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So wait, can you explain your breakdown of why you think 9/2 was value and why the horse might go shorter?
Minella Times i presume is based on your form study etc? Santa Barbara is a much harder one to justify form-wise.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I thought I had explained why I think 9-2 is value already Jack, to break it down a bit…
(I) The horse is now shorter.
(ii) Don’t fancy anything else strongly in the race.
(iii) She may well be a cut above the rest in light of AOB’s comments about her and find the necessary improvement, against a field I found was a bit ‘meh’ when I went through it.She could go off shorter if other people agree with (ii) and the first part of (iii), and more money goes down.
Trends from the racing post from last 10 renewals
1) 10/10 ran 3 or more times as a juvenile
2) 10/10 European sire
3) 10/10 top 2 finish in a group or listed race
4) 10/10 won over 7f at 2
5) 9/10 achieved an adjusted RPR of 98
6) 8/10 winning for first time over a mile
7) 8/10 adjusted RPR of 119Price wise put up Alcohol Free and Zaajirah
Indigo Girl goes straight to the race according to Gosden and Donnacha said Shale hasnt grown much over the winter
The issue with this debate is that your both trying to compare value before and after an event. That’s impossible obviously unless we can see into the future.
But if Santa B wins then Mikes going to win money and we won’t. So who has value there? Mike obviously.
Repeat that race 10 times and we might end up with more money than Mike and that’s the ‘value game’ everyone talks about, but in isolation we can’t say a horse winning isn’t value when you win money with it, that’s the definition of value!
Anyway not a great confidence in Shale really, disappointing.
I don’t think it’s as simplistic as that. Horses that are bad value still win races lol Mike will have won the race but not necessarily with a value bet.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!jack has made a fair point there, and I am only speaking for myself when I say this…. the value lies with the odds I obtained for a horse I fancy and how the market shapes up afterwards prior to race time. If Santa Barbara drifts to 7-1 and won for example, and me being on at 9-2, I don’t feel I got the value, but will be happy that she won. However with her being 2-1 in places now, at this moment I think its looking like I have a value bet in my pocket.
The Lincoln run the other day is another example I can give. I backed Eastern World at 5-1 and that horse was 5-2 favourite at the off. I felt I had a value bet due to the support the horse got on the day. The horse was disappointing in the end, but I didn’t think in my mind it was poor value post race, all I did was backed one that lost.
I think Alcohol Free could be very smart, but looks more of a Commonwealth Cup type than a Guineas one to me. Attraction was a similar type, but she was miles ahead of her contemporaties at 2yo, Alcohol Free wasn’t.
Its even messier than usual this race. The market is seemingly ignoring the entire juvenile pattern campaign and a huge percentage of the market is taken by a 1m 2yo maiden winner. Hard to make sense of.
Looks like a no bet at the moment, but Pretty Gorgeous would be pretty solid e/w but for connections obvious links to ‘Listen and The Lads’ and the rest of the Cartel.
BUY THE SUN
TTC, surely Shale at x2 or even slightly more in places on likely better ground is even more solid a bet? Only issue is Donnacha hasn’t confirmed for certain she will come here.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I tend to remember people being similar dismissive of Australia’s chances in the 2000 guineas a few back. A lot of folks couldn’t understand why he had been backed for the race given he was by a derby winner out of an oaks winner and there was no way he would have the speed etc. Well if Joseph had stayed stands-rail instead of tracking over he would of won that race and the vibes would of been correct. Im sure the vibes for Santa B are well placed and she will run a good race
Depends on the definition of value though Jack! There isn’t one single specified definition of value that everyone works off, it’s all subjective to the individual.
Anyway, race wise 10/20 winners of it raced in a trial so there’s a lot to play out here yet I’d say. It’s different to the 2000 Guineas where they usually go straight in.
Agree with you on Alcohol Free TTC, she won’t stay
Just watched Santa Barbara win her Maiden at the Curragh and there is no doubt she is very smart, when Heffernan said go she flew home.
No worries about the high head carriage that’s a Montjeu thing and she is very much like her Grandsire with that fast turn of foot.
Still looking like she had a lot of filling out to do last September but going by AOB’s glowing report she has fulfilled that duty.
I think she will handle the uphill finish at Newmarket her action is not to high and she grabs the ground.
I find myself not wanting to like her but can’t help myself.
She is a big player.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Hardly a fair form comparison Newyork1. Australia had won a Group 3 by 6 lengths as a juvenile, beating Free Eagle who himself had absolutely hacked up in a Maiden. The 2nd through to 9th in Santa Barbaras Maiden win, remain Maidens.
Jack – I like the course winning form of Josephs, and think she may have improved past Shale in the Mile. As you say, its impossible to take a position until the cartel decide what is going where. Its even worse than it used to be now we’ve got a couple of Listen Juniors with top bloodstock who will tow the party line.
BUY THE SUN
No specific definition, but i think it’s well known that within betting the method of finding value is before the event, not afterwards.
I’ll standby what i’ve said, not all horses that win are value just because they win lol.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Some of this is gold to be fair. That horse has won – therefore it was great value.
BUY THE SUN
There is a definition of value – Betting an outcome at a price which is larger than it will be. It’s that simple. In the round the Betfair SP is very accurate and if you continually beat that over a good sample size (which takes variance out of play) you will win money. No question, it’s how odds work.
If you want to find the winner you’ll more likely than not back the favourite. That’s the definition of a mug punter who doesn’t understand value. I have several friends who are like this
Doesn’t mean favourites can’t be value, but there will be more Favs that are bad value than good to ensure over the long run you lose.It’s why the coin flip analogy is accurate as it’s exactly the same thing but with animals running round a field or footballers trying to get a ball in the net. 5/4 about a coin flip is value, every single time. You might lose the first 20 times, but over 1000 flips say you should be ahead at those odds.
Santa Barbara is a filly who is so hard to quantity that in reality, nobody apart from possibly Aidan and some work riders will know if she is the next Ballydoyle rocket or more of an 8/1 chance.
I couldn’t say one way or the other but AOB doesn’t have any need to hype a filly up like he does with potential stallions. As long as she wins decent black-type she’s guaranteed a spot at Coolmore being serviced by Wooton Bassett.
Regarding her breeding two of her dams progeny have won group 1s at a mile and Iridessa didnt get 12F so I can’t have her looking slow. Her maiden over a mile she showed a proper turn of foot aswell.
I reckon it’s to be taken on a case by case process, with quite often a fair bit of hindsight factored in as well.
Santa Barbara for this right now has no value whatsoever to my eye. I believe the last I looked she was around 5/2 and the gamble’s showing no signs of slowing, but for arguments sake let’s say she goes off her current price and wins as she likes. Let’s then say she wins every race for the remainder of the season, never again showing above even money. Let’s say in that time she wins the Oaks and maybe even the Arc.
Hindsight would tell you 5/2 was a cracking price then eh.
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