2000 Guineas 2017

Churchill has hit 2/1.

Anyone concerned?

Obviously none of us can know about what might or might not be happening at Ballydoyle so hopefully the drift is just a reaction to some firm candidates emerging among the opposition. I think they all still have an awful lot more to do to get anywhere near Churchill and 2/1 looks a very big price.

admin wrote:

Obviously none of us can know about what might or might not be happening at Ballydoyle so hopefully the drift is just a reaction to some firm candidates emerging among the opposition. I think they all still have an awful lot more to do to get anywhere near Churchill and 2/1 looks a very big price.

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Agree entirely. None of the trials form amounted to what Churchill has done and beating rivet by just over a length isn’t guineas winning form. Barney Roy looked so reminiscent of his dad but it’s very hard to evaluate the form. As is the way with ballydoyle when they have the guineas favourite we don’t see them till Newmarket so it’s all guesswork. I’d love to see barney Roy win as I was a huge fan of his dad but suspect Churchill will do just enough to win and then should Caravaggio win the French guineas or order of the garter the Irish version we might just see Churchill at epsom. Not long to find out if Churchill has trained on.

My concern would be, if they have run that fast first time out, on quick ground, could there be some bounce factor involved?

Kentucky Spring wrote:

I predict, hope, a Frankel wins this. Maybe an unraced one as of yet, maybe Seven Heavens or Gosden’s other horse Cracksman…if not, most likely a Galileo son will win it…
Long time to go and I could be so wrong.
Merry Christmas and happy holidays You All!

Think I’ll throw Churchill and “all Frankel’s” in combinations, though there’s danger from sons of other sires.

Could see Eminent making the running if nobody else does – at 8F he will need a good pace to run off and he looks a straight forward kind of horse

I don’t think Lancaster Bomber has a prayer. He hardly looked speedy in the UAE Derby. I feel it’s a bad omen for Churchill if they need to run Lancaster Bomber.

This looks a four horse race and having watched the trials and last season’s Dewhurst again, I am convinced Al Wukair has the sharpest turn of foot in this field.

The biggest worry with Fabre’s colt is how far off the pace he will be.

Eminent came into the Craven with some concern from his trainer regarding the trip. Barney Roy ran down Dream Castle but I am convinced that horse didn’t get home and Hannon’s colt came under pressure earlier in the race than I like to see for Guineas colt.

I feel Al Wukair can rattle home in the final furlong and swamp the leaders. It’s pretty hard to fault his unbeaten status and comfortable win from a Lagardere winner who had landed that top 2yo race in runaway style last year.

Triptych wrote:

LD73 wrote:

Could see Eminent making the running if nobody else does – at 8F he will need a good pace to run off and he looks a straight forward kind of horse

Every time Eminent has made his run at Newmarket he has come from off the pace with a blistering run down into the dip flying past rivals on the uphill finish to win going away and that’s what I would be happy to see him doing on Saturday, not sure making the running would suit him but more than happy to see him emulate his dad if he did.
Good luck if you back him LD Jac

Not had a bet in the race at all and I would only advocate the front running tactics if there was no early pace on – I don’t see him as having push button acceleration but having to be wound up from around the bushes but once he does get rolling he does shift. Also think he is a genuine Derby type horse as well

I also think Dream Castle is an interesting runner (they plan to put a hood on him) and I don’t subscribe to the not staying part as he wasted so much energy for half of the Greenham and yet still had Barney flat to the boards before his exertions took their toll. If they can get him settled early on he is a player at a bigger price.

For me the more I look at Churchill’s form the less convinced I am about him – the Dewhurst form looks iffy as he beat Rivet (who they got the tactics on completely wrong) by 3L and Seven Heavens (who was virtually unrideable) by 5L with Lancaster Bomber less than 2L behind when he was beaten 9L in the National Stakes previously. In the same National Stakes he beat the non staying Mehmas by just over 4L, at Royal Ascot he scrambled home to beat Isomer 1/2L (who was later beaten by over 5L by War Decree) and the fully exposed Cunco by 1.5L.

For me Churchill not only needs to have trained on (should of but no guarantee) but needs to have made more than the normal improvement from 2 to 3 to win (he could have just been ahead of his contemporaries maturity wise as a 2yr old), add in he is taking on race fit rivals (some that he has not faced before) and the indifferent form of the stable and it would not surprise me in the least if he doesn’t even make the frame.

Personally hoping for a double Frankel strike with Eminent and Fair Eva

@LD…Do agree with you about no early pace in the Guineas the concern being if they split into two groups as they often do the horses/jockeys drawn in the middle then have to decide where the pace will be, I’ve no doubt Eminent could blaze a trail like Frankel did but hope he doesn’t have to do that.
As Eminent doesn’t owe me anything I’m with him for the Guineas 100% and good luck with your Frankel Guineas double but don’t leave out Queen Kindly who could spring a surprise if she runs.
Can’t wait to get back to Newmarket and see all these beautiful horses, great racing ahead..Jac