- This topic has 530 replies, 74 voices, and was last updated 14 years, 5 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
6/1 looks pretty skinny to me considering 1. he doesn’t travel too fluently 2. he went markedly right 3. his half-brother didn’t want to know at all in the next race 4. the yard haven’t had a good one in quite a while &
5. Ahern will be on-top.1. A worry admittedley, I can see him finishing second to a specialist miler like New Approach did.
2. Hopefully if he goes right in the Guineas he’ll be clear of the majority of the field.
3. Irrelevent
4. JD has had a number of goon ‘uns so i’m not worried about that.
5. Eddie Ahern was on-top my biggest ever winner, and that was on the Rowley mile as well. He’ll do for me.Racing Post Trophy Winning Times:
Motivator – (S) – 1m 41.62s (slow by 3.12s) ’04
Palace Episode – (H) – 1m 45.10s (slow by 6.60s) ’05
Ibn Khaldun – (G) – 1m 37.62s (fast by 0.88s) ’07
Crowed House – (G) – 1m 39.17s (slow by 0.67s) ’08
St Nicholas Abbey – G/S) – 1m 39.62s (slow by 1.12s) ’09Craven Stakes Wining Times:
Adagio – (G/F) – 1m 35.55s (fast by 0.45s) ’07
Twice Over – (G) – 1m 38.54s (slow by 2.54s) ’08
Delegator – (G/F) – 1m 36.56s (slow by 0.56s) ’09
Elusive Pimpernel – (G/F) – 1m 37.16s (slow by 1.16s) ’10Compare some of these…note: ‘Adagio’ clocked a better time than that lot listed there and was unplaced…Delegator clocked a good time and still found one too good – it’s dodgy to use times Fry esp as you haven’t got any to compare with the ones that will turn up on the day.
Moore said he’ll be better in a quick run race…I find it very amusing to hear all these "X is definitely going to win" comments before the Guineas. The truth is that it is one of the hardest races to anticipate because so many come to it without a run, and frequently a horse drastically changes between 2 & 3 yrs. This year is no different – we cannot rely on the EXTREMELY promising performances of Awzaan & SNA last year, and while we will get to see Arcano/CC in action, and already saw EP in action, the fact is that we can only compare them against each other, while still in the dark about major unknowns in SNA, Awzaan, not to mention Workforce, Inler, etc.
- Total Posts 17716
I find it very amusing to hear all these "X is definitely going to win" comments before the Guineas. The truth is that it is one of the hardest races to anticipate because so many come to it without a run, and frequently a horse drastically changes between 2 & 3 yrs. This year is no different – we cannot rely on the EXTREMELY promising performances of Awzaan & SNA last year, and while we will get to see Arcano/CC in action, and already saw EP in action, the fact is that we can only compare them against each other, while still in the dark about major unknowns in SNA, Awzaan, not to mention Workforce, Inler, etc.
Disagree!
The race usually falls to one of the more fancied horses, and blind-backing the first 6 in the betting would have produced 9 of the last 10 winners – and a healthy profit.My trends only go back to 1995 but continue the same pattern and you’d have had 14 of the last 15 (well, Island Sands was joint 6th favourite).
And a lot of money offering Workforce at 17s now.
- Total Posts 17716
Racing Post Trophy Winning Times:
Motivator – (S) – 1m 41.62s (slow by 3.12s) ’04
Palace Episode – (H) – 1m 45.10s (slow by 6.60s) ’05
Ibn Khaldun – (G) – 1m 37.62s (fast by 0.88s) ’07
Crowed House – (G) – 1m 39.17s (slow by 0.67s) ’08
St Nicholas Abbey – G/S) – 1m 39.62s (slow by 1.12s) ’09Craven Stakes Wining Times:
Adagio – (G/F) – 1m 35.55s (fast by 0.45s) ’07
Twice Over – (G) – 1m 38.54s (slow by 2.54s) ’08
Delegator – (G/F) – 1m 36.56s (slow by 0.56s) ’09
Elusive Pimpernel – (G/F) – 1m 37.16s (slow by 1.16s) ’10Compare some of these…note: ‘Adagio’ clocked a better time than that lot listed there and was unplaced…Delegator clocked a good time and still found one too good – it’s dodgy to use times Fry esp as you haven’t got any to compare with the ones that will turn up on the day.
Moore said he’ll be better in a quick run race…You’re doing it all wrong, raw times mean nothing fella.
- Total Posts 17716
Can’t believe anyone has backed Elusive Pimpernel to win the 2000 guineas. Year after year something wins not too hot a trial and the bookies slash it’s odds.
Even if he’s improved and St Nicholas Abbey has stood still he’d still beat him IMO.
Got a real horse today in Canford Cliffs who for me is the only possible danger to SNA.
You can bet AOB will be glued to the telly for this one.
I don’t know what the trends say and care even less SNA is a machine as is CC and taking it he gets the trip he’s the only real danger to SNA.
If CC fails to see out 7f SNA will be odds on I reckon and the rest can stay home.
Fist, first of all, I’ve been backing Elusive Pimpernel for the past 2 months at prices between 25s and 38s. I certainly wouldn’t back him at 6s.
I agree completely with you that every year something wins a trial impressively and the odds get smashed but I’d argue all day long that that was the first proper Craven Stakes since Haafhd’s in 2004.
That had proper Group 1 form.
Adagio beat a Royal Ascot 4th and the Racing Post Trophy 5th. Democratic Deficit, won’t even bother going there, silly race. Twice Over, a Listed winner, beat the Dewhurst 4th and what else? Killybegs won a shocking race and Delegator’s was just as bad.
But Elusive Pimpernel destroyed the Racing Post Trophy 4th, 5th and what should have won the Horris Hill. Infinitely better form than anything since Haafhd.
I’d have preferred him to go to the Guineas without a prep, no question about that, but it looked like he needed it in the parade ring and if he can produce that turn of foot when unfit, lord help them in the Guineas. Fast ground, fast pace, boom, he’s the winner.
I was quite impressed with Elusive Pimpernel’s attitude and although I think we can’t read too much into his win, John Dunlop has every right to remain optimistic about his chances in the Guineas.
That said, I believe that there may be one or two better than him – especially over a mile – and one in particular runs today; namely Canford Cliffs, whom I will definitely back this afternoon, and who is the one colt out there who has the potential to shake up Aiden’s main contender at Newmarket.
However, should he fail to see off Arcano and company with the zest I’m hoping for, then a thick stroke of the black marker pen will immediately come into play as regards to his Guineas aspirations.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Last year the Dewhurst 5th met a superstar.
Gave him a hell of a race on the day mind.Quite like the 2nd and 3rd this time.
Will only bet on the day though, way too tricky (again).
So much for your quote then Zar!
I was just providing a basis of past times for people to draw there own conclusions from past performances.
That’s why races are timed and the going taken into account…if you went and backed every visually impressive looking winner that hacked up by a wide margin then you’d go skint if the clock didn’t back it up.
Whilst it’s true that a final time gives us no real story of how a race was run it does as least help put it perspective when comparing it to others that have been run say over the same distance on the same day etc…Did I say this this??:
SNA Doncaster 1min 39.62
On (G/S)
This is the person getting it wrong – trying to compare times from different tracks, on different going in a race for 2yr olds and another for 3yr olds!
You also can’t say this either and then knock the final time – as the false run race might not have suited the others i.e SNA! So to say that your fancy was at more of a disadvantage is pointless…
"First of all it was slow ground, which didn’t suit, and they didn’t go very fast, so it wasn’t a truly run race.
Interesting comments and good debate.
I’d like to pick up on one or two.
EP moving to the right. I’d say intelligent animal as that is the way the course goes after the finish and he would happily have carried on into Newmarket high street. He was slowing down for the last 100 yds so the win distance flatters those left trailing.
"Fry esp as you haven’t got any to compare with the ones that will turn up on the day.
Moore said he’ll be better in a quick run race…
You’re doing it all wrong, raw times mean nothing fella."Mr Wilson the point I was making was in reply to earlier posts that EP was too slow. Clearly he is not and up there. It’s like rowing there are too many other factors race on race (going, wind, pace etc.).
I say that 6-1 is still a very good ew bet. EP looks certain to make the frame so the win bet is for free at 4-1 or greater. I always do ratio bets so I’m very happy with my 20-1+ bets. Not as happy as Zarkarva – well done.
I can’t believe anyone would back SNA at 2-1 with no proof as a 3yo.
Then if we were all the same life would be boring, and there would be no bookmakers!
Don’t try to be too clever I said this:-
Sea the Stars winning time 1min 35.88 on faster going
Elusive Pimpernel (warm up and slowing down at the finish) 1min 37.16
SNA Doncaster 1min 39.62The times were over 1 mile. The first two were over the same CD. EP looks as good as Sea the Stars for the following:-
1. He was slowing down
2. The ground was not as fast.OK SNA was a 2yo and we all know it was a mile on a different course so it is very difficult to draw comparisons. But he is going to have to improve a lot.
Cockney Rebel’s 2000 Guineas winning time 1m 35.28s (fast by 0.72s)
Times mean nothing when they’re written like that. Two races run at a completely different pace can produce the same finishing time. Either they go a steady and consistent pace throughout, or they crawl and have a sprint finish.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.