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I am going to resort to using an abbreviation here, MGE.
MGE’s current Official Rating (from the BHA h’capper) is actually 100. It is down as 96 for the Ayr Gold Cup, as it is an early closing race. If the Official H’capper was allowed to rehandicap the race, MGE would carry 4 lbs more due to his performance in coming a close 2nd in a Listed race.
For that race, MGE received a Racing Post Rating of 112. RPRs are often a few pounds more than the Official Handicapper awards.
For the race, the RPR is adjusted for weight carried and for WFA (in this case what the 3yos are getting from the older horses). This is to make it easier to judge who is well-in. I usually refer to this figure as Postmark, to distinguish it from the RPR. The RPRs are adjusted to the reference point of 10 stones. MGE is carrying 8-12, so 16 lbs is added to his RPR of 112 to arrive at a PM of 128.
I ain’t going into Topspeed.
According to the Racing Post’s handicapping, MGE should win the race by 1.5 lengths from Arganil.
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Personally i think a potential group horse is what is required to win the Ayr Gold Cup and that narrows the field down to Evens and Odds on this ground!
Genki
already has Evens and Odds’ head on the mantlepiece – and a Diadem entry that the latter lacks.
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That’s 2 I can lay could do with another
You can add Everymanforhimself to your list of lay bets, Fist; last minute impulse bet! [along with Arganil, Mac Gille Eoin, Striking Spirit and Magic Cat…Garnaca n/r].
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Signor Peltro
for me, despite the drop in trip.
Hogmaneigh
is not the most reliable sort in the world, but he’s as good as anything in this field on a good day. He makes his debut today for Jim Goldie (in good form), is attractively weighted and has picked up a decent prize such as this for the past two seasons – Vodaphone Dash in ’07 and Portland in ’08. Due a big effort and drawn in stall two.
Quest For Success
is on the upgrade and landed a competitve Scottish Stewards’ Cup last time. Trainer / Jockey can do no wrong at present and he appears to be well drawn. He’ll do for me in the Silver Cup.
That has broken my spirit.
I’m not betting in any more sprints until the start of the new season at Doncaster.
I’m feeling rather down anyway be cause I’ve been wrestling with Firefox 3.5.3 for the past few hours, have given up, and am now using Internet Explorer.
Gutted doesn’t even begin to describe it
Tombi won the race on the nearside – if the high drawn horses had all stayed over here I’m convinced he would have won.
Oh well that’s racing. Hope some of the forumites backed Jimmy Styles
Even my horses with a good draw finished out the back. Only consolation is that I would never have fancied the winner. Lot of jockeys in trouble after the race; must have been a nightmare to ride in.
Can’t move away from the Gold Cup, I’m afraid; I’m in tunnel vision mode….does anyone fance Striking Spirit? Dandy won it with a claimer last year.
Moe if the ground continues to dry and with his 7lb claimer,you would have to expect a big front running performance from Striking spirit,he will beat Jimmy styles anyway
Another priceless quote from TAPK!!
Feel sorry for the Tombi backers in here, surely if drawn over the farside with the top 4 he would have won thiss.
Its not often C4"s Jim Mcgrath talks a lot of B******s,but to say he didn"t think there was a draw bias over the 6f course at Ayr today amazes me!
To say he thought it was just a case of the best handicapped horses were drawn low just shows how we can all make ourselves look stupid! At least those of us that do, have an opinion!What a plank, if the bronze and silver cup were not enough of a clue the previous group 3 painted a picture even stevie wonder could have seen.
To be fair, McGrath did admit his error after that race between the Silver & Gold Cups.
Well, at least we’ve learned not to have bets in this race in the future! I console myself with the fact that my money went to WH’S who sponsor our Grand National Preview evening, so deserve a bit of my money
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Yeah, and the ground dried out so quickly that a 6l draw bias in the Silver Cup had whittled down to 2l an hour later, when they ran the Gold Cup!
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