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Nurture – The main focus in this race in recent weeks seems to have been on the eclipse of French filly Special Duty at Maisons-Lafitte on her seasonal debut. With most of the value having gone at the head of the market and some pretty major doubts surounding the leading contenders – Special Duty (will she stay?), Music Show (stamina?), Seta (ground?), Rumoush (trip too short?) etc. and the recent gamble on Pollenator has led me towards the second of trainer Ralph Beckett’s two runners. Although stable jockey Jim Crowley rejects her there are still plenty of reasons to get involved with this potentially decent filly. She contested the Montrose Fillies Stakes over Sunday’s course and distance last October in which she was beaten a head by Henry Cecil’s Timepiece (unlucky in running when beaten by Rumoush in the Fielden Stakes on her return) with Clarietta 4 1/2 lengths back in third. Clarietta had previously been beaten 4 1/4 lengths by fellow Guineas rival Pollenator (currently 8/1) whilst the fourth placed Marie De Medici has had two starts thus far this season – most notably when finishing third in the previously mentioned Fielden Stakes to Rumoush (7/1 for this) and there’s no reason why Nurture should be 8-10 times bigger than the two who on certain lines of form you could say that she holds. Nurture is used to big fields having previously raced against the colts in a sales race at The Curragh – in which she finished third of the nineteen runners beaten just a quarter of a length. She seems to have sneaked under the radar in this and providing she’s trained on for her new trainer she is of definite each-way interest.
Quick copy and paste from a post i made on another forum – 50/1 looks very big to me.
Anyone live in the area? Is it p***ing down?
It started bucketing down around 7.45pm near to the M25. Bucketing.
A lot will depend on what the weather does.
Like the colts classic yesterday, there doesn’t appear to be any natural pace in the race. Misheer and Sent From Heaven have forced the pace in previous contests, but the former is far from certain to stay and the latter has a tendency to take a keen hold, so the pace set may depend entirely on what mood she’s in.
Special Duty
is the class act in the field and sets the standard based on her Cheveley Park romp from Misheer (Cherry Hinton) , Lady Of The Desert (Princess Margaret / Lowther) and Puff, who landed the Fred Darling on her return to action.
She was given a soft lead that day, but connections feel she may be better ‘covered up’ and the large field assembled for tomorrows contest will surely be in her favour. Her dam is related to plenty of high-class 8 – 10F individuals and she has every chance of seeing out the trip.
I was very taken by
Music Show
in the Nell Gwyn. She responds well to pressure and really sticks her neck out. Her two group race victories suggest she will appreciate the extra furlong and Mick Channon is very bullish about her chances. Laheen, Speciosa and Finsceal Beo have all gone on to win this race in the last ten years after landing the Rockfel as a juvenile. She would prefer the rain to stay away.
Lady Darshaan
is an attractive choice to reach the frame at bigger odds. She is a half-sister to sprinter, Total Gallery, but stayed on well when an unlucky second in the Fillies Mile after acquitting herself well over an inadequate 6F in the Lowther behind Misheer. Her sires progeny train-on well and she can reach a place if the rain stays away.
Rumoush
was most impressive in winning the Fielden on her seasonal debut. My only concern is that the second holds an entry in the King Edward, whilst the third is entered for the Epsom Oaks and the Ribblesdale – she has yet to beat anything with top form over a mile. However she is well related and has the size of her half-sister, Ghanaati, who won this last year. She may eventually take more after her half-brother, Mawatheeq, who is a top class middle distance performer. A filly with a nice action, she wouldn’t want too much rain.
There has been a lot of support for
Pipette
in recent weeks and she looks like a filly with a really bright future. Well bred, she quickened away from two decent sorts to win on her reappearance. Andrew Balding has described her as ‘bone idle’ and one look at her efforts certainly vindicate that opinion. She doesn’t respond to pressure immediately, but really flies at the business end of a race and her ears were flicking back and forth during the latter stages of her previous two contests. She clearly has plenty more to give and will stay further. She has the potential to run a huge race if the rain comes.
Seta
had no excuses when beaten in the May Hill behind Pollenator and subsequent Group 1 winner, Hibaayeb. She is the sort to improve this year and can gain revenge on her Doncaster conquerors on an easier surface. The rain is a must for her to show her best and Kieren Fallon has voiced concerns over the possibility of quick ground.
Devoted to You
was a consistent juvenile and showed up well on her reappearance against older horses. She would relish every drop of rain and Aiden O’Brien’s sole representative is an alternative ew selection if the heavens open.
If the ground remains on the quick side, then I fancy
Special Duty
to stamp her authority on the contest at the expense of Music Show, with Lady Darshaan as an ew alternative. If the ground softens considerably then
Seta
will take some beating, with Pipette and Devoted To You sure to appreciate every drop of rain.
I will wait until tomorrow aftermoon before making a final decision.
So much will depend on the weather.
Anyone live in the area? Is it p***ing down?
It started bucketing down around 7.45pm near to the M25. Bucketing.
Here in Hertfordshire it’s been bucketing too but according to my guesswork reading of the bbc weather map
http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209
..it looks as if the rain has been lashing just short of the Rowley Mile this evening.
We’ll know tomorrow but I’m not in search of mudlarks just yet.
I’ve backed Lady Darshaan Each Way with Skybet who are playing four places.
Lady Darshaan has a nice pedigree (Half sister to Total Gallery) and some useful form in the book from last season so willing to take a chance at 25-1 in what looks another open race.
Agreed, my selection also, the rain will also play benefit to her.
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Seta should be 16s on form. But that doesn’t count for much this time of year with all the hype bollox. Does anyon e really give a monkey’s what Fallon thinks?
Not really. He said rip van winkle would win the guineas and fame and glory would win the derby. He was wrong then and i think he’s wrong now. He’s just keeping luca cumani sweet.
Blue maiden each way is the value bet.
LOL – RVW turns out to be top class and F&G nearly catches the superstar, not far off was he
Pretty sure Cumani knows what he has on his hands 
Seta could be a bit special but also backed Pipette @ 25/1; the rain will suit and she has the "quickened" comment that Makfi had also.The rain is coming down too!
My comment was a bit unfair.I’m not gonna lie, i don’t like fellon. I don’t avoid his rides (probably won me a fair whack as it goes) or criticize him any more than others, for obvious reasons i just don’t like him.
Backed nurture the other night at 40-1 Irish Stamp. Have also put some of my winnings on Blue Maiden 20-1 and Sent From Heaven at 40-1. Theres something i like about all 3 but aqree blue maiden looks the value bet in the race. Hard 2 see her not involved in the finish with a decent ride. Barry Hills brought 2 daughters of giants causeway here and they finished 2nd and 1st with solid support on the day. Thus his daughter of footstepsinthesand is interesting at such a big price.
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My advice is get a pen preferably a magic marker and put a big heavy line through Seta’s name so you can’t see it.
She got her backside well and truly felt when tackling decent company for the first time and her only response was to bounce up and down on the same spot.
She’s a looker and no doubt she bullies the boys at home but why on earth she’s sharing favouritism with a good filly like Special Duty is beyond me.
I was very impressed by the way Rumoosh travelled in her latest race. She was very relaxed and others seemed to be taking 2 strides to her one for the first 4 furlongs. It was kind of disapointing though when she quicked she looked to have her limits and never put as much ground between herself and the rest as I thought she should.
I’m not sure if she just doesn’t have that zoomph in her or she was badly in need of the run but I do think she’ll be in there fighting at the death.
Mick Channon’s yard could be in better form which suggests to me Music Show who won recently may just be a bit special…she won that day despite some early argy-bargy and has a very useful turn of foot.
1.Musc Show
2.Rumoosh
3. Special DutyWhats happened at newmarket on the weather front. It was really quick y’day but 2day it says gd/ gd-sft. Has there been a monsoon? I remember this happened between guineas days in 2006, when we saw gorgeous george on top of the ground on the saturday and speciosa running in a bog on the sunday. Could be a hard days picking if so. But where pivotals seem to be popular this year with the prospect of cut it was a danehill dancer that won in 2006 and aobs could be overpriced if there is plenty of cut and a decent pace. For now though i’ll hold off until after the first race and stick by the 3 i have.
It’s been raining all night/morning since about 11pm in London and my friend over in Cambridgeshire says it’s the same there. Torrential downpour.
Perfect ground for Sariska, ironic that she’s now picked up a little injury and wont be running today
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Following the chinning of Dick Turpin yesterday – I thought he had it a little over a furlong out and whilst laying St Nicholas Abbey for a place proved lucrative I’d certainly have preferred to see Dick Turpin win – I have backed both
Pipette
(20/1) and
Blue Maiden
(20/1) for this afternoon.
I’m not sure the latter is quite up to winning a race of this nature, especially as she was receiving weight from Music Show last time, but she stayed on well on that occasion and has the right man on board to come from behind. Pipette looks to have plenty of class, will have come on immensely for a comfortable success at Kempton (Bella Swan ran well behind a highly regarded fuilly of Henry Cecil’s at Ascot during the week) and won’t mind the softened ground.
I might venture a reverse forecast, just for a little added interest.
How soft is the ground? As Pipette is by Pivotal out of a Saddlers Welles mare I would imagine she was born with webbed feet. I can’t see any stand out horses; so many of them to have entries for 12f races later in the year that I feel that trainers just throw fillies at any race possible in the hope of getting a bit of black type, but I’m new to this flat racing lark and still trying to make sense of it. Not sure why Henry Cecil is running quite such a no hoper [not sure that he tends to do that] but it really does look just that. Also not sure why Blue Maiden is preferred as an ew bet over the horse that beat her..is it the value aspect? Nurture who was mentioned previously looks like a very game, tough filly. As a total cheat I may have a small bet on Lady Darshan who was recommended to me by someone last week, but I haven’t looked at the prices yet. [one thing I am certain about is that I wouldn’t like to commentate on a race with Hibaayeb and the one with a name thats an anagram of it….]
Following on from my initial post last night, with the official going now good, good to soft in places and the propspect of more to come (although not significant), I believe this will suit
Seta
and have chosen her over Special Duty.
I was reluctant to abandon the french filly after supporting her to land the Cheveley Park, but, head over heart, I think Cumani’s filly will take all the beating.
Pipette will also benefit from the rain and she has plenty more to give, whilst Devoted To You is too big for a tough, consistent Aiden O’Brien filly.
Rumoosh moves well, but this rain could be to her advanatage. Just the right amount has fallen to bring her stamina into play and slow the speedier types down, without affecting her action.
Music Show would prefer quicker conditions and, to quote Mick Channon "She got stuck in the mud at Ayr. That’s not her ground."
Seta had been the apple of Kieren Fallon’s eye before she even set foot on a racecourse and the ground has certainly come in her favour, at the detriment of others, and all the vibes are positive.
Devoted To You
is sure to run her race and there’s more to come from
Pipette
. Rumoosh the one to watch when tackling further.
Ive already went on blue maiden, but reckon its goin nowhere if its not gd-fm. Nurture still has a fair enough chance if theres cut. Sent from heaven may still have a reasonable chance also but i wouldnt be confident with either. The 2 best priced look 2 be Devoted to you (16s ish) and Habaayib. Ha instead of hi. At 40-1 its probably the best priced with this sort of cut for 1mile. Bolgers wont mind the cut either and he can rustle up a big priced classic winner when he wants. Theres plenty of value if this rain has soaked in but think its worth seeing the first race b4 writing off any quicker ground bets.
I see the reasoning behind Blue Maiden; finished very fast last time having met with interference early on. Devoted to You..my notes from last year say ‘Danehill Dancers if softer than good’. Do they need a sire who’s a miler and possibly speed on the damside? A lot of these have got stayers on the damside. Nurture looks like a real battler. Very rushed as going out soon; think I’ll go with Devoted to You and Nurture [with a sentimental bet on Henrys horse thrown in]. Good luck everybody.
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