2000 Guineas 2009

Maybe its my HK bias but:

Sea The Stars has the same dam as Derby, Irish Derby and King George winner, Galileo.

Urban Sea won the 1993 Arc for STS’ owner HK-based David Tsui (STS is registered in the name of his son Christopher).

In Galileo’s case the Northern Dancer blood came via Coolmore’s Sadler’s Wells.

In STS’ case the Northern Dancer blood came via Darley’s Cape Cross.

I reckon Urban Sea’s contribution on the distaff side puts Sea The Stars in with every chance of emulating Galileo. I think he’ll stay every inch of 12f.

Urban Sea sadly died a couple of months back from a foaling complication.

best regards

wit

Theres no real substance to my argument in the same way as there was no real substance to my argument when I said after the Craven last year that Ravens Pass on a fast surface would get 1m2f. When everyone else said he didnt see out a mile.

Sometimes you have to use your eyes and watch how a horse moves. STS is a good 2000 gns winner, of course he has won on other surfaces against weaker opposition, likewise Delegator has won on gd-fm against weaker opposition also. Its only when you come up against another horse as good as you who preferes the other surafce that you will be found out.

Who would have thought after the 2004 guineas that Azamour would beat Haafhd in the St James Palace. Who would have thought Araafa would have beaten George Washington on a slower surface after the 2006 guineas. There was a lot more between those two than there was between STS and Delegator and I think its very naive to assume that on any ground STS will always be in front when the two are clearly actioned differently.

I think we were in agreement on Raven’s Pass mate but not on this one. Time will tell how good he is. Was a funny old thread the Breeders. Myles was the first to go for RP by saying it was a penalty kick then said the same thing about Curlin. Aragorn was dead keen on his chances as were we and a few others. Different class of horse than this fellow IMO

What a suprise, once again gutless Blue Square go 5/2 for Sea The Stars to win the Derby

Same as Ladbrokes. Are they gutless?

Black Type, do you work for Blue Sq by any chance?

Lads shortened him to 5/2 since this morning. Corals put him up at 5/1

First BSq put Patkai at 2/1, now STS at 5/2, THAT is why I’m calling them gutless. They over react when others keep horses a full 2.5points further out

I certainly have no affinity for Blue Square whatsoever.
Patkai is now biggest price 10/3 with W Hill
Sea The Stars is now a standout 4/1 with Coral only

Before slagging off whoever goes shortest after a race (be it Blue Sq or whoever?), perhaps you should try pricing the horse yourself using your own opinion? Make a price that you feel you would be happy to lay the horse at. Its very easy to slag off whoever goes shortest without having any opinion of your own.

Why not have a go at pricing the top 10 in the Derby yourself and see what you come up with?

You do seem to be awfully offended by the remark, Black Type, if indeed you’re not affiliated with Blue Square in any way.

Perhaps halfwaytoheaven is simply commeting on the fact that Blue Square seem to be consistently shorter than every other firm. That is, of course, to the detriment of their business as people will simply look elsewhere, but it doesn’t make one person’s observation any less credible.

Still, you assured me Sea The Stars wouldn’t run in the 2000 Guineas so perhaps you’re not involved after all.

lol thats true. I did

I wasn’t awfully offended. Just said I had no link to them thats all.

It just gripes me because it is so easy to have a go at bookies that go shortest without doing any research yourself.

For me, I think Sea The Stars IS plenty short enough at 5/2.
As for Patkai, I stand by my assertion that 2/1 was not a ridiculous price.

BlueSquare are sh*t. They started off with 2/1 on that horse you’re talking about, now they’ve kicked off the market with 4/5 on Fantasia for the French Guineas. A decent firm wil show up those odds for what they are.

I wouldn’t open the market with odds on for this race. Bluesquare are starting off with prices that other firms let the price get hammered down to. If it’s to be such a short price, then let the punters hammer it down to that price. Alot of bookies will be banking on punters lack of knowledge on French horse racing.

Theres no real substance to my argument in the same way as there was no real substance to my argument when I said after the Craven last year that Ravens Pass on a fast surface would get 1m2f. When everyone else said he didnt see out a mile.

Sometimes you have to use your eyes and watch how a horse moves. STS is a good 2000 gns winner, of course he has won on other surfaces against weaker opposition, likewise Delegator has won on gd-fm against weaker opposition also. Its only when you come up against another horse as good as you who preferes the other surafce that you will be found out.

Who would have thought after the 2004 guineas that Azamour would beat Haafhd in the St James Palace. Who would have thought Araafa would have beaten George Washington on a slower surface after the 2006 guineas. There was a lot more between those two than there was between STS and Delegator and I think its very naive to assume that on any ground STS will always be in front when the two are clearly actioned differently.

I think we were in agreement on Raven’s Pass mate but not on this one. Time will tell how good he is. Was a funny old thread the Breeders. Myles was the first to go for RP by saying it was a penalty kick then said the same thing about Curlin. Aragorn was dead keen on his chances as were we and a few others. Different class of horse than this fellow IMO

There could be more substance to your argument that I thought mate as John Oxx said STS won’t run at Epsom if it’s soft. Could be he might be thinking he wouldn’t get the trip in testing conditions or it could be he thinks he needs fast ground to be seenat his best. He never made the full reason clear in the article I read.

Dont agree its a weak contest, an open one for sure. I think we will be looking at a mid 120’s winner of this years renewal.

Rip Van Winkle…..Has it all to prove at the price. Nothing in his 2yo form to make him the price he is today. Ballydoyle’s best winners of this race all had much better form at 2. Similar profile prep wise to Footstepsinthesand but this is a much better Guineas today. Damsire Stravinsky would be a worry as well. Who knows he could be a machine at home but on all known public evidence one to take on.

Mastercraftsman…..On raw ratings his best has been achieved in much different circumstances than today (small fields, heavy ground, shorter trips). Has his chance but no value on his 2yo form.

Delegator…..Cant make a case for him at the price either. Beat nothing in his maidens and was beaten by 2 of todays opponents in the Dewhurst with no obvious excuses. Impressive turn of foot in the Craven, looks a genuine good group horse but will be facing totally different circumstances than he did in the Craven. Add in the fact he drifts right under pressure, can only sustain the blinding acceleration for a furlong, will be held up with Spencer on board and his trainers reservations about fast ground. Can be taken on.

Evasive…..Nothing in his 2yo form to make him a player today but he can certainly improve as a 3yo, should get the trip and had the class to win the Horris Hill on ground he wouldn’t have liked. Master trainer.

Sea The Stars…..The Beresford was slowly run but Recharge has gone on the win the Leopardstown Guineas trial and Mourayan is towards the head of the Derby market. Some of the best 2yo form on show today at twice the price of the Ballydoyle horses. Doesn’t look the speediest so hopefully will be ridden towards the front away from the barging match in behind and keep galloping out of the dip. Big price.

Gan Amhras…..Form through Intense Focus and Masterofthorse the best in the book. Trainer and Jockey know exactly how its done, again not the speediest so hopefully will kick on from the front New Approach style. Was freely available at 20/1 earlier in the week still value at 10/1.

Lord Shanakill….Beaten twice over 7f as a 2yo, the Sire was a sprinter. Good 2yo form but worries about the trip.

Finjaan….Again concerns about the trip especially with his exuberant racing style.

Cityscape….Looks better on slower ground. The proximity of Icesolator in the Greenham would be a worry

Ashram….Looks a speed horse, nothing in his pedigree or Dewhurst run to suggest he will get a mile.

Ouqba….Looks like a mile is beyond him, doesnt look classy enough in any case.

Tactics wise a lot of these are more speed types so it could get messy. Will be fascinating to see how Spencer deals with it all. Hopefully the stamina horses can stay out of trouble from the front, keep galloping and have enough to hold off the closers.

Ballydoyle could be all over this one but you’d have to trust the home reports and hype to be taking those sort of prices and the trainer name is overfactored in the prices imo. So its Sea The Stars, Gan Amhras and Evasive 1 point win each at 11/1,11/1,10/1 respectively and a 2 point lay of Delegator at 4/1 who is the most vulnerable of the front 3 imo.

Thought this deserved to be brought to the fore. Really excellent run down and great tipping