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With 11s 10lbs on his back and Tony McCoy likely to be riding JP’s Butler’s Cabin Exotic Dancer has a huge task.
He is an easy horse to turn off which can be worth a good 7lbs at Aintree Even at that most people would agree it is probably beyond him
If it is a lost cause does anyone think Jonjo should risk giving Richie McLernon(7) nephew of Tommy Carmody a chance or Alan Berry (5) who many say is the best amatuer in the country?
Doesn’t David Johnson just love a good moan?
It’s been along time sice a horse won 2 years on the trot and Complie or Die has only 3lbs more to carry this time, although he has gone up a lot in the weightsI doubt if he has been off a yard this season and David Pipe I suspect is happier than DJ
. He still has a good racing weight, obviously loves the place and must have a fair chance of being there abouts again.Complie or Die, Butler Cabin, Notre Pere and Cloudy Lane make most appeal to me at the moment
I think that the one who is really chucked in, but needs to get fit, is Trabolgan.
I’d have thought the plan would be to run in the William Hill Trophy at Cheltenham.
Henderson has got 2 months to do the magic.
I find it ironic that the bookies are talking up Butlers Cabin being chucked in on Irish National form, when the OH has given him a 12lb raise from the current rating.
I also find it hilarious that because of bad form, the OH has dropped Tony Martin’s Dun Doire to 130, and now it stands no chance of getting into the race.
I think that was Jonjo’s sense of humour coming across more than fighting talk
Oh, I only read it on the website, instead of seeing it on telly.
Gerald
I’m hoping its Madison Du Berlais!
I thought Snoopy Loopy was an almost definite runner, because he’s going after the Order of Merit? On the other hand, there are other OdM races at Aintree for him to run in.
There are doubts about all the ones above Cloudy Lane, so yes, he is the highest-weighted definite runner. However, I would be surprised and financially gutted if he ended up top weight.
why has Hot Weld got such a low weight after his achievements of 2 years ago? does the weight go down significantly if they don’t run for a year?
Glad to see Brooklyn Brownie will almost certainly get a run. If it’s good ground he’ll be staying on at the end. Unless of course he has already fallen!
Garde at 10st looks nice….and Hot Weld at 9-13…..
Im with you on Garde. Cracking weight!
What’s the highest-rated horse which will almost definitely run – Cloudy Lane?
Cloudy Lane would probably be favourite to go off top weight if such a book existed (although he’d also be a possibility in the Bowl if it cuts up), though I personally think Snoopy Loopy will make the line-up. Also, bear in mind that if Exotic Dancer makes the first 2 in the Gold Cup (or any race he should contest at Cheltenham) he’s on for a £1M bonus in the National.
why has Hot Weld got such a low weight after his achievements of 2 years ago? does the weight go down significantly if they don’t run for a year?
Moe,
If the RP is to be believed and Exotic Dancer is off 166 in the National, that makes Hot Weld 141, 6 lb higher than when he won the BetFred. There’s quite possibly been some sort of concession there, but I can’t imagine it’s massive (FWIW, I think those currently on 9-13 could be right on the cut line come April 4th). Along the same lines, Silver Birch hasn’t been seen on a (rules) racecourse since the 2007 National, yet has been given a mark 10 lb higher than on that day.
marble
There’s no denying that his dam’s side is very well represented from a stamina perspective. He will no doubt stay further.
In there, five generations back, is dear old Vulgan. As many on here know he sired three GN winners including Foinavon. He was also in Royal Athlete, West Tip, Corbiere and Numbersixvalverde, Nil Despernadum, Addington Boy and many others.
Also much more to the fore is The Parson, damsire of that grand but ill fated stayer Young Kenny and he is also the damsire of Parsons Legacy. The Parson was also the sire of the likes of 1991 Scottish National winner Killone Abbey and some very smart types like Danoli and Monsieur Le Cure.
And then there is his damsire Derrylin who produced Youre Agoodun and old favourite and prolific P2P winner County Derry who won the 4m 1f Hunter Chase at Cheltenham.
His sire is the same as another big National hopeful from a few years ago namely Moor Lane who missed the cut. Primitive Rising did produce a Scottish National 4th (and winner of the Foxhunters) Last Option but by and large he does not tend to produce marathon staying chasers. BFT is by far and a way the best he has produced and I believe BFT was from his last or penultimate crop. Primitive Rising died in 2002.
The connections I feel most sorry for are those of Preists Leap. I think they arguably have the most to be unhappy about. Raised 18lbs for his Gowran success is a joke. He was beaten 47l by Hear The Echo giving that horse 4lbs at Fairyhouse last year and now finds himself running off exactly the same mark as HTE. I think Mouse Morris should shut up and count himself fortunate.
I’m not sure about Exotic Dancer in the Grand National, personally.
Jonjo said that he can jump a fence, yes, he can, when he wants to. But at times he has put in some very dodgy jumps, noticeably at Aintree in the Betfair Bowl.
He wouldnt get away with that for 2 circuits over all the National fences.
I forgot – L’Ami has a good weight. Should do okay so long as doesn’t have a geriatric jocked up.
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