Grand National 2009

few weeks ago a dreamt BA won the national, maybe should of backed him antepost

i still like simon though i always follow himw, hope he comes back to form and his jockey stays on this time round

vf

Simon is one I’ve backed myself, but I am getting a bit worried he usually needs a couple of races to get fit. Has not run for some time and surprised he has not run since the weights came out. Though he is in the William Hill at Cheltenham. The Alners only have Micko De Beauchene in the field who will be going for the Gold Cup. Although MDB is top priced 40/1 with bookmakers he’s almost double that on the exchanges which probably indicates Miko being an unlikely runner at this stage.

I wonder just what the Bobbyjo form is worth?
Black Aplachi won well but what did he beat? Snowy Morning has been nowhere near the form he was last term. One Cool Cookie had run below form last time and Southern Vic has been inconsistent at best since his novice year. BA also got a soft lead out in front and is unlikely to get that at Aintree this time. Though the Beecher will stand him in good stead, that race is often won by a front runner. I don’t think he is that well handicapped either. 14/1 is much too short for me at this stage.

Mark

Another error made by BFT during the Racing Post Chase. He can get away with it at Kempton because the fences there are like paper now but he is an accident waiting to happen at Aintree. He will not jump 30 fences without making a serious error no matter who is on board and Ladbrokes were quite correct, in my opinion, to push him out. They were, however, incorrect to have shortened him up in the first place.

It makes me smile but some people on here laughed me out of town for the mere mention of a 7 year old winning the race because the "trends" backed up their negative comments but a year on they seem to have changed their tune (no names mentioned of course!) so I put the argument that they levelled towards me back at them. How many 7 year olds have run in the last ten years and how many have actually completed and what is their best finish??? I know of course but I’m waiting for you!

Kendal,
if you are discussing 7yo horses in the Grand national and their relative performances in the race then there is no case to answer, as they
just dont achieve a thing, who was the last 7yo to actually complete the course oh wise one?

Crikey; only 4 horses in the last @ 10 years 7 or less have completed albeit way down the field [all French bred I think]…..I did think that a few might have been placed.

We are all well aware of the history of the GN and to back a novice could be considered heresy,but I am very happy with my 50`s,33,s and 25`s about BFT . I thought he ran a fair trial Saturday and am looking forward to the real thing. All of his trainers and jocks consider him a good jumper. Inexperienced yes ,but it is interesting that Hills will not go more than 14`s. It may be the magic sign knows something I don`t but I will be in shortly to test them again at the 25`s.

So what are your opinions of Maori Venture’s jumping Kendal and Stan?

Yes, BFT does usually hit one a bit hard and it would not surprise me if he fell. But it is usually just one or two mistakes at most. I thought he jumped well in the main on Saturday. If he usually only makes one or two erors, then surely there is a distinct possibility that one day he won’t make an error. Snowy Morning has made significant errors on practically every run, bar when 3rd in last seasons Grand National.

It is not as if we are saying BFT will win the race, just that he is value to win. Allowing for possible jumping frailties. To write him off seems foolish to me.

I suppose neither of you were on Master Minded in last years Queen Mum because no 5yo had won the race, and the year before, not many six year olds had won either (Voy Por). Surely it is best to judge each horse on it’s own merrits, not on what their age group has done.

Mark

I’ve just retrieved this from the long term thoughts thread:

"I was astonished to find how few chases some National winners had run in their lifetime up to Dec 7th in their GN winning season:- Lord Gyllene 6 (in Britain), Miinnehoma 7, Numbersixvalverde 8, Red Marauder 9, Silver Birch and Hedgehunter 10, Bindaree 11, Comply or Die 12, and Bobbyjo and Royal Athlete 14."

Could this be interpreted as saying that Novices have a chance, so long as they are good enough?

I am taking it to mean that horses still have to be a certain age (9+) in order to have the stamina to win.

A lot of the horses with few chase runs had injury plagued careers. Would the increase in schooling they received, for 2, 3 or 4 years, compared to novices, make much difference to their jumping ability?