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Aaah Grasshopper,
Imagine if the force that could carry 11-12 with a rating of 182 should appear in the line up! Snowy would be carrying 10-6 and would have to make up the 10 length he was beaten at levels in the Sun Alliance ch! That would be interesting!Not so make believe now Grasshopper!
"Phil Smith has offered a carrot by reducing the top weight in the National from 11st 12lb to 11st 10lb, and who’s to say he won’t offer us another inducement when he frames the handicap.
Denman just gone 9.6 on the machine, 3.1 to be placed, so if "The force"
carries top weight of 11-10lb, over Aintree"s unique fences, i reckon
"Snowy i can actually jump them morning" will now get 10-00lb, and yet
the pair carried levels in the 07 Sun alliance with 10l seperating them!
Interesting that "Snowy" went off the 9/2 fav when "The force" unleashed
his awesome power in the 07 Hennessey, when falling early on!
It would be one of the all time great performances if Denman could win
the National at those weights, especially giving weight to Exotic dancer
too should he run!GWILSON. I was just excited to see that Denman will run in it. I’ve still a hell of alot to learn about racing. What i do know could currently be written on the back of a match box probably.
What is interesting is that, in the last 18 years, only one winner has weighed in at over 11st. That was Hedgehunter in 2005, at 11st 1Ibs.
Age/weight/odds
2007 Silver Birch 10 10-6 33-1
2006 Numbersixvalverde 10 10-8 11-12005 Hedgehunter 9 11-1 7-1
2004 Amberleigh House 12 10-10 16-1
2003 Monty’s Pass 10 10-7 16-1
2002 Bindaree 8 10-4 20-1
2001 Red Marauder 11 10-12 33-1
2000 Papillon 9 10-12 10-1
1999 Bobbyjo 9 9-10 10-1
1998 Earth Summit 10 10-5 7-1
1997 Lord Gyllene 9 9-10 14-1
1996 Rough Quest 10 10-7 7-1
1995 Royal Athlete 12 10-6 40-1
1994 Miinnehoma 11 10-8 16-1
1993 VOID
1992 Party Politics 8 10-7 14-1
1991 Seagram 11 10-6 12-1
1990 Mr Frisk 11 10-6 16-1I’m sure we discussed the French horses for the National elsewhere. Anyway Musica Bella is a big price for the main event (being targeted at teh Gold Cup and National) and she runs tommorow at Cagnes-Sur-Mer, poor wins/runs ratio but a nice enough mare and very gutsy
GWILSON. I was just excited to see that Denman will run in it. I’ve still a hell of alot to learn about racing. What i do know could currently be written on the back of a match box probably.
Graeme,
some on here would say the same about me!!
Well if you have just got into racing, you have chosen a time where there
is a "Star" in the ranks of top National hunt horses, "Denmans" the name
he is so exceptional that if he ran in the Grand National he would have
90% of the field running from outside the Handicap, which is unheard of in modern times! ie Denman carries 11-10lb top weight, top rating182
the rest rated 157 or less will have to carry 10-00lb thats a big weight
difference! You think he could defy that?With the weight framing it’s more likely to be those rated sub 150 out of the handicap.
I’ve took a proper interest in racing via the Kauto-Denman hype. I’d say i’m still a novice considering many of here seem to know alot from viewing classic races first hand.
As for Denman defying the weight, i wouldn’t know to be honest. He gave almost 2 stone to character building in the Hennesy, and done him by 19 lengths. Hedgehunter was giving weight to alot of horses in 05, and still managed to win by 14 lengths.
Snowy moring got done by 34 lengths by offshorte account after getting beat by Denman.
I guess stats are there to be bent and twisted to suit our personal agendas.
No one knows what’s going to happen in any race least of all the National. I have bet Denman but it’s fine to say most will run out of the handicap but really that doesn’t mean ****.
Theres an old syaing if it is a saying that you will stop a good horse with weight but you make make a bad horse go with he lack of it. But some horses are near immpossible to give weight away to in the National and it wont make an ounce of difference to them if they carried 10lbs more than some handicapper would have given them. 10stone is a featherweight to be carrying by a horse who takes to these fences
If Denman runs and he is challenged and tiring by something getting 24lbs of him we better hope the thing has 3 legs.
Crisp more flamboyant and many would say was a better and faster jumper than Denman and he was caught out by Red Rum who probably wasn’t as good then as he became later.
It’s not going to be a case of turning just up. I still think Charachter Building who is a stronger horse than he was last season will be hard to beat.
Jonjo will be delighted if Butler’s Cabin only has to carry 10 stone and Notre Petre has alwas looked a real dour stayer who be a huge danger if it came up very soft.
I can’t see Denman not staying the national trip. He will do a crisp but without the jelly legs on the run-in.
It’s strange but you don’t have to stay forever to win the national. Denman would hunt round the first circuit in forth gear.
Just a thought and I know Harry Findlay wouldn’t do anything that would harm Denman in any way but, if he did run him would he have a big punt on the only other horses running from within the handicap that could possibly win? there wouldn’t be many, would there? also, Paul Nicholls is not too good at training a horse for the National, is he …
Jelly Jockey more like. I very seldom critisise jockey but I will never forget Pitman smacking the horse with his whip on the wrong side when he was wandering near the elbow and then bouncing up and down like a sack of potatoes….total panic set in and cost Crisp the race…….It was the start of a great story though.
Ruby will ride Denman in the National and there will be no worries about that………..Wonder if they have told Sam yet.
Just a thought and I know Harry Findlay wouldn’t do anything that would harm Denman in any way but, if he did run him would he have a big punt on the only other horses running from within the handicap that could possibly win? there wouldn’t be many, would there? also, Paul Nicholls is not too good at training a horse for the National, is he …
I think Findlay would go in big on Denman. I really don’t think weights would matter if Denman lines up at Aintree if ever a horse is made for the race its him and he isn’t any ordinary horse. He can’t carry more than 11 stone 10 and nothing can carry less than 10 stone I can’t see any horse getting enough weight off him to make a big enough difference.
As for Nicholls he can train any jump horse so I wouldn’t worry on that score.
On the question of betting him.
What price will he be if he wins first time out?…….7/2 at best I would have thoughtI think he would be lucky if he will be 6/4 to 2/1 if he wonthe Gold Cup and the crazy thing is punters would still bet him.
On the question of betting him.
What price will he be if he wins first time out?…….7/2 at best I would have thoughtI think he would be lucky if he will be 6/4 to 2/1 if he wonthe Gold Cup and the crazy thing is punters would still bet him.
Maybe that’s a good enough reason for you to start laying then if you think he’ll run. Get 10s just now as you said, then lay him at 3s down the line.
I’m sure you said in a separate thread that he will win the GC anyway.
Cant see denman winning even if he does run there are going to be some quality horses on featherweights and over the national trip i dont think it can be done carrying top weight anymore. That run in would make it tell.
i still fancy last years winner comply or die to come back to form and run a good race. They havnt used the blinkers this season and mite be saving them for this. Would love to see war of attrition entered too.
On the question of betting him.
What price will he be if he wins first time out?…….7/2 at best I would have thoughtI think he would be lucky if he will be 6/4 to 2/1 if he wonthe Gold Cup and the crazy thing is punters would still bet him.
Maybe that’s a good enough reason for you to start laying then if you think he’ll run. Get 10s just now as you said, then lay him at 3s down the line.
I’m sure you said in a separate thread that he will win the GC anyway.
Got 12;s and I never lay them, plus I think Kauto Star will win the Gold cup………..you got the wrong man but no worries chances are I could have the wrong horse
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