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Would be willing to chance Arazan again on a sounder surface myself. Didn’t seem to act on the ground at all in the National Stakes against Mastercraftsman after being backed like defeat was out of the question.
John Oxx has some very nice colts to go to war with next year. Arazan, Mourayan, Rayeni and Sea The Stars should pick up a few decent races between them.
Surely the most impressive performance of any 2yo this year was Crowded House in the RP Trophy?
Cormack15………..can you please, please, please remove me very quickly from the Moderators Group, before I delete this pile of early-bird, Newmarket-faced shi*te.
Thank you.
Mastercraftsman won’t win the guineas.
This is a value guineas imo and you should be looking for E/W bet about a potential improver.
Zacinto for me at the prices, of all the 2yos Ive seen this year I think he looks most like a horse for newmarket and although beaten on an unsuitable surface he does look to have bundles of class about him.
Backed Art Connoiseur earlier in the year at a shorter price than he is now, but much will depend on whether the old art connoiseur comes back, he looked smart at ascot but hasnt looked that way since.
Naqoos was very impressive and think he looked like the rough shell of something very smart, cant wait to see him next year but will he come over?
Crowded house was definitely very impressive in the RP Trophy but quite how that form will translate for a guineas run I dont quite know, I think I’ll just wait and see what sort of vibes he generates next year, but will probably just watch and see what happens with him.
My only Breeders Cup bet was a small double on Goldikova at 4’s and Naqoos at 10’s so I have some over the winter interest in this race. Hopefully he gets sent over!
Back on the subject …
I’m sticking with Rip Van Winkle. A good sleep over the winter and he’ll be as right as rain.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
A quick question to the Rip Van Winkle fans. On what piece of form do any of you fancy him as a bet for the Guineas at best-priced 8/1?
I thought Rip Van Winkle ran well in the Dewhurst – if a bit green. He was running on at the finish from a poor draw. He got stuck behind a wall of horses near the business end if the race ( as GG would call it ) and Murtagh wasn’t overly hard on the horse. Aiden O’Brien did say that the colt did not have the perfect preparation for the race and will improve.
Solid form to speak of or not, that is good enough for me.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Fair enough, though eye-catching as it was it wasn’t a run which justifies his price to me by any stretch. I still think he’s a bit of a talking horse. Delegator and Ashram both put up equally taking performances from unfavourable positions in the Dewhurst IMO, certainly making them more attractive betting propositions at the respective prices (33s and 25s).
Naqoos was very impressive and think he looked like the rough shell of something very smart, cant wait to see him next year but will he come over?
I hadn’t even considered that he wouldn’t come over. He’ll come over if he’s good enough. Poulains doesn’t come close in prestige.
I was impressed with him at Longchamp as well. . . putting a bit of my pay packet each month on him. Bonilla gave him a great ride.
The french are often happy to go for their own guineas and give ours a miss. This year Natagora (Pascal Bary) came over but the last I can remember before was Whipper (Robert Collet, who usually considers newmarket for his contenders if he thinks they may be good enough). But most dont, Zarkava and Goldikova didnt, Darjina didnt, American Post, Divine Proportions didnt.
The question with the french hosres is often not whether they are good enough but whether they will come over, hard to know what freddie head will do, he did bring Tamayuz over but not for the guineas. Many french trainers will just stay in france for the poulains/pouliches and wait for the St James Palace/ Coronation Stakes, even though they could probably realistically fit Newmarket in before the Poulains (as per Finsceal Beo).
Time will tell, but I would worry about lumping on as if they decide to go Prix Fontainbleu – Poulains you’ll be gutted as will probably a lot of others. N/Rs are the biggest threat to any Classic bet, see Holy Roman Emperor, Teofilo, Zarkava, Fast Company and Listen are a few big stand outs from the last few years markets. If there is a big factor which leads you to believe that your horse may possibly be a non runner then it is usually worth not weighing in too heavy on that selection. We wont know until later in the year if Naaqoos will be due to turn up, but I expect that there will be that much happening (for punters) with Aintree etc at the time that his price wont change that much if they do decide to run him, so i could be worth sticking what you are planning to back him with to the side and weighing in when there is a more concrete plan in place.
I took a little of 25-1 just after the Champagne, but now I am too reserving a portion of my monthly pay packet on Zacinto at 16-1.
Fast, bred, appreciates the ground, trainer. Ticks all round. I just hope he is wound up and ready for the race!
The good thing about Naaqoos is that although he might be French-trained, he isn’t French-owned. Hamdan al Maktoum will make the decision, and I’m pretty sure what he’ll decide.
Fair enough, though eye-catching as it was it wasn’t a run which justifies his price to me by any stretch. I still think he’s a bit of a talking horse. Delegator and Ashram both put up equally taking performances from unfavourable positions in the Dewhurst IMO, certainly making them more attractive betting propositions at the respective prices (33s and 25s).
I would hold off backing Ashram if I were you as he has joined Godolphin. I’m with MDeering and like Zacinto myself, who was as promising a 2yo I saw all season. Needs decent ground though it would seem.
Naaqoos bounces between 12.5 and 15 on betfair, rather than the 8/1 – 9/1 I think he is with the bookies. I have to put the money on each month, as I am on minimal wages and it stops me going on drinking binges.
Will be using May pay packet to go to Auteuil to see Denman. (Easier to get to Paris than Cheltenham.) Did Mandarin run in the GN, between Cheltenham and Auteuil ?. . . .Should I take the 2/1 now or wait for a better price Ha Ha Ha
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