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Oh well, Weetfromthechaff got down to 4.2, but I didn’t do any laying off, as I only got 100, and didn’t want to give any of it up. [edit: It would go against the spirit of the quest – I only want to lay off money above 100.]
95 lives left.
Okay, I’ve only gotten around to looking at 2 races for tomorrow, but the selection is
Newgate!
1.55 Doncaster.
This will be an in-joke for anyone who read the 3yo+ Maidens and Dosage thread.
My money is already on, as I’m working overtime tomorrow, and will only just get home in time.
Unfortunately there is no headgear or any other gadget.
[edit: There IS method to my madness – last week the going was Soft, this week it is Gd to Sft.]
Slightly squiffy.
I was thinking that if it was slowly run, Newgate could have a chance.
Have just had another bet at 1000.
This time I do have some laying-off in-play bets.
edit: Okay, I’ll do some proper form studying for tomorrow. Its just I couldn’t resist Newgate because I know his history and breeding.
94 lives left.
Okay, the money is already on Bywell Beau, 3.30 Musselburgh. See Big Races Discussion.
I’ll start looking at the other races now, so there might be more than one bet today.
I already know that if I can get the price, I’ll be on Beantown, 2.55 Punchestown today.
I think Beantown would have won after another circuit, but I don’t think the jockey would have been too keen on the idea.
He was having to drive the horse into each fence. What is that all about? Can’t the horse jump for himself?
As he didn’t reach 100, I’m making an executive decision, and not including him as a life. After all, it wouldn’t have counted if he won.
93 lives left.
Haven’t done any studying, but this ought to come to more than 100
straight forecast
3.10 Southwell
Wheres Reiley
Beaux YeuxAnd no, Marble, I didn’t use dosage or anything. This is just for the sake of having a bet.
BOTH Wheres Reiley and Beaux Yeux were non-runners.
Still 93 lives left.
This is a bit risky, but I’ve just done it.
Hobbs Hill – Racing Post Chase.
Don’t know whether it’ll run. Don’t know whether it is fit.
Took 120. 100 left.
Government
runs tomorrow in the Southwell nightcap.
He will be a huge price, at least 50 and at some point during the day exchange punters might get a 100 plus.
In his favour:
a) This is a banded race by any other name and Government is a banded horse punished by the excision of banded races at the sandpit.
b) As a front runner, he may get an easy lead from the one box with only Aquarian Dancer a fully confirmed rabbit.
c) He is a spring horse and the weather is improving. Government likes good, mild weather and it has been an appalling winter.
d) Many runs have been over 8f. Yes, he once scrambled home over that distance but tomorrow’s 7f is his trip.
e) He won this equivalent race two years ago in the first week in March. At 66/1.
f) If you’re going to back a big priced winner, MC Chapman is a man to provide it.
On the downside? He might be gone at the game – a bit of a Clive Dunn out of "Dad’s Army" wanting to get at the Squareheads – but just a bit old for the struggle.
I must confess I back this horse a lot. I get funny looks and plenty of smiles from the bookies at the sandpit. I am convinced (as were many judges until a month ago after an appalling run), that Chappers is setting this one up. It appears that most have given up and the hundred is possible. I’ll back three in the race (see AW Lays and Plays), but this one would give me most pleasure.
Cheers
Thanks Max. I’ll be on.
I was hoping this thread would die a death, as I usually feel too tired to do day-to-day form studying. Am hoping I’ll become obsessed when the Turf season starts.
Gerald, I think this is one of the more interesting threads. There are at least six Big Game Hunters on the site that I know of who think nothing of backing 100+ shots and would never put up a fav even if it was "value" at evens.
Marble will vouch for me that I backed a horse called Amosite in last years Queen Mary at 500+. It finished mid div after missing the break, but I have had many worse bets.
You can win from anywhere at the sandpit except:
a) Too far back. A horse needs to be prominent because of the holding texture of the fibresand composite. It’s a front runners paradise.
b) Stalls 9+ in 5f sprints.However, I’m not keen on wide draws at 6f and 7f because of the centrifuge at the top bend. Others I know consider this an overly cautious approach.
Cheers, Max
Gerald, I think this is one of the more interesting threads. There are at least six Big Game Hunters on the site that I know of who think nothing of backing 100+ shots and would never put up a fav even if it was "value" at evens.
I dont know about the big game hunter bit but I would say the rest of it would sum up how I would bet. I backed The Giant Bolster and Phare Isle in the closing NH Flat race today at stratford and both gave me a good run for my money.
The giant bolster finished 5thof 14, 2.25 lengths down on the 10/3 2nd fav, who took third, and the other was not far away 8th of the 14. Sometimes horses are just overpriced for one reason and another, and every once in a while it’ll be your day and you’ll get a win out of them, but it is always good when you get a good run for your money.
Yesterday I put up a couple in Huntingdon’s 2nd race, half in the hope that the ground was a bit quicker than it turned out to be, it wasnt however and they all weakened 3 out, with a 5th of 9 the best I could do.
Like I said earlier on the thread its not so much a case of trying to find a 100-1 winner, more just a case of betting as you normally would including any 100-1 shots that you think have a chance if all goes well.
Okay, I’ll put £2 on Scholars Lass in the 4.10 , if I can get 40+.
Frontrunner, coming down in trip. Decent enough jockey.
However, I need to emphasise that I know nothing whatsoever about the AW.
Second race back after two layoffs. Might be better next time. Was close at finish last week however.
Good news and bad news Gerald.
The bad news is that Government will probably never win another race and I won’t mention it again.
The good news is that the Scholarly one will. Given a most generous and sympathetic ride today. Looked a really nice type.
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