might just be unstoppable, Monaco Consul is right up there. No horse wants to get to the 3200m more than he does. He tracked into the Caulfield Cup well enough and Flemington is bound to suit more.
Does anyone have the radio link that someone put up last year? [Found it; Radio Sport 927..no sleep for me Monday night, then!]. So, Bauer has to be vetted as well, and Dermot Weld isn’t happy that Profound Beauty had to be vetted on Thursday.
I’ll just add that Betfair should live streaming the race on their video service if you’ve got money in an account.
http://www.australianracing.com/
And that site was a last resort for me on Oaks day at Flemington last year when ATR had a blank screen showing nothing from the simulcast provider.
On a totally unrelated note, Fanjura’s running in the Listed 1800m race after the MC.
Seeing the price of Holberg on Betfair at 95 to win and 26 to place, I put 2 and 3 pounds on, respectively.
They had seemed extraordinary prices, so I made a brief check to see if I’d missed something. Unfortunately, soon after, my check seemed to have been altogether too brief, as his chances of getting a run were said to be very slim to none.
Well, of course, I was overjoyed to read that he got in, due to withdrawals, and I’ve just read our chief handicapper, Phil Smith, would have given him half a kilo more than Manighar, whereas he will be receiving half a kilo. He rates him the best handicapped horse in the field. Also, Frankie is said to have even been on jockeys’ "jockeys’ rations", since the Spring, to be sure of making the weight.
Both of the quite big races he won, he won easily. In the Queens Vase, he beat the O’Brien-trained Yankee Dooodle (cost 1,000,000 gns), easily by 4 lengths, while the third, Mastery went on to win the Italian Derby by 1 1/2 lengths, in his next race. I believe 6 is quite a good draw, so, together with the rest, at least the auguries seem propitious.
But, should Holberg win, and you didn’t do it, don’t envy me, as I’ve had a long run of bad luck, things beginning to look up only recently.
Thought he was drawn 10, which is even better. I’m thinking of topping up my bets with Harris Tweed as well, also with a good draw.
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