- This topic has 51 replies, 12 voices, and was last updated 16 years, 9 months ago by
.
- Posts
Don’t forget to have a saver on Haajes in the Bronze Cup.
edit: Delete that. Giving punting advice to other people makes me sick in the stomach. I don’t have the right or the expertise.
Typical headbanging Gerald, going for a horse that has only ever won over 5f. However, he comes from behind, and stays on.
Tombi for me at 100+ on Betfair and 40/1 each-way. Ran Regal Parade to a length off levels before running in a very very hot race (first five or so have all franked the form) at York. Ground looks like it will dry out with no expected rain until Saturday afternoon (showers possible then) and drawn in 27 with the top apprentice Freddie Tylicki I think he’ll go close.
Yes, I noticed Tombi when I looked at the deccies and draw. None of mine seem to have a plum draw. No going back though – the die is cast.
Is there a draw bias, and if there is will we not know till tomorrow’s race? Doesn’t seem to be a race for fancied horses but, apart from that there don’t seem to be any trends to mention [other than the Dandy Nicholls one, and I guess that you don’t get a good price for them]. Having not looked at the race I was hoping that Richard Hannon would have a horse running but, alas doesn’t seem to be the case. I agree with Gerald in that win or lose it’s good to study the race because it makes it so much more interesting to watch. So, into ATR I go for a bit…….This horse, Magic Cat; seemed really promising last year and then went backwards; wondered if he’s had a wind op or something.
I’m always grovelling about at the bottom of the handicap looking for a bit of value! I know my place……
Presumably, in addition to whatever troubles Magic Cat has had, things weren’t helped by Karl Burke’s travails.
My general advice Moe is not to bother with the Ayr Gold Cup, and concentrate on the mile [edit: sorry, 10f
John Smith’s] h’cap at Newbury instead! It is a trial for the Cambs. The other race I’m interested in, but don’t have time to study, is the Arc trial at Newbury tomorrow. What are the intentions for the various runners later this season? We know Halicarnassus is going to Hong Kong, but what about the others? By the way, he has won this race before, and there have been two other recent dual winners of it.The going was Good in 2005, 2003 and 2002, and Gd to Fm in 2001.
First nine positions:-
2005
2, 4, 27, 3, 20, 24, 21, 28, 232003
10, 14, 6, 1, 27, 25, 21, 2, 112002
16, 10, 15, 18, 26, 17, 21, 28, 192001
22, 12, 15, 20, 4, 28, 9, 26, 10Try and make sense of that! Continent was the winner in 2001, so would have won from any draw.
Bronze Cup
I’m splitting my stake, and putting some on Sunrise Safari as well.
Last time out was 4th drawn 8, when the first three home were drawn 18, 17 and 20 out of 20.
This is what the RP said about his Pontefract win:-
The early pace was frenetic, which really helped the winner.
SUNRISE SAFARI had gone a long time without success and you would have wanted very long odds at halfway that he was going to collect here, but as the pace faltered up front, he came witha strong finish down the middle of the course to win nicely.
And this is what was writ about his run on Northumberland Plate day:-
Sunrise Safari hasn´t won since 2007 and is low on confidence according to his trainer, but there is no doubt he´s seriously well handicapped. Things hadn´t gone right for him in three starts since running a good second over this course and distance in April and, although this was better, he again didn´t get the run of things. He was continually messed about in the pack and had to fight for room, but he finished very well to take a closing third. A strongly run race at this trip, ideally on a non-undulating course, is what he wants, and there are races to be won with him when things finally fall right.
It may look from the outside that I have merely picked the Fahey horse, but I happened upon the horse because I was looking for a horse that had performed well at the Northumberland Plate meeting.
I agree with you Gerald. Sunrise Safari for me. Given the condensed weights for the race (top weight and bottom weight are not far apart), then I am happy to choose a horse from the top of the handicap, especially with a very good 3lb claimer. I backed him each way at Donny last week and he only really got going in the last 150yds so a fast gallop would certainly help and there are a few fancied horses near his low draw.
As a saver, based on the potential or otherwise for a draw bias, I will go with Felday. I am pretty sure there is a decent race in this horse ever since I saw his first run of the season at Newbury in what is usally a decent early season handicap. He ran well at Ripon the other day in what was his first start after a break and with hughie Morrison having winners of late he is my saver.
I’ll take one "medal" at a time and look at the Silver and Gold tonight or tomorrow!
Can’t move away from the Gold Cup, I’m afraid; I’m in tunnel vision mode….does anyone fance Striking Spirit? Dandy won it with a claimer last year.
Used to my lunch hour to good effect…studied the Gold and Silver cups.
In the Gold Cup, I scanned the list and eyes were intantly drawn to Hitchens. He has been well fancied for big sprints in the past and been slightly disappointing. However, he has dropped in the weights a few pounds and more importantly, is coming into the race off a reasonable run over 6f at Ripon behind Markab. He was 6th that day but only beaten a few lengths. In his last 3 races he has been betean 10L, 6L and 3L respectively. Small and steady improvement. His trainer knows a thing or two about these races and at around 25-1 he represents a good each way chance. Dangers (or saving bets if you will) are Zidane and Hogmaneigh.
In the Silver cup I will select Kaldoun Kingdom. He has been running consistently all year and his profile looks progressive and I like the fact B HcHugh has been booked by Fahey. He has had good success with Knot In Wood in such races this year and is good value for his 5lb claim. Last time out Kaldoun Kingdom ran on strongly at 6f having had a few races earlier in the year over an obviously short 5f. At around 14-1 he looks decent each way again. Dangers are Prescription and Skhilling Spirit (agonisingly 5th in the Gold cup last year and who goes well fresh).
I think I will be going each way doubles on Hitchens and Kaldoun Kingdom / Hitchens and Skhilling Spirit as well as singles on all mentioned.
Backing all of Fahey’s blind might not be such a bad idea.
Apparently Haajes was the first home on the near side, but was 6 lengths behind the far side. edit: was 2nd in stands’ side group, and 2-3 lengths behind the far side group.[/color:1j7w7nx8]
I’m thinking that such a disparity will lead the Clerk of the Course to do some selective watering tonight, even though it isn’t officially allowed.
edit: Just checked, and Baldemar ran in the same race at the Northumberland Plate meeting as Sunrise Safari, so there was some apparent method present in my apparent randomness of key race selection!
as I was saying, will probably know more about a draw bias after today! think I’ll just watch tomorrow…unless I have a bet on a long priced horse with a good draw eg Garnica……however, favourite looks home and hosed already…..APK counting his money already!
as I was saying, will probably know more about a draw bias after today! think I’ll just watch tomorrow…unless I have a bet on a long priced horse with a good draw eg Garnica……however, favourite looks home and hosed already…..APK counting his money already!
I’m not convinced Garnica has a good draw Moehat – looking at it the most important thing barring any major draw bias is the pace in the race, of which there is only mac Gille Eoin in 12 drawn low who likes to front run. I backed Ingleby Lady today but she was front running with one or two others on the farside whilst there was only one on the nearside in the race and they were beaten a neck or so.
Don’t mention hoses.
Actually, I went in again this evening. Guess what? £3.95 @ 50 Garnica. Not a particularly good price, but I thought that if I waited it would go shorter. Placed bet after listening to Dandy on Timeform Radio. He seemed quite affectionate towards the horse, and mentioned his gelding.
Someone on another forum mentioned the pace, so interesting what Irish Stamp has just said. Same person had tipped Intrepid Jack and said not to worry about the supposed draw bias. Oh dear..perhaps I’ll just back Magic Cat at 100/1. Annoyingly am working tomorrow morning a few yards from the bookies, so know I’ll be tempted to have a bet on something!
Can’t move away from the Gold Cup, I’m afraid; I’m in tunnel vision mode….does anyone fance Striking Spirit? Dandy won it with a claimer last year.
Moe if the ground continues to dry and with his 7lb claimer,you would have to expect a big front running performance from Striking spirit,he will beat Jimmy styles anyway and a repeat of his York run puts him in with an e/w chance at a big price! 32 on Betfair! Personally i think a potential group horse is what is required to win the Ayr Gold Cup and that narrows the field down to Evens and Odds on this ground! If the rain comes i would give Valery Borzov a big chance! Good luck with your selections!
I’m gonnae have a bash at some long rangers bar one of them. I didn’t intend to have a bet on this race because these races are for bookies. Money down the drain.
Redford 10/1
magic cat 139/1
abbondanza 109/1
Madame Trop Vite 159/1
I don’t understand the Racing Post ratings, but you have OR. TS and RPR. Mac Gille Eoin has a OR of 96 and a RPR of 128. Does that mean that he is rated 32 points higher by them than his OR? His trainer has said he’s put blinkers on him to try to keep him straight; I’d noticed yesterday when I watched replays of his races that he tended to wander about a lot at the end of his races, but still seemed to finish quite strongly.
John Smith’s] h’cap at Newbury instead! It is a trial for the Cambs. The other race I’m interested in, but don’t have time to study, is the Arc trial at Newbury tomorrow. What are the intentions for the various runners later this season? We know Halicarnassus is going to Hong Kong, but what about the others? By the way, he has won this race before, and there have been two other recent dual winners of it.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.