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Sea The Stars is too big a price for me. He’ll get every yard of the mile and I can see him running on into a place or possibly better if one or two of the market principals disappoint. John Oxx would have just waited for the Derrinstown if he didn’t think he had a good chance by sending him to Newmarket.
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It looks a poor renewal, much as the bunch finish in last season’s Dewhurst suggested it might be.
I’ll take Finjaan at 25/1; probably unlucky in that race, he has the beating of many at shorter prices on that form alone, and ought to sneak a place at least.
Richard Hills prefers Ouqba, possibly because of stamina doubts about Finjaan, but the latter was coming back at ’em at the end of a well-run Dewhurst, and the faster ground tomorrow is probably a bonus.Have 1pt e/w Delegator @ 40-1
1pt e/w Cityscape @ 33-1
1pt e/w Lord Shanakill @ 33-1 + 1pt win @ 20-1
1 pt win Ouqba @ 22-1N/Rs
1pt e/w Intense Focus @ 25-1
1pt win Art Connoiseur @ 14-111pts in total. Come On Lord Shanakill…
Not very original, but I’d side with Rip Van Winky.
Many forumites mentioned after the race how tenderly he was ridden in the Dewhurst – which echoes my thoughts.
That was not as important as the Guineas, it was as if he was being looked after in that race.
The price has gone – but better to back a winner than a loser.
Oh dear, platitudes. Bye!
Zip
I would have preferred Murtagh onboard, but maybe it will work out positively… Coupled with the beating in France last time, Mastercraftsman may be able to go for a walk in the market here….
Outside of him I like Delegator,
Finjaan was a good looking horse last year,
Sea The Stars had some quality about him also, with time he could go well…. the same applies to Rip Van Winkle.This being the last 2yo race of the season, Mastercraftsman has the scores on the doors
Could anybody explain this sudden interest, nay, overzealousness for Gan Amhras?
He’s 8-1 with the major tote over here.
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Do I think Rip Van Winkle is a good thing? no far from it but he might just be good enough in what looks like a poor guineas to me.
FIST, do you think George Washington and Henrythenavigators guineas were poor renewals?
I wasn’t paying much attention tothe 2000 guineas when GW ran so can’t comment.
When Henrythenavigator won I was shocked. But I thought it looked a really good renewal. New Approcah had already showed he was a high class indiviudal who had both speed an stamina. I however thought there was an even better horse than him in the race and thought Raven’s Past looked a right horse. I was exceptionlly keen onhim and thought he would have too much toe for them. Ibn Khaldun was another horse with excellent form having won 4 on the trot but I guess something went wrong with him as he never ran again.
In short I thought it looked a very competitve renewal with 3 top class colts in it.
Unfortunately for me there turned out to be 4
Help: Can any one tell me about the distances in American races. I was looking back at Raven Pass win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and it say he won by 29 and 12 back to the 3rd.
28 and 12 what?
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Could anybody explain this sudden interest, nay, overzealousness for Gan Amhras?
He’s 8-1 with the major tote over here.
Looks like a combination of a few of things Myles. There is no real confidence behind any of the front 3. Intense Focus has already beaten RVW and Delegator yet Jom Bolger withdrew him in favour of Gan Amhras. Bolger doesn’t exacly have a bad record in classics and don’t forget Gan Amhras has already beaten Intense Focus. His defeat in his last race was probably due to the fact 7f is too short for him.
Punters are purely putting 2 and 2 together thinking the horse must have improved and his trainer must think he has a very good chance.
In an interview the other day Bolger did say he thought some of these might be a bit too quick for him but felt he could pick them up coming out of the dip he could be placed.
The notion that Bolger has selected just one arrow for this when he boasts a full quiver has been tossed around.
Not exactly the strongest guideline to Gan Amhras’ chances, particularly at his price.
Bet – Lord Shanakill and Ashram.
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It’s not like Intense Focus has been injured or anything he’s heading for France.
It could be he is the better of the two but he feels he isn’t good enough for this so he is sending him to France and thinks he may just be good enough to win there.
Then it might be a simple case that Gan Amhras has come on more than him and is a better horse. Time will tell.
This looks a very poor Guineas really doesn’t it? Practically anything has a chance and it doesn’t look a race thats going to throw up a Brigadier or a Nijinsky or a Dancing Brave.
I’ve had a small interest in Cityscape who hasn’t really had things to suit him previously, wasn’t fit last time over a shorter trip and average pace. Todays race should bring out the best in him. Whether or not he’s good enough is open to debate but at 16/1 he’s worth a small interest.
Wouldn’t surprise me whatever wins.
Dont agree its a weak contest, an open one for sure. I think we will be looking at a mid 120’s winner of this years renewal.
Rip Van Winkle…..Has it all to prove at the price. Nothing in his 2yo form to make him the price he is today. Ballydoyle’s best winners of this race all had much better form at 2. Similar profile prep wise to Footstepsinthesand but this is a much better Guineas today. Damsire Stravinsky would be a worry as well. Who knows he could be a machine at home but on all known public evidence one to take on.
Mastercraftsman…..On raw ratings his best has been achieved in much different circumstances than today (small fields, heavy ground, shorter trips). Has his chance but no value on his 2yo form.
Delegator…..Cant make a case for him at the price either. Beat nothing in his maidens and was beaten by 2 of todays opponents in the Dewhurst with no obvious excuses. Impressive turn of foot in the Craven, looks a genuine good group horse but will be facing totally different circumstances than he did in the Craven. Add in the fact he drifts right under pressure, can only sustain the blinding acceleration for a furlong, will be held up with Spencer on board and his trainers reservations about fast ground. Can be taken on.
Evasive…..Nothing in his 2yo form to make him a player today but he can certainly improve as a 3yo, should get the trip and had the class to win the Horris Hill on ground he wouldn’t have liked. Master trainer.
Sea The Stars…..The Beresford was slowly run but Recharge has gone on the win the Leopardstown Guineas trial and Mourayan is towards the head of the Derby market. Some of the best 2yo form on show today at twice the price of the Ballydoyle horses. Doesn’t look the speediest so hopefully will be ridden towards the front away from the barging match in behind and keep galloping out of the dip. Big price.
Gan Amhras…..Form through Intense Focus and Masterofthorse the best in the book. Trainer and Jockey know exactly how its done, again not the speediest so hopefully will kick on from the front New Approach style. Was freely available at 20/1 earlier in the week still value at 10/1.
Lord Shanakill….Beaten twice over 7f as a 2yo, the Sire was a sprinter. Good 2yo form but worries about the trip.
Finjaan….Again concerns about the trip especially with his exuberant racing style.
Cityscape….Looks better on slower ground. The proximity of Icesolator in the Greenham would be a worry
Ashram….Looks a speed horse, nothing in his pedigree or Dewhurst run to suggest he will get a mile.
Ouqba….Looks like a mile is beyond him, doesnt look classy enough in any case.
Tactics wise a lot of these are more speed types so it could get messy. Will be fascinating to see how Spencer deals with it all. Hopefully the stamina horses can stay out of trouble from the front, keep galloping and have enough to hold off the closers.
Ballydoyle could be all over this one but you’d have to trust the home reports and hype to be taking those sort of prices and the trainer name is overfactored in the prices imo. So its Sea The Stars, Gan Amhras and Evasive 1 point win each at 11/1,11/1,10/1 respectively and a 2 point lay of Delegator at 4/1 who is the most vulnerable of the front 3 imo.
Any future stars from this lot? It wouldn’t surprise me if there wasn’t.
However, I expect a large number of these to remain prominent in Pattern class for an extended period.
Might need to cross the Channel to find the St. James’ Palace winner.
Dont agree its a weak contest, an open one for sure. I think we will be looking at a mid 120’s winner of this years renewal.
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Perhaps but on form to date nothing has run to above 118 on my ratings and Mastercraftsman only achieved that once. The best of the others have run to low 110’s. This time last year New Approach had already run to 123 more than once and the year before the third (who’s name now rather irritatingly escapes me lol) had run to 120. This years race looks dire in 2000 Guineas terms.
It may be that a few improve and we get a decent Guineas after all but at this stage its hard to see it happenning.
Might not be a vintage flat season actually as there seems to be a lack of very good older horses around as well. Paco Boy for example is now rated top miler but last year he was below Henry, Raven’s, New Approach, Zarkava and Goldikova on one mile form .
I hope the middle distance three year olds step up to the plate but thats a discussion for another day.
I expect this to be a 2000gns that throws many more winners from its outcome. 3 possible Derby winners Sea the stars, Gan amrhas and if you think he will stay Rip Van Winkle, Mastercraftsman should get 11/4m,
Finjaan could be a July cup sort, Ouqba and Lord Shanakil look Jersey stakes sorts.Its always good to have a Dark horse in the race and Evasive fits the bill there.Delegator looks a typical miler! Good luck to you all
and may the Best horse win!
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