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Eminent would definitely be a better horse on good/soft ground but there are a few showers due this week and also the ground at Newmarket will be given 8mm of water on Friday night.
They will be racing on track set aside since last October, I saw it myself at The Craven meeting and it looks green and lush so not too concerned.
If Eminent has improved from his Craven win he will take all the beating
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I’ve backed Churchill for the Derby at 14/1 (Much to the bemusement of my colleagues who think he won’t stay) – can’t have him beaten on Saturday. Won despite everything going wrong in the Dewhurst; his two pacemakers will ensure a proper gallop in the Guineas, and he’ll relish the mile.
Just reading through the last couple of pages of this thread and I saw 15/8 mentioned for Churchill!
Wow!
Found 7/4 when looking on oddschecker but mostly 6/4.
For some reason in my head, I had thought Churchill was 4/6 and 8/13 across the board.
With no Caravaggio in the field, and a renewal I don’t think is actually very good, 7/4 on the favourite could be very backable for me in the next 48 hours unless I see anything that makes me find something elsewhere.
Just reading through the last couple of pages of this thread and I saw 15/8 mentioned for Churchill!
Wow!
Found 7/4 when looking on oddschecker but mostly 6/4.
For some reason in my head, I had thought Churchill was 4/6 and 8/13 across the board.
With no Caravaggio in the field, and a renewal I don’t think is actually very good, 7/4 on the favourite could be very backable for me in the next 48 hours unless I see anything that makes me find something elsewhere.
I disagree quite strongly that it’s a renewal that’s not very good. That’s not to say that Churchill won’t win, but how can you say that this is a weak guineas?
It seems that every classic or big race someone comes along to say this is a poor renewal. it’s a cliche and it’s tiresome.
You have a dark horse of Andre Fabre, an unbeaten Godolphin horse in Barney Roy who won the greenham, and Eminent, a son of the super sire Frankel, who recorded one of the quickest times for years in winning the craven.
Maybe Churchill will win but to suggest that this is a weak renewal to me is bordering on preposterous. I think it’s quite a good guineas actually.
I think its the strongest renewal for years and Rivet is massively over priced hoping Atzeni gets back on board his not down as riding yet but 33/1 is a joke
Rivet is drifting cos he most likely wont run. Haggas has left him in the race but suggested he will rather race in France insteadn
I also think this is a very good race, only the outcome is very open to me
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So I will only enjoy watching it..Struggling to see much value in this market now for those who aren’t on something ante-post. Churchill is too much of an unknown given this will be his first run of the year and I find the other main contenders difficult to separate.
on current conditions the only horse I can see beating the fav is his owners 2nd string Lancaster Bomber,this fellow will get the mile no problem and could easily drop a big bomb on bomber commands leader Winston…42’s is massive and 17’s without the fav is huge…Chocks away chaps.
It’s a good to have you flying alongside me TAPK
It certainly would not be the 1st time the AOB outsider caused a shock would it ?
A good price you got there if he runs because he will start sub 16’s i think on the day.The trainer mentioned him being trained for the Preekness which probably caused a massive drift on the exchanges the last few weeks which is still probably still built into his price. No surprise to see him still run in that though followed possibly by the Belmont Stakes.
100% i believe he is not there as a pacemaker for his stable mate, but running on his own merits this time around.
Tally ho
This is surely the strongest Guineas in years. We have the winners and runners up of both the main trials, an Andre Fabre hotpot and last years Champion 2 year old. What else could you want?
I know a lot of people are thinking it is just a case of Churchill turning up in form and I am a huge fan myself, but I couldn’t help thinking that last year there was a shortage of proper milers. A lot of the best horses were either better over shorter like Blue Point or better over further like I’m sure Rivet will be. Also there was a huge virus that infected most of the Newmarket stables and many of the French ones which is why I think we are now seeing the unexposed maidens coming to the fore. For me, Churchill’s best trip will turn out to be 10f and he may just be done for toe in this his first outing of the season. Saying that, they will clearly go hell for leather and set the race up for him and he may just have too much power and too much class.
For me Andre Fabre is probably the greatest living trainer so if he is saying that Al Wukair will finish in the first three you can be sure he probably will. Will the ground be a bit quick for him though? My heart would sing if Eminent won and I have a bit of ante-post on him (though not as much as Jac!!!). He will benefit from the strong pace and will be doing all his best work late on. I’d love a little drop of rain between now and Saturday but I’m not sure we are going to get it.
I can’t help thinking that the Greenham was a really good race. The front two pulled a long way clear and obviously it would take a bit of creative thinking to imagine how the result could be reversed over a longer trip on a tougher track. When I got back from Newbury that day I was adamant that Dream Castle would be a Commonwealth horse but it is interesting that Godolphin are willing to take on their own horse again. I have watched the race a few times and for me DC was actually the most impressive horse of the whole week. He had no cover and was very keen and that cost him in the end but the way he quickened clear despite all that at the 2f pole was super impressive. I am sure he will turn out to be a proper Group 1 horse, the question is over which trip? IF and it’s a proper “IF”, the combination of a hood and SDS getting some cover on him during the race helps him settle better I can see him being bang there. Remember they are going to go hard and fast which will help him in that regard. I expect him to be played as late as possible and, at 16-1, he might just represent the value that the previous poster was after.
Either way, I believe this race is going to won by a serious racehorse and I for one can’t wait!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
This Guineas should be about who improves most this spring. Looking at their last runs and previous RPR marks sees the following:-
Barney Roy 88>114 +26 lbs
Eminent 84>113 +29 lbs
Al Wukair 77>105>117 +28 then +12Churchill has had a lot more runs than the above and his improvements last season were as follows from race to race:- 21 lbs, 6 lbs, 5 lbs, 9 lbs and 1 lb.
Churchill sits on a RPR of 121 and the problem you reach with that sort of mark is that it gets very difficult to make much more improvement because of the ability ceiling rapidly approaching. As a general rule of thumb I usually propose 130 as the likely level a 3yo can reach. Obviously a few will exceed that mark and the odd rare one will hit 140 but I would suggest that putting a theoretical maximum of 130 on Churchill is a fair mark to set.
The question then becomes whether Churchill can reach that mark and whether he will need to to win this Guineas.
I would say all three behind him in the current betting could be expected to reach Churchill’s current mark. The scope is there for all to see given that they are not far behind now and Al Wukair probably found the 7F sharp enough last time.
I would estimate Churchill needs to improve between 5 and 7 lbs at least, which is feasible. However, can he do it conceding match fitness, to three unbeaten, potential improvers?
I don’t think last year’s Guineas was that great. Galileo Gold, Awtaad and The Gurkha seemed to take turns beating one another before Minding and Ribchester beat what was left of them after The Gurkha was injured. It didn’t look that hot to me and I see every reason to expect a better horse than those from the various Guineas last season, to emerge on Saturday.
I feel this looks a solid enough renewal between four horses and a handful of chaff as the supporting cast.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
on current conditions the only horse I can see beating the fav is his owners 2nd string Lancaster Bomber,this fellow will get the mile no problem and could easily drop a big bomb on bomber commands leader Winston…42’s is massive and 17’s without the fav is huge…Chocks away chaps.
It’s a good to have you flying alongside me TAPK
It certainly would not be the 1st time the AOB outsider caused a shock would it ?
A good price you got there if he runs because he will start sub 16’s i think on the day.The trainer mentioned him being trained for the Preekness which probably caused a massive drift on the exchanges the last few weeks which is still probably still built into his price. No surprise to see him still run in that though followed possibly by the Belmont Stakes.
100% i believe he is not there as a pacemaker for his stable mate, but running on his own merits this time around.
Tally ho
The more I watch Churchill the more I see a horse who needs further than a mile,his victories come with him ridden in about 3rd place and he makes his move a furlong out being ridden to do so and he forges his way clear at the line.I think he’ll get the Derby trip myself and if he’s to win the Guineas en route he’s going to need a good even gallop as Aiden loves to tell us.’Spirit of Valor’ isn’t good enough to do that and thats why I’m certain connections will again use Lancaster Bomber,he has done the donkey work for ‘Winston’ on 3 previous occassions remember,had the Dewhurst been over a 1m he may even have won such was the way he was coming back.Having had a ‘Pipeopener’ in the UAE Derby the ‘Lancaster’ should be primed to take off on Saturday and he wont be stopping.I am convinced this fellow could win the Guineas strictly on his Dewhurst form and if ‘Churchills’ just in need of it there wont be much between them.The 17’s without the fav is massive as a Tabor 1-2 is quite possible.If there is a Bombshell between now and Saturday it will be ‘Churchill’ not running,if thats the case ‘The Bomber’ goes off single figures,I’ve taken the 42’s just in case.
Nice one Gord, are you going to let me off with it if it wins, cause probably i laid it to you
I backed Lancaster Bomber on his debut as he was well related. Tough horse and nothing would surprise me anymore so wouldn’t surprise me if he won.
Tempted to think Eminent each way at 11-2 is the most solid bet. He can’t finish out of the frame can he? And if he places you get your money back.
Well going by the replies, I’m obviously alone in thinking it (on paper) looks an average renewal.
I’ll find something the day before probably to take Churchill on with as an each way but I’ve decided I won’t be playing big at all here.
Churchill could be anything I guess.
Al Wukair and Barney Roy have been good and impressive but are they future superstars? Probably not.
Eminent – meh. Could win as he likes Newmarket.
Lancaster Bomber – I’ve never been one to fancy a second string horse (in the trainers mind) particularly
For me, I’m just gutted Caravaggio isn’t here. 9 months ago was when I first played him for last years Royal Ascot and this years guineas. Small stakes but huge price.
Perhaps that has made me think that everything else is just not as good.
Should be a good race though
As for the person who said me saying I dont think it’s a great renewal is cliche, that’s unfair really. This years and last years 2000 Guineas, last years Oaks and St Leger and this years Derby are the only classics in the last 5 years I’d say I’ve commented are looking below average quality wise.
And since my Derby comment, the race has looked a little bit better anyway.
I don’t often agree with TAPK but each-way Lancaster Bomber at 33/1+ would seem to be the obvious value call.
He handles the track, should have no problems with the ground and his Dewhurst second could easily be better form than any of the trials. The discrepancy in price is just too much.
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