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May be does not jump well is a bit strong, as he jumps reasonably well for a novice. But this is far from a novice race. It is his temperament that I believe is the main issue with him.
Could be a handicap good thing come the day though Roddy.
Good luck
Mark
Value Is EverythingBig fella thanks coming in for plenty market support today, may well be showing the right signs at home. Think he has the ability and looks the right sort if his jumping can improve but Nicholls can do that, if the horse plays ball, (this time last year who wouldnt have laughed at the idea of gwanako winning the topham).
BFT and Butlers Cabin (still have faith in him after last years slip going well) are the two Im currently looking at.
This year’s first stab in the dark is 2 quid on Offshore Account at 140. Lightly raced of late, and Champagne Charlie apparently has a run in a handicap hurdle planned.
I like Simon’s mark too, and if I thought he’d get in I’d back Lothian Falcon but he looks too far down.
Big fella thanks coming in for plenty market support today, may well be showing the right signs at home.
He was put up by Pricewise at 25s this morning, Bulwark.
Well that explains that one then…
Still, think he could emerge as a likely sort for the race, but will hold off for now.Dave Nevison on RUK went for BFT as well. Some may well have backed it just because it is Pricewise. They know by backing a National horse put up by Segal at somewhere near the advertised price means they will be able to trade out at a later date. Certain profit.
If it does win, I doubt whether it will be good for the race itself. With more inexperienced novice chasers taking part in future years as a result.
Mark
Value Is EverythingI know backing a novice could be considered heresy but Big Fella Thanks at 50/1 is very tempting.
My 50`s and secondary 25`s looking good fellas? Sweet.
marble
There’s no denying that his dam’s side is very well represented from a stamina perspective. He will no doubt stay further.
In there, five generations back, is dear old Vulgan. As many on here know he sired three GN winners including Foinavon. He was also in Royal Athlete, West Tip, Corbiere and Numbersixvalverde, Nil Despernadum, Addington Boy and many others.
Also much more to the fore is The Parson, damsire of that grand but ill fated stayer Young Kenny and he is also the damsire of Parsons Legacy. The Parson was also the sire of the likes of 1991 Scottish National winner Killone Abbey and some very smart types like Danoli and Monsieur Le Cure.
And then there is his damsire Derrylin who produced Youre Agoodun and old favourite and prolific P2P winner County Derry who won the 4m 1f Hunter Chase at Cheltenham.
His sire is the same as another big National hopeful from a few years ago namely Moor Lane who missed the cut. Primitive Rising did produce a Scottish National 4th (and winner of the Foxhunters) Last Option but by and large he does not tend to produce marathon staying chasers. BFT is by far and a way the best he has produced and I believe BFT was from his last or penultimate crop. Primitive Rising died in 2002.
Ken, I have a nice bumper horse called Royal Scoundrel. Do you think he is bred to win the GN in due course? Bit of West Tip and Royal Athlete.
Ken,could you check out my mare Glacial Missile ( Spartan there somewhere) Sorry if this a bit cheeky but I can see you know what your doing.May even enjoy it.
Could do with some advice on mating plans. I `ve got 6 kids on the books and a few in Indo China
Roddy
First of all who purchases your horses for you?
Well, Glacial Missile has a lovely pedigree. Is she the 1993 mare? If it is then she is most definitely related to Spartan Missile indeed her grand dam Trident Missile would be his half sister. Couple that with the fact that Vulgan is in there then I’m salivating Mr Owen! Get her booked in with Kayf Tara right this moment.
As for Royal Scoundrel I think you are teasing me! You know perfectly well that he has one of the most stamina laden dam’s one could wish for. I haven’t seen anything quite as exciting as that pedigree in a long time. King’s Ride, Deep Run, Vulgan, Darjoy especially the latter two. He is indeed related to Royal Athlete and West Tip through the 1947 broodmare Jess Figaro but more closely related to Royal Athlete. I just hope he can jump! Four miles+ written all over him.
You lucky *******!
Was it Glacial Missile that got disqualified from a Ludlow bumper in extremely dubious circumstances? Especially dubious given the wife had done it at 33-1. But that may have been another Glacial.
Right these are the 4 horses that really caught my fancy at the publication of this years National weights and bearing in mind the fact the weights wil likely rise 5- 9lb, all will be well under the 11st mark come race day.
Kilbeggan Blade
– is the right age and likely to be ideally weighted, he has been trained specifically for the race all season with his one chase win designed to bring him to around this mark to get a run. His hurdle win giving 6lb to Mon Mome reads particulary well looking at their respective weights and he stays very well. Down sides are whether he has enough class to win a race like this having never threatened at this level, though he has 2 class 2 wins to his name. Also the fact most of his form is from October to January.
Southern Vic
– was a former high class novice chaser and is another seemignly trained for this race by a very shrewd trainer. Unlike many of the Irish, he’s not been too harshly treated and his last run over a very inadequate trip was very encouraging. The big issue with him is he’s not won for a long time and was not running that well when he came down here in the autumn.
Cornish Sett
– Seems to be as good as ever this year after a breathing operation and put up two good efforts in last tow races. Gets in on his Welsh National mark where he was 2nd so could be seen to be very leniently done. Has to prove he truly stays well beyond 3m and there is the Nicholls hoodoo to overcome, but for me he appeals most of that trainers runners having more ticks in the correct boxes than others.
Garde Champetre
– could try to emulate the Silver Birch journey of the cross country race before the big one. In my view bizarrely dropped 2lb for his last win, though admittedly ratings for those kind of races are not always comparible to normal chases. He was however a very well thought of horse as a youngster and while French breds don’t have the best record, he could well run into a place if allowed to take his chance.
Given some give in the ground, would it be a foolish decision if Notre Pere’s connections do not run Notre Pere in the Grand National?
Stays, jumps very well, unexposed. If he waits for another year his handicap mark might not be good enough come 2010?
I suppose if he beats Neptunes on Sunday he will have a bigger target. But even if he runs well at Cheltenham, Aintree is surely the race for him.
Also, with so called soft ground specialists, it is sometimes just a mattter of wanting a test of stamina. With good going-soft they might get outpaced, but it does not mean they do not go on the surface.
Backed it at 37/1 and 45/1 thinking there could be a change of mind after sunday. If he were a certain runner he’d be 16/1. Do not normally back uncertain runners but at the price is (imo) worth a bet at the price. May lay it back after sunday’s run.
Have also backed Simon 33/1 and Comply Or Die 20/1. But have laid the latter back now, as he scoped poorly over the last couple of days.
Mark
Value Is Everything
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