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Oh Gossamer!! What a gorgeous little girl she was!!
Gerald Leigh’s colours hold good memories for me!!
Barathea, Markofdistinction and Gossamer to name but a few.
Gossamer was soooooooooooo good on soft ground!!Sorry slipped into memory mode
Anyone have any idea why you can’t have Rumoush as a selection in your Tote Ten to Follow?
Presumably because they picked the 10 to Follow list several weeks ago, and Rumoush only emerged on the scene after winning the Fielden.
Big Buck’s, For Your Information:-
thedoctor 22 Apr 08:17
No lengthy explanations this year. No qualifiers last year, but 2010 is a far more conventional renewal, and the following are qualifiers:Special Duty
Seta
Joanna – likely NR
Atasari
You’ll Be Mine – but needs a top-3 finish in a trial beforehandGood luck !
Bedford Lodge Mob 22 Apr 08:23
Nice to see you back Doc.TD_Gunner 22 Apr 09:53
thedoctor knows.Dark Destroyer 22 Apr 11:03
Good luck Doc.unclepuncle 22 Apr 12:52
Well with the bottom 3 in your list all looking like non runners that means you think the winner will be the favourite or likely 2nd favourite – what an amazing system
bestmate 22 Apr 14:52
good to see you doc & thanks for postingjamesp 22 Apr 15:44
I wouldn’t rule out Atasari, despite the fact she ran poorly in the Nell Gwyn (needed the race). Don’t know whether she’s an intended runner, though. She’s a silly price at around 150+jair1970 22 Apr 22:28
Quality stuff
Bit more debate neede methinks?Charlton2005 22 Apr 22:29
Sorry Doc but got to agree with Uncle here.liberator of the oppressed 23 Apr 06:19
Morning Doc.thedoctor 23 Apr 10:35
Personally, as an antepost player, I think there is considerable value to be had in the price of Atasari on here, and to some extent YBM, although the latter will need a trial, and I’m unsure whether there is a further 1000G trial at Leopardstown this year (they always used to have two trials). I took the 200+ on Joanna on here, so was somewhat disappointed following JCR’s comments after the Prix Imprudence! I do prefer Seta to the favourite, and although she has had what I call an ‘unexposed’ preparation, it is the right thing to do to take her directly to the Guineas without a prep.ben10 23 Apr 10:38
You can get 20/1 Joanna, 40/1 YBM and 66/1 Atasari all nrnb with Stan James.thedoctor 23 Apr 10:42
All of those prices hold ew appeal for me, but I suspect none of them will run, and I’ll be playing the SD/Seta exacta on the day.thedoctor 23 Apr 10:47
Interestingly, another qualifier (who was withdrawn from the entries for the 1000G after running in the UAE Guineas & Oaks) runs today, and looks very interesting against the colts – Bikini Babe. I had an interest in this antepost, but looks like they’re aiming for the Oaks, which I feel is the wrong decision, although I hadn’t expected them to send her to Dubai. The 10 on here for the Sandown Classic trial will surely go in a flash – her Oaks conqueror, Raihana, was only narrowly beaten in the UAE Derby, a much hotter contest than today.ben10 23 Apr 10:48
Money back then so nothing to lose, exacta will be tough to get up but can see why you’d think they’re the two. My 3 atm would be Special Duty, Rumoush and Music Show, in that order.jair1970 23 Apr 11:03
jeez doc, they’d have to cram it in a bit quick if they want to run another Leopardstown 100G trial!thedoctor 23 Apr 11:06
Rumoush is interesting, particularly after beating the colts in the Fielden, but would have wanted her to show better form as a 2yo, although Ghanaati’s unusual route last year may be a sign of things to come. My system won’t allow Music Show – foaling dates are wrong, but I won’t attempt to explain that ben!thedoctor 23 Apr 11:16
Yes jair1970, the ‘Leopardstown’ (formerly Dimitrova) is the English trial, and the ‘Derrinstown Stud’ the Irish trial – the latter is run just after the English 1000 Guineas I believe, so it looks like YBM won’t qualify, although over the years I’ve noticed that on occasions they seem to find a ‘race’ when a good one of O’Brien’s needs a prep!thedoctor 26 Apr 14:32
Hello everyone. Interesting to see that Atasari & You’ll Be Mine stand their ground at the 5 day stage, and nice to see JCR standing by his post-race comments regarding Joanna (now withdrawn). I still feel that Atasari & YBM are excellent antepost value.Richie-O 26 Apr 14:48
Bolger had Atasari in his ten to follow in Sundays RP.ben10 26 Apr 14:51
66/1 nrnb nowben10 26 Apr 14:51
(not for me though, good luck)Wedontneednostinkinbadges 26 Apr 19:34
doctor freemantle injured…………………19.34Stormbird 26 Apr 21:21
Seta is an unusual one Doc , as she is a May filly, cannot remember the last filly born in May to win the 1000Guineas ?ben10 26 Apr 21:25
Enfield Spark
Speciosa was the closest one to May, born only 3 days earlier that Setapush 26 Apr 21:33
Enfield Spark , what bloody year was that ?ben10 26 Apr 21:34
Sorry Enstone, and that was June…I’ll get my coatpush 26 Apr 21:35
What year ?ben10 26 Apr 21:45
1978Stormbird 26 Apr 21:52
We must be due another one born in May by now .Sacred Kingdom 26 Apr 22:13
Speciosa April 28th, Wince April 26th. Both very poor renewals as well.bestmate 26 Apr 22:35
doc your comments please to strombird’s questionthedoctor 26 Apr 23:35
StormbirdI’ve discussed the issue of late-April & may fillies extensively on previous threads (incidentally, Enstone Spark was foaled 6Jun I believe). There are two ways that such fillies can win:
a) Traditional preparation – this involves displaying precocity as a 2yo by winning at 6f+ within 13 weeks of the foaling date, then recording a top-3 finish in both a 2yo & 3yo trial (which will naturally involve confirming the precocity as a 3yo).
b) Unexposed preparation – this requires a win fto as a 2yo at 14-21 weeks after foaling date, then a break of at least 7 weeks before recording a top-2 finish over 8f at Group-level. The filly can then go straight to the Guineas without a prep.Seta fits the unexposed profile, by virtue that he was a beaten favourite in his 2yo trial (May Hill). Unexposed winners are much rarer than traditional types – other examples have been Las Meninas (1Apr – who was also precocious), Ameerat (4Apr) & Kazzia (12Apr). Shadayid (10Apr) & Speciosa (28Apr) are examples of a traditional types, who both also displayed precocity.
I understand the idea of allowing ‘beaten favourites’ isn’t acceptable to a lot of so-called system analysts, but there have been several other recent examples, all with traditional preps:
Sleepytime – 4th (beaten fav) in Fred Darling
Cape Verdi – 4th (beaten fav) in Cheveley Park
Wince – 7th (beaten fav) in Rockfel
Lahan – 4th (beaten fav) in Fred DarlingThis also explains why I also like Atasari so much, as I believe she can theoretically be forgiven her flop in the Nell Gwyn, and given that Music Show triumphed, her 2yo Rockfel form was franked. Clearly something was amiss with Atasari, and although she has yet to be confirmed a runner she has all the necessary requirements of a traditional winner. What makes her particularly attractive, is that she displayed precocity as a 2yo, a feat achieved by 4 of the last 5 traditional winners. Special Duty did not display precocity as a 2yo, which I believe explains why she was beaten in the Prix Imprudence by Joanna, who had displayed precocity.
Is that any clearer ?
thedoctor 26 Apr 23:37
By the way, for Seta read she not he – I am aware she is a filly!Fair play Albrookes you called the defection of Tabassum, what chance do you think Special Duty has, do you think she is a worthy favourite or one that should be backed against.
I’d be keen to take her on, Pickup. I think if Seta has filled out over the winter(Cumani says she has), then she is the most likely to beat her. I worry a bit about her action down and up the hill but they’ve given her a racecourse gallop which should help. A lot of the others are exposed as not being of Group 1 level (admittedly this isnt an outstanding renewal)…so although Special Duty only has a few to beat realistically, I think Seta has the potential to be a class above these. Should she not fire I can see Pollenator staying on providing she doesn’t boil over beforehand.
Fallon is clearly of the opinion she’s
potentially
the classiest in there. Not sure how much, but there is rain about too.
Gerald – the less you post about that guessing [expletive] the better I think
If there’s rain, don’t forget Pipette. I think she’ll be ok on good but nothing firmer -so the rain will be welcomed by A Balding. She only ever does enough so she could well be better than people think (25-1)…although she’d need to be, of course. Had a bit on her for the Oaks so I’d expect her to get at least 10f with ease, so could well be staying on when some of the 7f horses aren’t.
Seta should be 16s on form. But that doesn’t count for much this time of year with all the hype bollox. Does anyon e really give a monkey’s what Fallon thinks?
Has there every been a worse value bet than 5/1 Seta for this?
Apart from 6/4 SNA for the 2000 that is. . . .
So long as a few drops of rain fall, she’s by far the likeliest winner of the race for me.
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Does anyon e really give a monkey’s what Fallon thinks?
Aidan O’Brien, Luca Cumani, Sir Michael Stoute – but what would they know?
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So hard to get excited about this given the quality of the colts division. Open race for mine with a long list of possible winners. I do think the draw has finished Special Duty as a winning chance though.
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Seta should be 16s on form. But that doesn’t count for much this time of year with all the hype bollox. Does anyon e really give a monkey’s what Fallon thinks?
Not really. He said rip van winkle would win the guineas and fame and glory would win the derby. He was wrong then and i think he’s wrong now. He’s just keeping luca cumani sweet.
Blue maiden each way is the value bet.
Seta should be 16s on form. But that doesn’t count for much this time of year with all the hype bollox. Does anyon e really give a monkey’s what Fallon thinks?
Not really. He said rip van winkle would win the guineas and fame and glory would win the derby. He was wrong then and i think he’s wrong now. He’s just keeping luca cumani sweet.
Blue maiden each way is the value bet.
LOL – RVW turns out to be top class and F&G nearly catches the superstar, not far off was he
Pretty sure Cumani knows what he has on his hands Seta could be a bit special but also backed Pipette @ 25/1; the rain will suit and she has the "quickened" comment that Makfi had also.I’ve backed Lady Darshaan Each Way with Skybet who are playing four places.
Lady Darshaan has a nice pedigree (Half sister to Total Gallery) and some useful form in the book from last season so willing to take a chance at 25-1 in what looks another open race.
I’ve always been a Misheer fan, although her draw doesn’t look too good. As soon as she exited the stalls the last day it was obvious she was going to fade in the finish. She was subject to a positive bulletin in the RP during the week and 33/1 is too big imo.
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