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John Gosden said the Dante is probably Foundation’s next race, describing him as a “Mile and a quarter horse”
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Conditions the Craven was run in today – I don’t think any conclusions should be made about any horse, some will just refuse to give their running in a thunder storm and monsoon-like rain. It is therefore disappointing Foundation won’t be allowed his chance in the first Classic. Mile and a quarter horses don’t stay/aren’t able to show their form at a mile and a half unless it is slowly run, how many times is a Derby slowly run? It may well be that Foundation will need a mile and a quarter to show his best by season’s end; but most horses of that nature are able to show their form in a truly run mile in the early months of the season.
Value Is EverythingSo are you saying Gosden doesn’t know his arse from his elbow?
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Any news on Massaat ?
I fancy this to maybe be the only one to give AFB a race but haven’t heard anything over the Winter or lately.
And if AOB doesn’t win this then maybe Bolger has a nice horse tucked away like Smash Williams.
Didn’t he gallop at Newmarket? He looks the part but although the dam didn’t run beyond six furlongs I wonder if he is quick enough. Cue a sprinting career.
The Craven winner couldn’t have been much more impressive. If you just looked at his pedigree you wouldn’t think he would want soft ground and who knows maybe this year we will get slower conditions.
How much of a trial will the Greenham be now that it’s being run on the AW at Chelmsford?
How much of a trial will the Greenham be now that it’s being run on the AW at Chelmsford?
Probably a better one. You’d prefer to run your Classic prospects on a high-quality all-weather track instead of Newbury’s quagmire. The result will be more relevant to the 2000 Guineas too.
How much of a trial will the Greenham be now that it’s being run on the AW at Chelmsford?
I don’t think it will make much difference really. If there is a contender in there, he will show himself.
Looking back at the Craven, Stormy Antarctic isn’t getting the credit for beating Foundation. Thunderstorm or not, the horse was cantering over Foundation from a fair way out and quite frankly demolished him for pace.
Strictly speaking, Foundation never looked like a Guineas horse from day one. He started his career at a mile and that’s not really indicative of a horse who will be a specialist miler. The Royal Lodge and Racing Post Trophy are more often pointers to the Derby than the Guineas and when these types of horses can run in a Guineas it is often with the expectation that a good, staying on, run may put them in the picture for Epsom.
I think it was Lydia Hislop that first, or perhaps most vociferously, stated that Foundation wouldn’t get an inch beyond a mile based on his pedigree, a statement I strongly disagreed with. It seemed to be that connections have kept that in mind by retaining the Guineas in the mix for the horse’s options this spring.
John Gosden seemed sceptical that the colt was a Guineas horse, stating before the race that 10f was where he felt the horse belonged. His sentiment seemed borne out in the race and any notion that Foundation could go to the Guineas after that show and be competitive seems like a wet dream, with faster horses than the ones he faced in the Craven awaiting.
Sometimes in life, you just have to accept that you have made a bad call and I did that when I binned my saver bet on Foundation, which was made with the thinking that a soft ground Guineas might blunt Air Force Blue and other potentially speedy types.
If it is soft on 30th April, Stormy Antarctic must need some respecting, with perhaps the danger now being that he has beaten a Craven field that didn’t amount to much. Shogun was well exposed last year and has only won a maiden so far and the Godolphin horse was talked up as working well but is hardly the first of theirs to fail to deliver in Guineas trials amongst a generally disappointing assault on the Classics for them in recent years.
Joseph O Brien said that Air Force Blue is now 16.2 hands tall and built like a tank. It is still strong in my memory the way Michael Tabor dismissed the interviewer’s statement just before the Dewhurst that “Minding looked special earlier this week” with the comment “She’s not as special as this one!!”
I reckon Air Force Blue would go past Foundation like a Ferrari going past a Sinclair C5.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Aiden obrien regularly runs good horses at dundalk rather than run on heavy ground on turf. I don’t think running the Greetham at Chelmsford will make any difference. If there is a guineas prospect in the field I’m sure it will come to the fore. Don’t think minding has got the recognition she deserves. Nathras win at hq only show just what an awesome performance that was in the fillies mile. Meanwhile afb gets shorter by the day. Unless we have a training mishap he will go off mighty short. Foundations running style suggested 10f was his trip so can’t see what the fuss is all about. No quick enough for the guineas. Stormy antarctic is being underestimated and gets the trip and handles soft. Must be good for
at least a place in the guineas surely. Also makes johannes vermeer seem a decent bet for the derby. Not sure what’s happening with Marcel.Just four runners in the Greenham and to be frank there looks nothing there that seems anywhere near Guineas class.
I would question the stamina of the first two in the betting as well and it looks like zero impact on the Guineas market is the odds on scenario here, with as poor a Greenham as I can recall.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Log Out Island wouldn’t get a mile with a furlong head start and wearing spikes on his horsey shoes.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
BURATINO….Did a gallop down the Rowley Mile at Newmarket on Craven Stakes day (Thursday)
He blew the other horse away and stormed up the hill..really impressive
Currently 20/1 and definitely worth an each way bet and I think he has a good chance of winning. JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I think it is best not to get too excited about any of these gallops. It is probably easier to read negatives than positives. The gallop was no doubt set up to make Buratino look visually impressive and that is what happened. What he actually achieved is anyone’s guess.
For me he remains a bit of puzzle. He has had far more experience than a usual Guineas contender so it would be natural to think several might improve beyond his level. If you fancy him you are looking for him to reproduce the Coventry Stakes running over a couple of extra furlongs. If you believe he can then 20/1 might be a bit of value. His full brother won at a very lowly level at the distance so not sure how much a guide that would be. You also have to ask having beaten Air Force Blue why was he so disappointing when expected to confirm the form at the Curragh. Returning to the gallop all his form has been on good or quicker so are we to believe he now relishes a slower surface? Was Johnston running him over the wrong distance and the wrong ground? Or was that gallop not quite what it looked?
BURATINO….Did a gallop down the Rowley Mile at Newmarket on Craven Stakes day (Thursday)
He blew the other horse away and stormed up the hill..really impressive
Currently 20/1 and definitely worth an each way bet and I think he has a good chance of winning. JacDefinitely Jac, I’ve been singing his praises for a while now on this thread. If
he has strengthened up to fill that big frame, and his gallop sounds really encouraging,
then like you say he shouldn’t be a 20/1 shot. I’m glad he was as I’ve had a good punt,
but I don’t think he will be half those odds come the day.Thanks for that update Jac
What concerns me about War Front horses is that they don’t appear to improve a great deal from 2 to 3 and so I’m having a slight doubt about Air Force Blue’s improvement and he could (not saying that he will) end up like War Command or Declaration Of War … good but not quite Carling!
I’m sticking with Emotionless for the 2000. Any horse who runs with a chipped bone in its knee is gonna put in a dismal effort and so I’m putting a broad black line through his Dewhurst flop. Come the day, I think he’ll be the primary danger and put in a sterling performance.
I’m not ruling out Marcel either and looks a solid contender for a big run and could well show that his Racing Post Trophy shock was no fluke. Pat Smullen was said to be “delighted” with his exercise spin on Thursday just gone.
Also, I might risk a tenner on Royal Artillery *throws a pinch of salt*
I do heed Stilvi’s words of caution regarding not getting too excited about the gallops and Mark Johnston is one to keep his cards very close to his chest about all his runners, but I have been really looking for something to take on Air Force Blue with in the Guineas and seeing Buratino on Thursday was a revelation the way he coped with the tough uphill finish on the Rowley Mile ridden by James Doyle, so I’m with BigG in taking an each way chance that he will get home.
Not sure if this link will work but this was the gallop on Thursday:-
http://www.racinguk.com/news/article/42385/johnston-lumiere-and-buratino-just-perfect-ahead-guineasThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...The link works fine Jac, he does look in fine fettle. Johnston says everything has gone
well and nothing more needs done now, he’s ready. I’m not getting carried away, well not
just yet, but I’m quite excited about his chancesI am not keen on reading much into work gallops. The horse Buratino “beat” was rated 85 and there would be something far wrong if he couldn’t demolish him. Had we put Air Force Blue up against an 85 rated horse what would happen?
5/6 Air Force Blue may not look a big price but there will be worse bets at those odds.
“He’s got Buratino in his hands…… he’s got Emotionless in his hands……. he’s got Massaat in his hands, he’s got the whole field in his hands”
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
at least a place in the guineas surely. Also makes johannes vermeer seem a decent bet for the derby. Not sure what’s happening with Marcel.
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