- This topic has 673 replies, 87 voices, and was last updated 15 years ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Was reading Mouse Morris on teletext last night and he was saying that he his realy confident about war of attrition and reckons that he reckons war of attrition is well in at the weights, which is what I was thinking myself. Even if he ends up carrying quite a big weight he looks to me to be the type who is much better than his rating, and he is very exciting in the national IMO.
Mouse is very keen on him. Tom Taaffe was saying at one of the preview nights that Mouse was trying to convince Michael O’Leary not to run him at Cheltenham because he thought he could be well in here. He goes exceptionally well fresh and is as good a jumper of a fence as I’ve seen in recent years. If ever you’d think a horse would get around the National course it would be him. On genuinely good ground I think he’s a cracking bet. He’s definitely the best handicapped of the Irish horses.
The best handicapped on evident form IC. Trouble is any Irish horse showing their true form is probably in fact the worst handicapped in the race!
I still couldn’t back a horse with 11-8 or 9 in a National, whatever Gingertipster says. Thay may place as often as they should but they struggle to win.
none of the websites i use mentions all the withdrawals, only the ones most noted, ive been on betting odds list and those no longer with prices are all these
GARDE CHAMPETRE
ENDLESS POWER
LOTHIAN FALCON
GALLANT APPROACH
MONKERHOSTIN
BALLYFITZ
GWANAKO
L’ANTARTIQUE
SIMON
SEA DIVA
D’ARGENT
EXOTIC DANCER
BALLYTRIM
OULART
ONE COOL COOKIE
IMPERIAL COMMANDER
ABBEYBRANEY
EMMA JANE
ROYAL ROSA
NOTRE PERE
MIKO DE BEAUCHENE
TRABOLGAN
SILVERBURN
MADISON DU BERLAIS
OEDIPE
PIRAYA
HOOPY
CANE BRAKE
AIR FORCE ONE
HOMER WELLS
OPERA MUNDIDon’t think Snoopy Loopy is running; still not sure about Roll Along; is still in the betting but opinion seems to be that he’s not running;assume something has been said in the press.
yes i heard snoopy loopy would not be running in press release but then they didnt withdraw at this forfeit stage
and they where doubtful over roll alongDont know who told me this (was a long time ago) but a horse who is more at home over two and a half miles often gets these marathon trips better than the three milers.
Not something I would swear by at any means but employed that theory to Drumconvis at cheltenham this year and worked a treat.
That used to be the old way of thinking but really doesn’t hold much water this day and age. You need a horse that will definitely get home and they must have form over 3m plus, usually winning form.
I think the whole 2 1/2miler theory is based almost solely on Gay Trip (1970) – unless you count Red Marauder (who I believe had previously won over no further then 2 1/2miles), but 2001 was a freak year
All depends on the ground on the day.
If it is on very soft bordering heavy then you will need an old staying type just like Earth Summit was.
A faster surface will be ideal for 3m horses as they go a little bit quicker around Aintree.
I agree with Katie about the 2m4f theory not being true but you may get the odd horse placed after being put to sleep a the back while the rest are cutting each others throats on the first circuit.
I think the whole 2 1/2miler theory is based almost solely on Gay Trip (1970) – unless you count Red Marauder (who I believe had previously won over no further then 2 1/2miles), but 2001 was a freak year
oh i don`t know what about Classified and The tsarevich not winners i admit but two and a half milers who ran well i`m sure there is others if i can get my old brain into gear.
Sounds as if Nozic may not run as well as Snoopy Loopy, in which case weights will go up even more; however, probably guarantees Character Building, Brooklyn Brownie and Kilbeggan Blade a run so swings and roundabouts. Lot of money seems to be going on Southern Vic at the moment.
Lot of money seems to be going on Southern Vic at the moment.
Apparently Ruby’s going to ride him rather than any of the Mullins’ or Nicholls’ contenders. May explain the market confidence.
I think the whole 2 1/2miler theory is based almost solely on Gay Trip (1970) – unless you count Red Marauder (who I believe had previously won over no further then 2 1/2miles), but 2001 was a freak year
oh i don`t know what about Classified and The tsarevich not winners i admit but two and a half milers who ran well i`m sure there is others if i can get my old brain into gear.
Classified was definitely a 2 1/2 miler which is why he conked out at the crucial stage and he didn’t win. Gay Trip was by Vulgan who by then had already sired two Grand National winners so to say Gay Trip was 2 1/2 miler was, at the time, and still is failing to tell the full story. A also hark back to A Piece Of Cake, a favourite horse of mine who was almost exclusively campaigned over 2m 4f, successfully so, but his pedigree screamed stamina (Roselier gelding out of a Boreen mare) so when he ran over 4m in the Borders National I lumped on. The fact he won so much over shorter proved what a good horse he was but he was always going to be a stayer.
Remember what I keep telling you about Strong Gale – War of Attrition, Southern Vic, Hear The Echo, Darkness et al will struggle to even get placed!!!
I think the whole 2 1/2miler theory is based almost solely on Gay Trip (1970) – unless you count Red Marauder (who I believe had previously won over no further then 2 1/2miles), but 2001 was a freak year
oh i don`t know what about Classified and The tsarevich not winners i admit but two and a half milers who ran well i`m sure there is others if i can get my old brain into gear.
Classified was definitely a 2 1/2 miler which is why he conked out at the crucial stage and he didn’t win. Gay Trip was by Vulgan who by then had already sired two Grand National winners so to say Gay Trip was 2 1/2 miler was, at the time, and still is failing to tell the full story. A also hark back to A Piece Of Cake, a favourite horse of mine who was almost exclusively campaigned over 2m 4f, successfully so, but his pedigree screamed stamina (Roselier gelding out of a Boreen mare) so when he ran over 4m in the Borders National I lumped on. The fact he won so much over shorter proved what a good horse he was but he was always going to be a stayer.
Only just missed out of a place in the real national a few years ago i seem to remember.
Friend at work pointed out to me that Strong Gales tended to need soft ground as well….quite happy with my main bets on Character Building, Rambling Minster, Brooklyn Brownie, Kilbeggan Blade and my accidental bet on State of Play. Parsons Legacy I may look at if he runs; Himalayan Trail is bothering me, and whatever Eddie the Shoe chooses I shall double up on!..and I’ve still only spent @ £10..how much fun can you have for that these days.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.