Grand National 2009

How I see the race:

2009 JOHN SMITH’S GRAND NATIONAL 4m4f AINTREE FORM GUIDE

My percentage chance, price to beat, Horse, what I’d offer, trainer (trained in Ireland?), weight, age, rating running off, write up, jockey, best bookies price Friday evening, (Betfair price Friday evening). Prices in bold are value and those underlined are prices worth taking.

2.25% 40/1 Cloudy Lane (28/1)D McCain jnr 11 stones 10 lbs 9yo 158

Joint favourite last year (below form 6th) off a 17lb lower mark than on Saturday. Fell last time out though generally a good jumper. Seemed career best effort when winning Peter Marsh Chase penultimate start but form not yet working out. Needs to improve again. Possibly better on softer going. J Maguire. 50/1

(69/1).

1% 100/1 Chelsea Harbour (50/1)T Mullins (Irish) 11-8 9yo 156

Only 9th off a 10lb lower mark in last years National, weakened late on and appeared not to stay. Often makes mistakes, as last time. 4th in Leinster National, looks poorly handicapped judging on running with Southern Vic (3rd). Beaten 6 lengths yet 8lbs worse off with him. E Mullins. 80/1

(159/1).

4% 25/1 Snowy Morning (20/1) W P Mullins (Irish) 11-8 9yo 156

Good round of jumping (can hit one) when 3rd last year off 11lb lower mark than now. 4 lbs better off with Comply Or Die for 5½ lengths beating. Not in same form this term, found little for pressure last time. 2nd and beaten 17 lengths by Black Apalachi (3m1f on soft), now only 2lbs better off. Two best runs, in last years race and Guiness Gold Cup on good going (not had it this season). A McNamara. 28/1

(47/1).

0.75% 132/1 Knowhere (80/1) N A Twiston-Davies 11-7 11yo 155

Still in with a chance when unseating rider in 08 (on same mark Saturday), also unseated in 07. Not sure to stay 4m4f. Well beaten in Gold Cup making mistakes, first run for some time which suggests a problem. Only 1lb higher than when winning Old Roan Chase in October. P Brennan 66/1 (89/1).

7% 14/1 Comply Or Die (12/1) D E Pipe 11-6 10yo 154

Won last years race with something to spare off a 15lb lower mark. 7th and best race since, encouraging prep over inadequate trip (3m½f) in William Hill Handicap last time. Up with the pace until outpaced coming down hill. Not given a hard race once his chance had gone. Best blinkered and ridden prominently. Has a fair chance of being first to win back to back Nationals since Red Rum. Possibly unsuited by a firm surface. T Murphy. 20/1

(22/1)

.

0.5% 200/1 Ollie Magern (80/1) N A Twiston Davies 11-6 11yo 154

Best when fresh (not so on Saturday). 8Th, 1½ lengths behind Comply Or Die last time (same terms). Gives impression will stay. Often sulks if unable to lead. Mr S Waley-Cohen. 125/1 (159/1).

0.125% 800/1 Stan (200/1) V Williams 11-6 10yo 154

Winner only up to 2m5f, seems unlikely stayer. Pulled up at latest start. A Coleman. 125/1 (219/1).

4.5% 22/1 Black Apalachi (18/1) D T Hughes (Irish) 11-5 10yo 153

Easy “distance” winner of Beecher Chase. Hardly saw another horse, jumping his rivals ragged and clear most of the way. Form not worked out well and now on 15lb higher mark. Won Bobbyjo chase (see Snowy Morning) last time. Remains to be seen whether he can run / jump as well if taken on in front. Fell in last years race. Improvement this year on a soft surface. D O’Regan. 16/1 (18/1).

4.25% 22/1 Hear The Echo (18/1) M F Morris (Irish) 11-5 8yo 153

12 length winner of 08 Irish National on soft ground. Ante-post favourite before weights came out. Not well handicapped on chase form but improved over hurdles this term and may be capable of better over larger obstacles. Unseated on first chase start of the season last time. D Russel. 20/1

(27/1)

.

0.25% 400/1 Preists Leap (100/1) T G O’Leary (Irish) 11-5 9yo 153

Won Thyestes Chase in January on very soft going, for second year running; Beat Chelsea Harbour 4 lengths but is now 5lbs worse off. Disappointed on first start since. Softer the better. Only 7th in last years Irish National, 47 lengths behind Hear The Echo. P Enright. 100/1 (209/1).

13.25% 13/2 My Will (11/2) P F Nicholls 11-4 9yo 152

Worthy favourite; officially 8lbs “well in” on Saturday (would carry 8lbs more if handicapper could reassess his weight). 5th in Hennessey off 2lbs higher mark than Saturday. Looked likely to do even better there until lack of fitness told run-in. Several good placed efforts under big weights in handicaps in 06/07. 3rd for second successive year in Betfred Gold Cup (old Whitbread) off a mark of 161 (9lb more). 5th in Gold Cup last time, staying on. Has run well before at Aintree after running at Cheltenham, 2nd in Betfair Bowl. Proven up to 3m5f, sire and dam’s sire influences for stamina. Has form on a firm and soft surface. R Walsh. 9/1

(9.5/1)

0.2% 500/1 Eurotrek (150/1)P F Nicholls 11-3 13yo 151

Winner of Beecher Chase over National fences back in 06 off a 4lb lower mark than Saturday. Not raced since 07 National, 16/1, pulled up after being hampered. Good record fresh but now a veteran and may be on the downgrade. Went well on good ground. S Thomas. 100/1(199/1).

6.5% 15/1 State Of Play (13/1) E Williams 11-2 9yo 150

Excellent record fresh and has been given a long break. Won Charlie Hall on reappearance, beat Ollie Magern a length, now 6lbs worse off but that rival has since regressed. Won 06 Hennessey off 145. Stays 3m2f well. Dam Kaprice not noted for producing stayers. Goes very well on a sound surface. Jumps well enough but is only small. P Moloney. 14/1 (15/1).

5.5% 18/1 Big Fella Thanks (15/1) P F Nicholls 11-1 7yo 149

Only a novice but already won Skybet Chase (soft going) and run well in Racing Post Chase (good) off this mark. In latter staying on 3rd and doing best of those held up. Officially “well in” by 1lb.Yet to race further than 3 miles but sire was a stayer (won Henry II) and grand dam is sister to an Eider Chase (4m) winner. Capable of improvement provided jumping is up to the task; made a few minor errors in only 6 chase starts to date, unseating once. C Williams.

25/1 (25/1)

.

0.5% 200/1 Mon Mome (80/1) V Williams 11-0 9yo 148

10th last year off a mark of 141(now 7lbs worse). Not been in the same form since being jumped in to in Welsh National when starting favourite; 2nd in that race in 06. Won a good handicap at Cheltenham in December, 8lbs higher mark on Saturday. Tailed off in Midlands National last time. Possibly best on soft. L Treadwell. 100/1 (189/1).

0.3% 300/1 Silver Birch (100/1) G Elliott (Irish) 11-0 12yo 148

Winner of 2007 race off 10lb lower mark, on good ground. First “races” since, won one point in February then pulled up in another before disappointing in a hurdle on 15th March. Now a veteran and probably not capable of the same form. R Power. 66/1 (89/1).

9.375% 10/1 Butler’s Cabin (8/1) J J O’Neil 10-13 9yo 147

Going well when fell second Beechers off this mark in last years race. Too far out to be sure where he would have finished. Being a stayer (07 Irish National and 4m1f NH Chase winner) highly likely to have played a part in the finish. Not run to form for two years but has been trained specifically for this race. Ran well enough in Kim Muir Chase last time off a 12lb lower mark, outpaced latter stages of slowly run 3m1½f race, another 1¼ miles is bound to suit. Best two runs on a sound surface. AP McCoy. 9/1 (9/1).

1.25% 80/1 Offshore Account (50/1) C F Swan (Irish) 10-13 9yo 147

2nd off a much lower hurdle mark in first race since December 07. Looked a good prospect as a novice chaser, winning Grade 1 at Punchestown. Only two runs last season and obviously difficult to train. Half brother to The Listener but also to several who stay further. Acted on any ground (before injury) D Casey. 33/1 (43/1).

4.25% 22/1 Parsons Legacy (18/1) P J Hobbs 10-12 11yo 146

3rd in 4 mile 07 Scottish National. Won first time up this season at Cheltenham (6lbs higher on Saturday). Ran poorly on unsuitably soft going next time. Not run since but good record fresh. Best efforts on a sound surface. Reaching the veteran stage and possibly more exposed than most. R Johnson. 18/1 (18/1).

0.1%1000/1 Reveillez (400/1) J J O’Neil 10-12 10yo 146

Sire sprinter / miler First Trump. Weakened close home at 3m5f when favourite, 2nd in 07 firm ground Betfred. 3 lengths behind Hot Weld and 6 ahead of My Will. Now 5 lbs better off with former and 10lbs worse with latter. Changed stables from J Fanshawe. No form this term and seems on the downgrade. M Walsh. 150/1 (289/1).

0.1% 1000/1 Fundamentalist (500/1) N A Twiston-Davies 10-11 11yo 145

Jumps poorly, unseated at 4th fence last year and struggles to stay 3 miles. Does not seem in great form either. D England. 200/1 (339/1).

0.3% 300/1 Golden Flight (100/1) N Henderson 10-11 10yo 145

First start for almost 2 years and for Nicky Henderson. Well beaten 12th of 17 finishers in William Hill Chase after mistakes. Ex-French horse, winner of grade 2 and placed (beaten a distance) in grade 1. Unseated rider only other British chase start. Stays well and raced mainly on very soft. B Geraghty. 66/1 (109/1).

5% 20/1 L’Ami (16/1) E Bolger (Irish) 10-11 10yo 145

Ended Mick Fitzgerald’s career in this race last year taking an awful fall and well beaten 10th in 07. In good form this term, jumping well in cross-country chases; 2nd at Cheltenham over 3m7f. Probably acts on any going. Races as though will be suited by another 5 furlongs. Worthy outsider if not remembering previous Aintree experience. R Thornton. 25/1

(26/1)

.

0.5% 200/1 Battlecry (80/1) N A Twiston-Davies 10-10 8yo 144

3rd in Sun Alliance to Alberta’s Run and 2nd in Maghull Novice Chase to Big Bucks last season. Not in same form this time around, finishing weakly. Stable now in better form than when last seen in February. Stays 3 miles but gives the impression not an out and out stayer. T Scudamore. 50/1 (43/1).

1.5% 66/1 Cornish Set (40/1) P F Nicholls 10-10 10yo 144

First start after a breathing operation, 12th of 15 finishers last year off 4lb lower mark. Ran poorly last time (February). Runs well fresh, won Badger Beer at Wincanton off 137 on reappearance. Then 2nd in Welsh National off this mark in December; as usual staying on from off the pace. Seems of better temperament these days but probably exposed. N Schofield. 33/1 (45/1).

0.05% 2000/1 Fleet Street (500/1) N Henderson 10-10 10yo 144

Made all to win 3 mile handicap on fast ground at Kempton (now 9 lbs higher). Sulked when running poorly in Racing Post Chase. Possibly needs to lead and barely stays 3m. A Tinkler. 150/1 (309/1).

0.75% 132/1 Musica Bella (80/1) F Cottin (French trained mare) 10-10 9yo 144

Twice 2nd (similar form) to one of France’s best chasers Remember Rose including in 3m3½f grade 1 Prix Jousselin. Probably below form last two starts. Raced mainly on heavy going. P Carberry. 150/1 (210/1).

1% 100/1 Can’t Buy Time (50/1) J J O’Neil 10-9 7yo 143

Novice, appeared not to stay 4 miles in NH Chase last time out at Cheltenham. Had a hard race there and not much time to recover. Put up 13lbs for winning Sandown handicap very easily. N Fehily. 66/1 (79/1).

3% 33/1 Darkness (25/1) C R Egerton 10-9 10yo 143

Possibly fortunate winner of veterans chase last time at Newbury; Irish Raptor unseated on the flat. Though is officially 8lbs well in on Saturday. Sometimes seems to sulk when surrounded by horses. Can make mistakes. Pulled up in 06 Scottish National but races lazily and has a fair chance of staying 4½m. Goes well on a sound surface. W Hutchinson. 20/1 (19/1).

2% 50/1 Irish Invader (33/1) W P Mullins (Irish) 10-9 8yo 143

Won last three starts, looks well handicapped on form of two small field condition races. Unlikely to stay 4½ miles. Winner of 3m chase but improved since at 2¾m and shorter. Sire Bob Back not a great influence for stamina over jumps. Dam 1½m winner who produced one full brother to Irish Invader that got 2m on flat, but most do not stay as well. P Townend. 25/1 (28/1).

10.5% 17/2 Rambling Minster (15/2) K G Reveley 10-9 11yo 143

Better than ever on last two starts despite advancing years. Not all out to win Blue Square chase, 3½ miles on heavy, by 3½ lengths from previously impressive winner Coe; giving him 8lbs. Took wide course and possibly raced on the best ground there. However, still looks well handicapped, 6lbs well in on official ratings. Also won competitive Cheltenham handicap. Inexperienced jockey now unable to claim the 3lbs he had on those two occasions, though already been victorious over National fences (Endless Power in Grand Sefton). Rambling Minster won Borders National over 4 miles and Agfa Diamond chase in 07, latter on good going. Jumps well and big chance. J Reveley.

11/1 (11/1)

.

2.75% 33/1 Southern Vic (25/1) T M Walsh (Irish) 10-9 10yo 143

First time blinkered and jumped well in lead when 3rd in Leinster National (3m) latest start. Well handicapped with Chelsea Harbour (see above), but beaten 8 lengths fair and square by Emma Jane and Florida Express, albeit gave 17 and 15lbs. Below form behind Black Appalachi and Snowy Morning in muddling Bobbyjo Chase. Beaten before unseating at Canal Turn in Beecher Chase, off same mark Saturday. Pedigree suggests trip should suit; same sire as Comply Or Die and dam’s family stay well. Raced mainly on soft ground. Remains to be seen how he will fare if unable to lead / second start in blinkers. N Madden. 28/1

(35/1)

.

3% 33/1 Kilbeggan Blade (25/1) T R George 10-7 10yo 141

Winner of London National for second successive year only chase start this season (now 4lbs higher). Beaten at odds-on in novice hurdle last time out. Stays well. Very best form on soft ground but that may be because it brings his stamina in to play. Trainer having an excellent season. G Lee. 22/1 (25/1).

0.75% 132/1 Brooklyn Brownie (66/1) J M Jefferson 10-6 10yo 140

Took well to National fences in Grand Sefton Chase in November, now 6lbs higher. Easily won 4 runner handicap last time off 135. Travels well at up to 3 miles. Sire Presenting not an especially strong stamina influence and dam’s family not generally a staying one. P Kinsella. 33/1 (41/1).

1% 100/1 Himalayan Trail (50/1) J J Mangan (Irish) 10-6 10yo 140

Looked promising stayer for Sue Smith last year, Won Midlands National (4m1f). Now with National (Monty’s Pass) winning trainer. Jumped well in Beecher Chase in November (remote 5th). Only 1lb lower now, 15 lbs better off with winner Black Apalachi. Since run poorly tried in cheek pieces and tongue tie suggesting a physical problem. P Flood. 33/1 (37/1).

0.1% 1000/1 Arteea (400/1) D E Pipe 10-5 10yo 139

Well below form in Kim Muir after a years absence, first start since leaving M Hourigan. Another who seems established as a 2½ miler. Possibly best on a soft surface. J Farrelly. 300/1 (859/1).

0.05% 2000/1 Cerium (500/1) P Murphy 8yo 10-5 139

Formerly fair sort for Paul Nicholls at up to 3m. Reportedly has had a heart problem. Outclassed in Gold Cup Unlikely to stay. K Mercer. 500/1 (859/1).

0.5% 200/1 Idle Talk (80/1)D McCain jnr 10-5 10yo 139

14th of 15 finishers in last years race off this mark. Below form 4th in Beecher Chase (November) no better since. Best runs last two seasons on reappearances. Acts on good and soft going. Seems on the downgrade, lacks his old enthusiasm these days. B Harding. 66/1 (79/1).

0.1% 1000/1 Kelami (400/1) L Williamson 10-5 11yo 139

Jumped poorly in three Grand Nationals. Ran well off this mark, close 2nd in Racing Post Chase last year on good going for F Doumen. Ran no sort of race over hurdles for current trainer. Now a veteran and on downgrade. D Laverty. 250/1 (549/1).

1.25% 80/1 Zabenz (50/1) P J Hobbs 10-5 12yo 139

Veteran staying chaser. Unraced under rules since 07 Betfred, every chance before bad mistake at last fence; stays 3m5f. Won two point to points easily at Larkhill and Badbury this year. Never fallen or unseated for Philip Hobbs, equipment failure when pulled up in Grand National. Had been in good form prior to those runs. Acts well on a sound surface. Consistent, if still capable of the same form. 125/1

(319/1)

.

Have backed:

Cloudy Lane, Snowy Morning, Comply Or Die, My Will, Big Fella Thanks, L’Ami, Rambling Minster and Zabenz.

I”m sticking with Big Fella Thanks E/W. He’s 20/1 and may be half the price on the "off."

Good luck gang,

Zip

How badly handicapped is Butler’s Cabin? Couldn’t have it on my mind, the main thing in it’s favour is the jockey, surely if AP wasn’t on it would be double the price.

Geez that’s weird when I started writing mine you guys hadn’t posted.

There’s an omen for you Incidentally K the trip is the least of his worries. He might not win but C Swan would prefer it softer and reckons he will stay forever.

My Mrs drew Irish Invader in a Sweep. I would have backed it myself if it had run more recently than 37 days ago. I’m on

L’Ami

instead.
BTW-Boylesports are paying six places in this.

Difficult race, as usual, I’ve had a little ew on Hear The Echo and Idle Talk.