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THE 2009 JOHN SMITHS GRAND NATIONAL LINE UP (after elimination stage)
1/ 16-0431F CLOUDY LANE 9-11-07 Trevor Hemmings Donald McCain Jnr
2/ 61U1F234 CHELSEA HARBOUR (IRE) 9-11-05 Frances Duffin Tom Mullins IRE
3/ 332-56F2 SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 9-11-05 Quayside Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
4/ 16UP-100 KNOWHERE (IRE) 11-11-04 Raymond Mould Nigel Twiston-Davies
5/ P211-P00 COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-11-03 David Johnson David Pipe
6/ 40-255550 OLLIE MAGERN 11-11-03 Roger Nicholls Nigel Twiston-Davies
7/ STAN (NZ) 10-10-12 Venetia williams
8/ 20F2-P151 BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 10-11-02 Gerard Burke Dessie Hughes IRE
9/ 01-556U HEAR THE ECHO (IRE) 8-11-02 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE
10/ 140-0F10 PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 9-11-02 John D O’Donohue Tom O’Leary IRE
11/ 32023/-55 MY WILL (FR) 9-11-01 The Stewart Family Paul Nicholls
12/ 411P/1P/- EUROTREK (IRE) 13-11-00 Paul Green Paul Nicholls
13/ 2560-14 STATE OF PLAY 9-10-13 Mr & Mrs William Rucker Evan Williams
14/ 2-322U13 BIG FELLA THANKS 7-10-12 Paul Barber & Maggie Findlay Paul Nicholls
15/ 00-210200 MON MOME (FR) 9-10-11 Vida Bingham Venetia Williams
16/ F/02421/-0 SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 12-10-11 Brian Walsh (Co. Kildare) Gordon Elliott IRE
17/ 03F-0005 BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) 9-10-10 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill
18/ 1111/U2-2 OFFSHORE ACCOUNT (IRE) 9-10-10 Brian Polly Charlie Swan IRE
19/ 23/54-1P PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 11-10-09 R A S Offer Philip Hobbs
20/ F0612/-P0 REVEILLEZ 10-10-09 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill
21/ 00146P6P FUNDAMENTALIST (IRE) 11-10-08 Colin Cornes Nigel Twiston-Davies
22/ 1/P133/3-0 GOLDEN FLIGHT (FR) 10-10-08 John & Barbara Cotton Nicky Henderson
23/ 03F0-4212 L’AMI (FR) 10-10-08 J P McManus Enda Bolger IRE
24/ 332-245P BATTLECRY 8-10-07 Trevor Hemmings Nigel Twiston-Davies
25/ P00-F120 CORNISH SETT (IRE) 10-10-07 Peter Hart Paul Nicholls
26/ 042-P610 FLEET STREET 10-10-07 Henry Ponsonby Nicky Henderson
27/ 1222100 MUSICA BELLA (FR) 9-10-07 Jean-Paul Senechal Francois Cottin FR
28/ 63-111314 CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 7-10-06 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill
29/ 113P//-3P1 DARKNESS 10-10-06 Lady Lloyd-Webber Charles Egerton
30/ F323111 IRISH INVADER (IRE) 8-10-06 Sackcloth & Ashes Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
31/ 46-56511 RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-06 The Lingdale Optimists Keith Reveley
32/ 5F/-06U343 SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-06 Brenda Graham Ted Walsh IRE
33/ 20P-1112 KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-10-04 K Doocey & Mrs A Doocey Tom George
34/ 4124021 BROOKLYN BROWNIE (IRE) 10-10-03 P Gaffney & Neil Stevenson Malcolm Jefferson
35/ 1-P504P0 HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-10-03 Mark Gittins Jimmy Mangan IRE
36/ 3/00010-0 ARTEEA (IRE) 10-10-02 Judith Wilson David Pipe
37/ 0P/50PP-0 CERIUM (FR) 8-10-02 Judith Wilson Paul Murphy
38/ 050-2403 IDLE TALK (IRE) 10-10-02 Trevor Hemmings Donald McCain Jnr
39/ 0F2U6-P0 KELAMI (FR) 11-10-02 Halewood International Ltd Lisa Williamson
40/ 0/232P5/- ZABENZ (NZ) 12-10-02 Sarah Hobbs Philip Hobbsreserves –
reserve 1 –
2U41U-02 MALJIMAR (IRE) 9-10-01 Jane Williams Nick Williamsreserve 2 –
211-1113 COMPANERO (IRE) 9-10-00 W M G Black & Sue Johnson Howard Johnsonreserve 3-
0333P0P IRON MAN (FR) 8-10-00 Roddy Owen & Paul Fullagar Peter Bowenreserve 4-
P2P-P0PP MATTOCK RANGER (IRE) 9-10-00 Banouche Stud Ireland Ltd Noel Meade IREI think theres a lot of ifs and buts about nearly all the major players this year.
My Will- Has to be major doubts about him staying,jumping also suspect imo…..was also flattered in the Gold Cup imo as i believe if you ran the GC again without the first 4 then no way My will would win.
Butlers Cabin- Been talked up a good few times as a national winner but i think hes maybe not good enough,would be a decent ew punt but all the money that will pour in for AP to win means he wont have much appeal imo.
Black Apalachi- Won the becher in a bog but fell early last year when taken off his feet on better ground,wouldnt be too confident unless it was soft or worse tbh.
Hear the Echo-Far too underpriced imo,will stay but i think will run the sort of race Chelsea harbour ran last year.
Big Fella Thanks- Have major doubts about this one tbh,jumping suspect imo and also dont think hell stay.I also think its a year too early for him.
Comply or Die- The horse id love to see win but hasnt looked interested most of the season,obviously didnt want too much weight for this but ran so badly that i dont think fitness etc were to blame.Better last time though.Also the stats dont favour him.
That makes me think that Rambling Minster could be the one this year with a clear round,could be this years Comply Or Die,or we could be in for a big upset and a big priced horse could do it.
Is that all a fair assessment or am i just talking shoite
I’ve got a feeling that Cloudy Lane could run a much bigger race than anyone expects; he is completely the forgotten horse and can’t possibly win with that weight, but I may be tempted to have a small ew on him at a huge price.
I am hoping that Rambling Minster can plod his way into a place – hopefully first !
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I don’t understand why Brooklyn Brownie is still such a huge pprice; I’ve backed him twice at 40/1, each time expecting his price to drop. However, even though I’d do better financially if BB or Darkness won, I’ll still be shouting for Rambling Minster.
Finding it hard to fancy anything at the moment…. doesnt look to be a paticulary strong renewal with a lot of the top rated runners dropping like flies.
Parsons legacy, with a clear round should be there abouts on ground that suits for a change….. Nice weight also.
Not sure if Patsy Hall will get in but would be dangerous if managing to IMO
I don’t understand why Brooklyn Brownie is still such a huge pprice; I’ve backed him twice at 40/1, each time expecting his price to drop. However, even though I’d do better financially if BB or Darkness won, I’ll still be shouting for Rambling Minster.
Just playing devil’s advocate because I have backed the horse. These three things might have something to do with it:-
(1) How many big races have Jefferson/Kinsella won?
(2) Will he stay?
(3) Has he got quite enough class?Having said that he will not go off at 40/1 – I took 33/1 just to get the 5th place.
I guess that it is rather disappointing that the this year’s Topham will be headed by a higher rated horse than we shall see in the National, but the National is no less interesting because of that – how can it be?
Anyway, just as an aside from the other GN threads I thought I would vent my spleen with some rather strange happenings with regards to the betting this year.
The first of these concerns both State Of Play and Ollie Magern. Now on Betfair the latter is trading (at the time of writing) at odds eleven times greater than those of the former. Now I don’t quite understand this for a number of reasons, and not because of anything sinister I must add.
In the Charlie Hall this season SoP beat OM by one length with SoP receiving 10lbs from the runner up and now he is only in receipt of 4lbs, so on that score OM has the beating of SoP. The ground for Saturday is likely to be what both of these horses would want as their best form has generally come on good/quickish ground and OM is one of the handful of NTD’s horses to have run well during their continued lean spell.
Couple this with the fact that OM’s sire has previously sired two winners over four miles and both of them were trained by……NTD.
Therefore why is OM’s price so much more than SoP? Surely if you are keen on the latter then it must follow that you are keen on the former, and if not why not???
The other "anomoly" or indeed "anomolies" relates to My Will and Zabenz.
Of course the form that ties them in is the 2007 Betfred Gold Cup in which My Will was giving Zabenz 21lbs. They now meet with My Will on 9lb better terms but that’s just about right on their Sandown form because if Zabenz had not made such a calamitous mistake at the last then the chances are he would have finished close to Hot Weld who finished nine lengths in front of My Will. Now one is trading at 8.6 and the other at 450! Most NZ bred horses like to hear the rattle of their hooves so the ground is more in Zabenz’s favour than My Will’s, who let us not forget was starting to weaken in the Sandown race when the former’s mistake left him in third. He’s been in cracking form in P2P’s this season (not quite Gold Cup class I know) but both horses wellbeing cannot be called into question. So why is one 45 x the price of the other???
Weird!
Ollie Magern is a bit of a dog these days. He seems to run well in the Charlie Hall (seasonal debut) and then his form tails off after that. Maybe the change in scenery vis-a-vis the Aintree fences will jolt him up a bit on the day but I couldn’t back him.
Has Parsons Legacy been put up on a tipping line? With no course form and age 11 he looks ridiculously short. He should like the drying ground but is no better than a 25/1 shot.
Yes he has been put up on a tipping line. At 18’s or so i would put him about right. A lot better than My Will at 6’s.
Brooklyn Brownie is bred to stay; he’ll like the better ground; he’s a good jumper; he’s the right age; he’s the right weight; he’s won a Class 2 chase..Iagree that he probably won’t win but I’d rather back him at 40/1 than Butlers Cabin…..[famous last words]….and my form studying is so good that I am actually going to have another ew on Cloudy Lane…..I make up the rules as I go along! I think that with Parsons Legacy most people assumed that he wouldn’t run [like last year] and were only prepared to back him nrnb. Annoyed that I missed the 40/1.
At the moment i`m leaning towards Knowhere seems to quite like the place tho` failed to finish in the last two nationals.
Ollie Magern has to my mind been staying on a bit at the end of his races and could run a lot of these into the ground if allowed to bowl along.
Zabenz was running well two years ago til leather broke alright i know it was only five fences but ran well in `whitbread` or whatever its called these days later on, only hope he doesn`t make a mistake like he did then tho`.
If there is rain which i doubt i could see Eurotrek becoming the first thirteen year old to get a place since General Symons .
And if he gets in would love to see Iron Man make up for the unluckiest loser in recent times (Ballycassidy).
Bear in mind i haven`t had a placed horse since Over the Deel in 95 but hope springs eternal eh ?
Well it’s good to see someone else mention old Ollie Magern on here. Would not surprise me in the least to see him run well and as I said on my "Anomolies" thread how on Earth is he trading at such a ridiculous price compared to State of Play when their form is so entwined, if you like?
I’ve had my £2 to win and TBP on Betfair mainly out of sentimentality but with say 15% based on something else and that is – his full sister, Petite Margot, who let us not forget finished runner up to Rambling Minster in the Borders National. Now rather like Royal Athlete and Tipsy Mouse, and A Piece Of Cake and Royal Emperor – if one sibling stays four miles then it generally follows (not always I know) that the other sibling will too.
Also remember that his damsire, Monksfield, was the damsire of Monty’s Pass and indeed Battlecry’s mummy, Midlands National heroine Miss Orchestra. Monksfield was himself sired by Gala Performance, sire of West Tip and dual runner up Greasepaint.
I’m not saying he will win but what I am saying is that if I were making a book he wouldnt be trading at the prices he currently is and therefore there seems to be quite a lot of value to be had for very little outlay.
I suppose it may be interesting to some but I don’t really think pedigrees should play a significant part in analysing races where so much form is already in the book.
And how many of the 40 have run over 4m 4f? What of those that haven’t like Irish Invader say. Do you think he will stay. What about State Of Play. Do you think he will stay 4m 4f and what do you base your theory on? It is a unique distance and one where the pedigree can tell you a lot more than supposed notions or ideas where the only thing you can base whether or not they will stay is how they ran over a 1.5 miles shorter than they encounter now. More so than any other NH race the GN is where pedigree can be very informative if you take the trouble to study it and for many it is another very useful string to one’s bow – not the be all and end all but very useful.
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