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Buratino will start well shorter than his current odds but I feel he is held by the favourite now.
A lot of water has passed under the bridge since the Coventry and Air Force Blue ran a great race despite being a fair way behind Buratino on the day of the Royal Ascot race, considering his lack of experience and the lightning fast ground that made it more like a true sprint.
It’s not set in stone for me that Buratino will get the mile. It is one thing to close on a faster horse at 6f but another to have a truly run mile to cover.
I really feel a good number of colts will be pulled out of this race and it is easy to see why anything that is more or less certain to run, will be appealing for each-way value against Air Force Blue.
Looking back at Buratino’s Epsom win it looked a special performance at the time but Epsom is a funny course, normally avoided by trainers of good two year olds. Buratino faced horses rated in the 70’s and 80’s that day and it’s no wonder he blew them away. From more than 20 races involving horses who ran in the Woodcote, only one horse has won since and that was a nursery won off a mark of 75. It really was a lousy contest Buratino apart.
It is my belief that Air Force Blue took a big step forward when upped to 7f in the National Stakes. He dwelt at the start that day but come the 2f marker he was cantering over his field. It took him a little time to gather his full momentum but he fairly drew away in the closing stages and was full of running. I am sure he would have won further had it been a mile that day.
I was ultra confident going into the Dewhurst that Emotionless was a bad favourite and that Air Force Blue was the better colt. My confidence seemed like Gosdenesque pessimism compare to that of owner Michael Tabor however, who was utterly convinced the horse was something special. The way the race panned out the feelings of the owner looked entirely justified.
People are nibbling Emotionless in and while he was injured in the Dewhurst and the excuse seemed to devalue the merit of Air Force Blue’s win, I do not see the same solidity in the Godoplhin horse’s form. His win in the Champagne Stakes just doesn’t excite me the way it did some people and I have grave doubts that runner up Ibn Malik is really as good as his rating coming in suggested. I feel Emotionless will ultimately go off a poor value price on the day and would rather take Buratino at what is getting to be twice the price in places.
Loads of the horses fairly prominent in the list just aren’t going to be running. Massaat is one who should be there and he has each-way claims at a fair looking 14/1 but I have fired enough bullets at this now and I just can’t see him reversing the Dewhurst form with Air Force Blue, so the win part looks unlikely.
As long as Air Force Blue has trained on, I think he will win this readily. Reports in December were that he had filled his frame out into an awesome size. He will get the mile in my opinion and he seems to have pleased connections to the extent that he will travel alone to Newmarket. I would expect to see him come there cruising with 2f to go and then stretch away.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Looking at Royal Artillery at 16/1 makes me recoil in horror. He is only a maiden winner and even if John Gosden is a leading name you don’t get a Golden Horn every year and the Guineas is harder to win with these lightly raced maiden winners. The value is non existent with this son of War Front.
A bargain compared to Faydhan at this time last year.
To be fair to Gosden, Nathaniel, The Fugue, Kingman, Taghrooda, Jack Hobbs and Golden Horn in the last four years is not too bad. But, the Derby looks like a more realistic prospect again for him this year. Btw, Air Force Blue will strictly speaking still be 2 years of age, albeit not in racing terms, when contesting the 2000 Guineas. Has there been such a late born winner of the race before?
Air Force Blue won’t be biologically three until the 2nd of May. That is probably unusual for a Guineas contender.
However, it does not concern me because the colt was able to make a winning debut in the month of May last year and he then ran very creditably on his second start in the Coventry stakes, where he met more experienced and older colts.
Sometimes these later born foals need time to see a racecourse and you might be a bit worried that the early season classics come too soon for them.
At the other end of the scale we have Royal Artillery who is short enough for a horse rated 88. Yes he is open to loads of improvement but he is a January foal who didn’t make his debut until late October, so I would be more concerned about him finding this coming all too soon.
Foundation was reported to have sparkled in his work with Rab Havlin up last week and there was also a positive word for the unraced Galileo colt of Gosden’s called Lord Napier.
Lord Napier is entered in the Derby and up until the 3rd March was owned by Mrs John Magnier but has now come under the ownership of the following tongue twisting group:-
Shirke Dhunjibhoy Desai Magnier & Tabor
Sort of sounds like a law firm but I note the last two named are familiar suspects.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Foundation is entered in the Craven on Thursday and has Frankie jocked up.
I am taking this as an indication that they intend to go for the Guineas if all goes well in the trial. I have an each-way saver on Foundation at 20/1 and would expect him to go clear second favourite for the 2000 Guineas with a win in the Craven.
16/1 each way Foundation could look an excellent alternative to the hot favourite come the 30th of April.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The best ew bet would have been aidens second string but it seems air force blue will be his sole runner. Looks like there could be cracking winners of both guineas. Just need a good Derby winner. Could be any horse that was unraced at 2. I’ll wait till Chester then make my choice then.
Air Force Blue will be very hard to beat. But after chipping a bone in his knee in (or just before) the Dewhurst it’s good to see Emotionless is expected to make the Guineas. Back on a racecourse albeit in a piece of work. Encouragement also in the horse he beat 3 1/2 lengths – Ibn Malik – with a minimum of effort at Doncaster (with 7 back to the 3rd) won the Free Handicap today by 2 lengths off a mark of 107. Whatever happens at Newmarket, hopefully Emotionless will be able to realise his potential.
Value Is Everythingdont know what is in the saddle on these gallops,but i was not that impressed with the piece of work.
Yes the form of the Champagne was given a boost today,but if you HAD to look for something to beat AFB i would be looking elsewhere,but i have been wrong many times in the pastI’ve put him up earlier, but whilst there are still a couple of firms left offering 20/1,
Tote and Betfred, I thought that I should mention BURATINO again. I’ve looked several
times at his race in the Pheonix Stakes to try and come up with a reason, or excuse, as
to why he was beaten by Air Force Blue.He beat AFB fair and square in the Coventry, although to be fair he was more experienced
at that point. In the Pheonix he didn’t pick up as I had hoped at the crucial time, running
on well but never going to threaten the winner. If there may be an explanation, and I realise
some will say that I’m clutching at straws, it could be that this was BURATINO’s 4th race in
the space of 10 weeks, that’s asking a lot from a big 2 year old still growing into his frame.Compare that to AFB who after being beaten by Buratino in the Coventry, his 2nd race, had a break
of 7 weeks, before taking him on again in only his 3rd run of the season, compared to BURATINO’S
7th.BURATINO then has a lay off of some 7 weeks, before taking on Shaala, who to my mind is an
outstanding sprinter, in the Middle Park. He got the march on Buratino, who was closing all the
time, and whilst he was nearest at the finish, I’m not going to kid myself that he should have won,
Shaala was eased near the line. Nevertheless, had it been over 7 furlongs, I’ve little doubt that
Buratino would have reeled him in.I think he will have strengthened up, and going fresh for the 2000 Guineas will be no hinderence to
his chances, as Mark Johnston knows how to get a horse fit 1st time out. In my book 20/1 is a crazy price
for him. I think he is nailed on for a place at least, but I think he is good enough to win. Time
will tell.My concern with your horse BigG is that he ran 8 times yet didn’t step up to 7 furlongs at any point.
Instead of stepping up to that distance and taking on Air Force Blue in the Dewhurst they went Middle Park.
It’s a bit of a jump from 6f to the mile and maybe they didn’t want to stretch him as a two year with him still growing etc but then again 8 races for a two year isn’t a light campaign.Blackbeard to conquer the World
It’s a big leap of faith to suggest buratino can beat afb over a mile but I do expect a bold show. Emotionless could give the fav something to think about but coming back from his injury and expecting him to topple the favour first time out is asking a lot. Given the strength of afb in the market either of the other two horses ew seems a bet to nothing. There seems to be massive confidence behind the fav and he seems to have grown massively. The only thing it seems that will beat him is if he either hasn’t trained on or isn’t match fit. We’ll find out soon enough.
My concern with your horse BigG is that he ran 8 times yet didn’t step up to 7 furlongs at any point.
Instead of stepping up to that distance and taking on Air Force Blue in the Dewhurst they went Middle Park.
It’s a bit of a jump from 6f to the mile and maybe they didn’t want to stretch him as a two year with him still growing etc but then again 8 races for a two year isn’t a light campaign.I take you point Nathan, about not stepping up and having a lengthy campaign, it’s not your
usual campaign for a horse aimed at a classic. I think this horse improved more than was
perhaps thought. After his Woodcote win, notice was seriously taken of his classic prospects
and that’s when Godolphin stepped in and bought him. He had three races after that, going the
same route as Air Force Blue in the first two. The only difference after that was, as you said,
was he went for the Middle Park. Again you may have hit the nail on the head, he is a big horse
and perhaps, and I’m obviously guessing here, it may have been thought that they would leave him
until the following year to strengthen up, rather than risk draining him at that time over further.He isn’t the fastest out of the stalls, he’s always doing (Pheonix aside) his best work in the
closing stages. As I mentioned before, in the Middle Park, he was finishing really strongly and
I think he is going to improve for the extra 2 furlongs.I admit there are a few “if’s” in my assessment of his chances, but that’s why he’s still 20/1.
I might look a bit of an eejit when he peters out after 6f, but I really feel he is the real deal.
Just over a couple of weeks before I’m a wise old sage………or a rambling numpty
The only horse I can see getting near Air Force Blue personally is Blue De Vega. His last win was visually very impressive, and Black Sea has already come out and given that form a boost by winning the Irish Guineas trial. Unfortunately, it’s all a bit Nathra-like with him at the moment. Newmarket or France?
My concern with your horse BigG is that he ran 8 times yet didn’t step up to 7 furlongs at any point.
Instead of stepping up to that distance and taking on Air Force Blue in the Dewhurst they went Middle Park.
It’s a bit of a jump from 6f to the mile and maybe they didn’t want to stretch him as a two year with him still growing etc but then again 8 races for a two year isn’t a light campaign.I take you point Nathan, about not stepping up and having a lengthy campaign, it’s not your
usual campaign for a horse aimed at a classic. I think this horse improved more than was
perhaps thought. After his Woodcote win, notice was seriously taken of his classic prospects
and that’s when Godolphin stepped in and bought him. He had three races after that, going the
same route as Air Force Blue in the first two. The only difference after that was, as you said,
was he went for the Middle Park. Again you may have hit the nail on the head, he is a big horse
and perhaps, and I’m obviously guessing here, it may have been thought that they would leave him
until the following year to strengthen up, rather than risk draining him at that time over further.He isn’t the fastest out of the stalls, he’s always doing (Pheonix aside) his best work in the
closing stages. As I mentioned before, in the Middle Park, he was finishing really strongly and
I think he is going to improve for the extra 2 furlongs.I admit there are a few “if’s” in my assessment of his chances, but that’s why he’s still 20/1.
I might look a bit of an eejit when he peters out after 6f, but I really feel he is the real deal.
Just over a couple of weeks before I’m a wise old sage………or a rambling numpty I think the reason for Buratino running in the Middle Park rather than the Dewhurst was primarily the high regard owner companion Emotionless was held in. After Emotionless was so impressive in the Doncaster Champagne (7f) the obvious thing to do was aim (the already top class 2yo at 6f) Buratino at the Middle Park. Buratino settles well at 6 so you’d expect him to stay at least 7f. If dam Bergamask was put to a mile sire I’d have little doubt he’d get a mile. But Exceed And Excel is a very much a speed/sprinting influence. When you’re a “value” player there’s no need to make definite opinions: Will Buratino stay a mile? I’d say it’s 50/50.
Value Is Everythingdont know what is in the saddle on these gallops,but i was not that impressed with the piece of work.
Yes the form of the Champagne was given a boost today,but if you HAD to look for something to beat AFB i would be looking elsewhere,but i have been wrong many times in the pastYes, I’d agree with that nwalton, if I wasn’t already on certainly wouldn’t back him on that evidence.
Taken the 16/1 Foundation this morning. Seems to me more like a Guineas horse than Derby.
Value Is EverythingFoundation looks a live contender for the Winter Hill Stakes after that :D
This guy is a machine. All he does is work out and pick winners. Talk about fit. You should see him without his shirt off, serious side of beef.
Foundation won’t run in the 2000 Guineas.
He’s clearly a lot slower than they thought he was.
The horse started his career at a mile and that is normally an indication of a future middle distance horse.
I think that connections may have become obsessed with some of the speculation that the colt won’t get further than a mile on breeding and decided to keep their Guineas option open. They certainly got their answer today in no uncertain terms.
On today’s showing, I wouldn’t even be sure Foundation is fast enough for a Dante, let alone a 2000 Guineas.
Today’s winner may well be very smart though. He seemed to improve with every run last year and clearly handles soft ground. Antarctic Storm is generally 14/1 for the 2000 Guineas and while that doesn’t appeal to me, there will probably be plenty who think a Craven winner is value in the Guineas every year.
I am pretty nervous about my 33/1 on Foundation for the Derby after that showing. He was allegedly doing well on the gallops at home and if that is as good as he is, it doesn’t look good enough frankly.
Yet another Godolphin one backed and then no-show. I’d be a bit concerned for Emotionless myself.
My long term Air Force Blue/Blue De Vega forecast may yet come in
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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