CAS, I just watched it again, thinking my eyes must be deceiving me after checking the in-race comments to see him marked with not fluents at the 3rd and 5th (where I initially thought he wasn’t quite foot perfect) Watching again, all I see is a horse very cleverly putting himself right just before take off at 3rd and 5th. He does not touch a twig at either. His first error is 5 out and at each subsequent fence that is in clear view he noticeably twists his back end mid air – I assume he was also doing this at the fences where there are no close up. It takes a fair bit of energy to twist like that, yet he does it even at the last when he is obviously knackered, signifying that he was still trying to avoid the worst of the pain.
In my experience, horses who have never done that before don’t suddenly start doing it mid race: something went wrong with him, very probably at the 8th. Townend must have felt that back end swing. Whether it was a mucscle or a spinal twinge, I don’t know, and maybe they won’t find anything once back in the yard. I’ve been watching NH racing now for almost 60 years. I’d be confident the horse went wrong. I am more than happy to hear different opinions, but I trust my very old eyes!