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Is there any interest in the Melbourne Cup or am I just posting my own thoughts.
Right now? Probably not. You can’t blame the TRF audience for choosing the Irish Champion, Prix du Moulin, St Leger, Arc and pre-season NH talk over the Melbourne Cup.
Of course you are pointing out the obvious, the interest may grow as the race gets nearer.
I can’t help myself, I study furiously to find the winning chances early so as to get great odds for my doubles bets.
Last year I had "All the Good" to win the CC – MC double for 180k and this year I have loaded up on Schiaparelli. While the numbers sound big the outlay is modest when the multiplied odds are 806/1, but getting the double is quite a challenge. Only five times have I been able get both legs to win a handy profit and twice through misfortune I have missed the huge payload. Schiaparelli is the right type to get the double, is racing extremely well and still has scope for improvement IMO. The MC is his best chance and I have three of the favorites in the Cox Plate into Schiaparelli.
The betting in the UK suggests he will not run in the Arc, the betting suggests he is Melbourne bound.
Time will tell.
Okay, I’ll work on the Melbourne Cup over the weekend, but get ready to start laying – I’m the worst tipster on this Forum.
King Of Rome hasn’t run since the Dubai Carnival.
He has bits of form on Good to Firm going, often running on, or running on again at the end.
King Of Rome is running in the September Stakes 2400m at Kempton (Polytrack) on Saturday against Kirklees, the Breeders’ Cup Marathon winner Muhannak, and some beast called Curtain Call.
He doesn’t have any big race entries in Britain or Ireland. (To be honest, all that means is that he doesn’t have an entry in the Irish St Leger or the Champion Stakes.)
It seems reasonable to assume that the Melbourne Cup is the plan.
He’ll get into the race.
Erm, he might have a bit of problem on the dam’s side.
King Of Rome £12.65 @ 367.1
King of Rome is @ 70/1 with the TAB Australia for the Caulfield Cup.
80/1 for the Melbourne Cup.
Excellent research Gerald, he has 54kgs so will get a run for sure.
I can find nothing he is entered for anywhere (France, Germany or the USA) so either they have no set plan, he has had an injury concern or Melbourne is the only plan
Only negative is someone is prepared to lose big on him at 100/1 for both races on betfair. No money has come for him in the Caulfield Cup and only $69 in the Melbourne Cup.
Will speck him in the doubles just in case your hunch is correct.
cheers
Snoop, you shouldn’t have said that last bit – I feel guilty now. I wasn’t kidding when I said I’m the worst tipster here. I made a profit in Dec, Jan, Feb and April, but that was down to 1 horse, 1 horse, 1horse and 2 horses.
Schiaparelli is drifting like he is in the biblical Ark, in the modern Arc.
Surely he is bound for Australia…………surely!
Snoop, you shouldn’t have said that last bit – I feel guilty now. I wasn’t kidding when I said I’m the worst tipster here. I made a profit in Dec, Jan, Feb and April, but that was down to 1 horse, 1 horse, 1horse and 2 horses.
You only tipped me one horse so this fits in well with your average. Realistically your research makes perfect sense. King of Rome will not have the sort of prep that I would like but at those odds he is more than worth a few dollars just in case. It’s all good!
May as well give me a few more tips so the average is attainable
I was planning to do some Kiwi and Oz horses.
There’s a couple of crumbs of comfort about KOR (can’t remember whether that was Napoleon, or Napoleon’s son). On his last start:
"King Of Rome was eased when his path on the rail was blocked by his tiring stablemate Russian Sage. He deserves rating a bit better than the bare form."
On his penultimate start when beaten a length into 3rd he was reported by de Kock as not being at peak fitness, despite having run the week before. (I knew this last night, but didn’t bother to put it in the ‘prospectus’.)
As a rough guide Snoop, where do you think the cut off point will be to make the race?
The race has changed these days, international runners have come and now our best horses are running because of the Aussie trainers pride.
Light weight chances were all the rage 15 years ago, now it takes a great horse at the top of their game to win. I could not be confident a horse with less than 52 kgs will get a run. This year is different, less entries, early injuries and false entries (horses that were never intended to run ie Maldivian) pave the way for a light weight chance. However the top weight is only 58 kgs so this evens out the chances. The answer is a 51 kgs horse could be in the mix come November, but he/she will have to be at the top of their game.
It now is a punters race, good horse, good form = good result. The lack of 2 mile races in Australia is a concern.
While the winning record of European stayers is not great, the placings all the way back to eight show how it is only a matter of time before a string of Northern Hemisphere winners occurs.This year the Cup will go abroad IMO.
Simon Crisford has confirmed that Kirklees is running in the Caulfield Cup en route to the Melbourne Cup.
I had a couple of quid on him at 95 a couple of days ago, but I don’t want to put any more on as I don’t want the race to take over my life (and my betting budget).
edit: KOR started faltering towards the end. In addition to a several length beating, he was also receiving 5 lbs from Kirklees, so he’s got a bit of catching up to do (IF he is in fact going to Oz).
Further edit:
Crisford:
We’re not too pleased with his (Kirklees’) weight in the Melbourne Cup but the Caulfield Cup is worth targeting anyway and we’ll see how he goes there. "Another one: Just found out that Curtain Call was put down. Was one time second favourite for the Derby.
Quite a significant race, as Muhannak pulled himself up and refused to go out into the country.
Don’t give up on KOR yet – he wasn’t wearing his usual tt , which indicates that this was just a warm up race. Time, or Tuesday in fact, will tell, as that is the first forfeit stage.
Well, on the Schiaparelli front, he’s got entries in the 2m2f Doncaster Cup next Friday. and the 1m6f Irish St Leger next Saturday. Not often considered as Arc trials.
Don’t know about any French entries he may have. (Prix Gladiateur?)
Kirklees is going into quarantine on Tuesday, so looks like Schiaparelli MIGHT travel later.
Last year it was 3 weeks’ quarantine here, plus 3 weeks’ quarantine there.
Friday 11th September plus 42 days = 53 = 23rd October.The Caulfield Cup is on the 17th, so the rules must have changed again, as Kirklees wouldn’t be out of Q until 20th Oct.
I thought it was a given that Schiaparelli was Cadran bound? I’m 99% sure they mentioned running in ‘the big one on Arc weekend’ after he won a Group 2 in France a fortnight ago.
Was adventurous for once, and visited France Galop. Hadn’t realised before that I could enter the Professionel bit.
Schiaparelli has entries in the Foy, Cadran and Arc.
Yes, Cadran makes sense to me as well.
There’s a feature on bin Suroor in the Post tomorrow.
Does this makes Age Of Reason Godolphin’s main hope for the Melbourne Cup?
I need to stop going off at half-cock, and translate all those kgs into lbs, and then align to the British ratings scale, to clarify them. (I put a couple of quid on AOR a couple of days ago at 120, and he’s since gone out to 150
, so I’ve put a couple more on. 
)KEY
Weight in kg
[b:f6q1l318]Conversion to lbs
Lifetime best RPR[/color:f6q1l318]
Age & sex[/b:f6q1l318]
Horse
[b:f6q1l318]12 + RPR – lbs[/color:f6q1l318]
Notes[/color:f6q1l318][/b:f6q1l318]58 [b:f6q1l318] 128 123 [/color:f6q1l318] 6g [/b:f6q1l318] Efficient [b:f6q1l318] 7 [/color:f6q1l318] 2007 winner [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
58 [b:f6q1l318] 128 122 [/color:f6q1l318] 7g [/b:f6q1l318] Maldivian [b:f6q1l318] 6 [/color:f6q1l318] Out??? [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
57 [b:f6q1l318] 126 120 [/color:f6q1l318] 6h [/b:f6q1l318] Eastern Anthem [b:f6q1l318] 6 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
57 [b:f6q1l318] 126 119 [/color:f6q1l318] 7h [/b:f6q1l318] Schiaparelli [b:f6q1l318] 5 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
57 [b:f6q1l318] 126 116 [/color:f6q1l318] 6h [/b:f6q1l318] Viewed [b:f6q1l318] 2 [/color:f6q1l318] 2008 winner [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
56 [b:f6q1l318] 123.5 119 [/color:f6q1l318] 6h [/b:f6q1l318] Kirklees [b:f6q1l318] 7.5 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
55.5 [b:f6q1l318] 122 119 [/color:f6q1l318] 5g [/b:f6q1l318] C’est La Guerre [b:f6q1l318] 9 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
55.5 [b:f6q1l318] 122 119 [/color:f6q1l318] 5h [/b:f6q1l318] Cima De Triomphe [b:f6q1l318] 9 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
55.5 [b:f6q1l318] 122 113 [/color:f6q1l318] 5h [/b:f6q1l318] Court Vision [b:f6q1l318] 3 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
55.5 [b:f6q1l318] 122 120 [/color:f6q1l318] 6g [/b:f6q1l318] Fiumicino [b:f6q1l318] 10 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
55.5 [b:f6q1l318] 122 118 [/color:f6q1l318] 5h [/b:f6q1l318] Nom Du Jeu [b:f6q1l318] 8 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
55 [b:f6q1l318] 121 116 [/color:f6q1l318] 5h [/b:f6q1l318] Doctor Fremantle [b:f6q1l318] 7 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
55 [b:f6q1l318] 121 122 [/color:f6q1l318] 6h [/b:f6q1l318] Macarthur [b:f6q1l318] 13 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
55 [b:f6q1l318] 121 117 [/color:f6q1l318] 7g [/b:f6q1l318] Master O’Reilly [b:f6q1l318] 8 [/color:f6q1l318] Came good 3rd on seasonal debut [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
55 [b:f6q1l318] 121 115 [/color:f6q1l318] 7g [/b:f6q1l318] Vision And Power [b:f6q1l318] 6 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
55 [b:f6q1l318] 121 114 [/color:f6q1l318] 5h [/b:f6q1l318] Voila Ici [b:f6q1l318] 5 [/color:f6q1l318] Gladiateur et Cadran?? edit: No, not entered, despite quote.[/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
54.5 [b:f6q1l318] 120 117 [/color:f6q1l318] 6h [/b:f6q1l318] Mourilyan [b:f6q1l318] 9 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
54.5 [b:f6q1l318] 120 115 [/color:f6q1l318] 4h [/b:f6q1l318] Rebel Raider [b:f6q1l318] 7 [/color:f6q1l318] Out [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
54.5 [b:f6q1l318] 120 111 [/color:f6q1l318] 6m [/b:f6q1l318] Tuesday Joy [b:f6q1l318] 3 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
54 [b:f6q1l318] 119 113 [/color:f6q1l318] 5g [/b:f6q1l318] Age of Reason [b:f6q1l318] 6 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
54 [b:f6q1l318] 119 114 [/color:f6q1l318] 5h [/b:f6q1l318] King Of Rome [b:f6q1l318] 7 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
54 [b:f6q1l318] 119 114 [/color:f6q1l318] 4g [/b:f6q1l318] Metal Bender [b:f6q1l318] 7 [/color:f6q1l318] Out??? [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
54 [b:f6q1l318] 119 113 [/color:f6q1l318] 4h [/b:f6q1l318] Roman Emperor [b:f6q1l318] 6 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
54 [b:f6q1l318] 119 115 [/color:f6q1l318] 5h [/b:f6q1l318] Scintillo [b:f6q1l318] 8 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
54 [b:f6q1l318] 119 119 [/color:f6q1l318] 4g [/b:f6q1l318] Whobegotyou [b:f6q1l318] 12 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
54 [b:f6q1l318] 119 120 [/color:f6q1l318] 8g [/b:f6q1l318] Zipping [b:f6q1l318] 13 [/color:f6q1l318] Hampered last year [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
53.5 [b:f6q1l318] 118 110 [/color:f6q1l318] 5g [/b:f6q1l318] Askar Tau [b:f6q1l318] 4 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
53.5 [b:f6q1l318] 118 106 [/color:f6q1l318] 9g [/b:f6q1l318] Ista Kareem [b:f6q1l318] 0 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
53.5 [b:f6q1l318] 118 112 [/color:f6q1l318] 6m [/b:f6q1l318] Profound Beauty [b:f6q1l318] 6 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
53.5 [b:f6q1l318] 118 112 [/color:f6q1l318] 5g [/b:f6q1l318] Red Ruler [b:f6q1l318] 6 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
53 [b:f6q1l318] 117 113 [/color:f6q1l318] 6m [/b:f6q1l318] Black Mamba [b:f6q1l318] 8 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
53 [b:f6q1l318] 117 116 [/color:f6q1l318] 7g [/b:f6q1l318] Crime Scene [b:f6q1l318] 11 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
53 [b:f6q1l318] 117 116 [/color:f6q1l318] 8g [/b:f6q1l318] Munsef [b:f6q1l318] 11 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
53 [b:f6q1l318] 117 115 [/color:f6q1l318] 8g [/b:f6q1l318] Orion Star [b:f6q1l318] 10 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
53 [b:f6q1l318] 117 107 [/color:f6q1l318] 7h [/b:f6q1l318] Pointilliste [b:f6q1l318] 2 [/color:f6q1l318] Not in betfair market? [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
53 [b:f6q1l318] 117 117 [/color:f6q1l318] 5g [/b:f6q1l318] Triple Honour [b:f6q1l318] 12 [/color:f6q1l318] Not in betfair market? [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
53 [b:f6q1l318] 117 116 [/color:f6q1l318] 5m [/b:f6q1l318] Unsung Heroine [b:f6q1l318] 11 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
53 [b:f6q1l318] 117 113 [/color:f6q1l318] 7g [/b:f6q1l318] Zavite [b:f6q1l318] 8 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
52.5 [b:f6q1l318] 116 113 [/color:f6q1l318] 4h [/b:f6q1l318] Harris Tweed [b:f6q1l318] 9 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
52.5 [b:f6q1l318] 116 – [/color:f6q1l318] 5m [/b:f6q1l318] Jolie’s Shinju [b:f6q1l318] #VALUE! [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
52.5 [b:f6q1l318] 116 113 [/color:f6q1l318] 5g [/b:f6q1l318] Kibbutz [b:f6q1l318] 9 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
52.5 [b:f6q1l318] 116 112 [/color:f6q1l318] 6g [/b:f6q1l318] Light Vision [b:f6q1l318] 8 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
52.5 [b:f6q1l318] 116 112 [/color:f6q1l318] 7g [/b:f6q1l318] Newport [b:f6q1l318] 8 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
52.5 [b:f6q1l318] 116 114 [/color:f6q1l318] 5g [/b:f6q1l318] Warringah [b:f6q1l318] 10 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
52.5 [b:f6q1l318] 116 111 [/color:f6q1l318] 5m [/b:f6q1l318] Zarita [b:f6q1l318] 7 [/color:f6q1l318] Not in betfair market? [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
52 [b:f6q1l318] 115 118 [/color:f6q1l318] 5h [/b:f6q1l318] Alessandro Volta [b:f6q1l318] 15 [/color:f6q1l318] Out??? [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
52 [b:f6q1l318] 115 108 [/color:f6q1l318] 6h [/b:f6q1l318] Empires Choice [b:f6q1l318] 5 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
52 [b:f6q1l318] 115 113 [/color:f6q1l318] 6h [/b:f6q1l318] Friston Forest [b:f6q1l318] 10 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
52 [b:f6q1l318] 115 113 [/color:f6q1l318] 7g [/b:f6q1l318] Gallions Reach [b:f6q1l318] 10 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
52 [b:f6q1l318] 115 109 [/color:f6q1l318] 6g [/b:f6q1l318] Guyno [b:f6q1l318] 6 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]
52 [b:f6q1l318] 115 117 [/color:f6q1l318] 9g [/b:f6q1l318] Spin Around [b:f6q1l318] 14 [/color:f6q1l318] [/b:f6q1l318]It doesn’t look like Kirklees has been treated harshly. [For the record the RP Analysis reckons he doesn’t have a chance of staying 2 miles. His granddam won the Haydock Sprint Cup, but that must show some stamina, as it was back in the days before the track had proper drainage.
]There seems to be a 1.5kg sex allowance, which is bizarre for a h’cap.
I haven’t taken into account WFA yet. I’ll delay that until the first forfeit stage during the week. Also, quite a few horses have run this weekend, and the RPR printed doesn’t yet take account of any improved performances.
I thought it was a given that Schiaparelli was Cadran bound? I’m 99% sure they mentioned running in ‘the big one on Arc weekend’ after he won a Group 2 in France a fortnight ago.
I knew he was entered but thought his current form warranted a trip to the Melbourne Cup where the $3.3 million Aussie was on offer for the winner.
The Cadran is worth about 143k Euro’s (240k Aussie) to the winner I think.
Maybe they want to test his stamina for the Ascot Gold Cup next year?
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