"Why Bookmakers Limit Accounts" blog…

[chalk jockey]

Bookmakers have evolved into only wanting to take bets from mugs.
If you buy a form book and are selective and have any kind of money management you are not the kind of customer head office wants.
Where this leaves racing in years to come I don’t know,as betting on horses should be enjoyable.
Log on a big bookmakers site attempt to put on a £1 lucky 15,get told I can have it for 14p,I have 30 seconds to decide and the clocks ticking.I would not know how to arb a lucky 15,its the same with singles ask for £20 ew you can have £6.20 (not a bad ew race).
Unless this is sorted out more young people will get there enjoyment elsewhere.

If you go to back a certainty always buy a return ticket.

[Drone]

If that 16.7% advantage is anywhere near accurate, any fairly diligent punter should be able to make a profit.

I wouldn’t lay BOG to money.

Blimey, neither would I, 16% advantage or not

Thanks for pointing me in the direction of BOG because prior to yesterday I had next to no knowledge of it

I couldn’t quite believe that bookmakers offer universal BOG, hence my reference to naiivety; but it does appear to be true and strikes me as being quite obviously too good to be true, or perhaps a better description would be too generous to be laid to half-decent money from half-decent punters

A seductive promotion designed to pull in the fun fivers from fun punters. Or even a loss-leader designed to get the funters through the doors and onto the FOBTs and Virtuals

Is this how racing is now regarded by bookmakers?

If you’d care to substitute fun with the ugly pejorative mug, please do so as I’m sure this is the term bookmakers use when referring to the customers they value

I fear you will be pissing into a westerly gale should you give BOG a bash, but the best advice is probably suck it and see: if wet trousers launder them with Big Blue or Puny Purple

Good luck and if you’d care to report how you get on (or not get on ) that would be most interesting

[Drone]

Another problem I personally have with late betting is – it seems the market knows more about the horses by off time. ie Although my sig. is "Value Is Everything", I rarely have a main bet in the final 5 mins on or off course. Seems by off time betting exchanges know roughly the horses unlikely to "run to form" and that’s duplicated in both on and off-course markets. So even if (in my book) it has gone out to a tremendous "value" price judged by my form study, markets suggest it probably won’t show that form. I usually limit such bets to savers only. .

In my opinion – though it has been debated at length by those who understand such things – the advent of Exchanges and their ‘transparency’ has shifted the horse-betting markets from what in Economic jargon is called ‘weak-form efficient’ towards ‘strong-form efficient’

The former allows the astute an edge e.g five staked returns six, long-term whilst the latter allows no edge to layer or player e.g five staked returns five, long-term

You appear to still be weakly-efficient Gingersix

[betlarge]

Can anyone make a profit betting SP nowadays though Mike? Seems as though SP’s are even worse value than they used to be. Even more shortening up in the last five minutes before the off. May be it is just because we’re spoilt with exceptional value at Early Odds and betting exchanges these days. Anyone know how today’s average SP over-round compares to 25 years ago?

Another problem I personally have with late betting is – it seems the market knows more about the horses by off time. ie Although my sig. is "Value Is Everything", I rarely have a main bet in the final 5 mins on or off course. Seems by off time betting exchanges know roughly the horses unlikely to "run to form" and that’s duplicated in both on and off-course markets. So even if (in my book) it has gone out to a tremendous "value" price judged by my form study, markets suggest it probably won’t show that form. I usually limit such bets to savers only.

Conversely, if something is "out of form" I obviously try to allow for it in my original estimation of its chance. But if there is a big market move throughout the day for the horse; then that market move in itself is an indication the horse may well be capable of a return to form. Therefore, got to admit it probably has a bigger chance than I’ve originally given it credit for.

Rarely have a big bet on course these days. Paddock experts may still be able to make good money at the races, but form experts are (imo) far better off concentrating on Early markets.

I think one can finish in front at BFSP.

In 2009, the majority of my bets were at BFSP which showed a 9% advantage over SP at a rough average price of 9-2. I intend to go down the same route again as BFSP gives me the convenience of getting on unhindered but I do wonder if that kind of advantage over SP is still the same.

I like playing late into the market and I did so wherever possible. If my selection’s price collapses to something that looks rank bad value I will pull my bet, but I rarely do if the price drifts. This is probably the wrong way round as the market has been driven down to supposed ‘perfection’ nowadays. However, let’s be honest, you can either beat it or you can’t and if I can’t I’ll stop.

Mike

[betlarge]

I’ve copied this from Hill’s site but the wording applies to all other BOG bookmakers

William Hill are offering Best Odds Guaranteed on all their Daily

UK & Irish Greyhound

and Horse Racing. If the starting price ends up higher than the odds you take they will pay you the bigger price.

…and I’d really love to lay those!!!

Mike

[betlarge]

Thanks for pointing me in the direction of BOG because prior to yesterday I had next to no knowledge of it

Ha. A life unfulfilled. Those in the know have been on the BOG for a couple of years now.

Please don’t confuse this with BOGOF which simply results in you having even more foie gras/Gregg’s pies* (delete as appropriate) in your freezer than currently.

Mike

[betlarge]

Good luck and if you’d care to report how you get on (or not get on ) that would be most interesting

Oh yeah, that’ll be fun. I believe Gerald Kaufman referred to Labour’s uber-socialist 1983 manifesto as "The longest suicide note in history" and I presume you’re after the same. There’s nothing like the schadenfreude of watching some deluded fantasist punter crash-and-burn so it would be cruel not to keep you informed.

Anyway, whatever happened to Gerald Kaufman eh? Mind, whatever happened to socialism?

Mike

[tbracing]

Mike, Betfair does offer fixed odds now and offers BOG. I have not explored it much for use but they champion about no restrictions and always getting on etc. Suppose they are best placed to manage liabilities with the exchange to hand.

Have you explored price difference between BFSP and say 5-3 mins before the off or something of that nature? With software these days you can time your bets to enter the market, I don’t have the data I’m afraid but suspect there is a member here who would.

[betlarge]

Mike, Betfair does offer fixed odds now and offers BOG. I have not explored it much for use but they champion about no restrictions and always getting on etc. Suppose they are best placed to manage liabilities with the exchange to hand.

Have you explored price difference between BFSP and say 5-3 mins before the off or something of that nature? With software these days you can time your bets to enter the market, I don’t have the data I’m afraid but suspect there is a member here who would.

Thanks Tb. I knew they offered fixed odds but didn’t realise they were BOG. Will definitely try to root out some analysis although I’d be surprised if they offer any significant advantage over BFSP. (My impression of their fixed odds were that they were at the lower end of bookmakers’ prices – but that’s just an impression).

Have no idea about the price differences shortly before the off – be interesting to hear from anyone who does??

Mike

[Gingertipster]

Would not say you’ve got it "the wrong way round" Mike. Certainly don’t back anything shortened in to a poor price. Also would not worry if a horse goes out one or two points. However, I’d be wary of having a big bet on something that has gone for a walk in the market to what seems tremendous value. The old "someone somewhere knows something".

BFSP may well be a far better way to go than industry SP. Can see you’d need to leave it fairly late to know roughly what price you’re taking. However…

Don’t you find the value has gone leaving it late Mike?
If not, I’ll have to take a look at BFSP. May be the "value" bets in the morning are different to the value bets in the afternoon. But I’ve concentrated on Early Odds previously, because there are so many good form students around. If seeing what I believe to be good value in the morning/night before, if I wait until the afternoon I know (in all probability) some other good form judges are going to identify and take all the value. Leaving me with little or nothing.

Must admit haven’t checked out what BFSP is like. More and more of my day of race betting is done on betfair, but it is still usually in the morning. Although over-rounds are better nearer the off, odds are also nearer to what I’d expect.

It might be the fact I am a Timeform student. Fellow Timeformers working their value selection out the same, so value disappears by the afternoon. Do you find the best value is found in the morning or afternoon Drone?

Value Is Everything

[Anonymous]

Ging been looking at the BF prices for a month or so now and like you say the real value is normally gone by 9 in the morning, however quite often the favourites will drift back out around midday (say from 5/4 to 7/4) before being backed down again an hour before the off.

The SP on Betfair is better than the bookies around 90% of the time, maybe even more.

This is no official study though, just small trends I’ve noticed.

[betlarge]

Don’t you find the value has gone leaving it late Mike?
If not, I’ll have to take a look at BFSP. May be the "value" bets in the morning are different to the value bets in the afternoon. But I’ve concentrated on Early Odds previously, because there are so many good form students around. If seeing what I believe to be good value in the morning/night before, if I wait until the afternoon I know (in all probability) some other good form judges are going to identify and take all the value. Leaving me with little or nothing.

Must admit haven’t checked out what BFSP is like. More and more of my day of race betting is done on betfair, but it is still usually in the morning. Although over-rounds are better nearer the off, odds are also nearer to what I’d expect.

I don’t really know to be honest. The BFSP thing was just because it was very convenient for the life I was then leading, it was sustainable in terms of getting on and it was doing better than SP (I’ve just looked up my figures and I actually got a 10.6% advantage over SP at an average industry SP of 4.25/1). By the way, I did make a 7.1% profit even at SP, but what worked four years ago may not work in today’s market.

It wasn’t some hugely well-planned operation, it just developed because it was working. I may have royally screwed myself by not taking early prices etc but that was just the way it was.

Mike

[Drone]

It might be the fact I am a Timeform student. Fellow Timeformers working their value selection out the same, so value disappears by the afternoon.

I don’t agree with the premise all Timeformers arrive at the same selections; if they all just concentrate on the race card ratings then maybe yes, but I for one – and you I suspect – make little more than a cursory note of them as a basis from which to build my own ‘handicap’ from form study and personal honed angles into a horse/race together with assorted nebulous intangibles: all of that is very much in the little grey cells of the beholder

Do you find the best value is found in the morning or afternoon Drone?

If it was as simple a matter as morning good/bad afternoon bad/good my and I’m sure other punters’ lives would be rendered equally simple, or simpler

I’ve spent eons of time over the last 35 years trying to fathom and navigate to the bottom of the betting oceanic trench but have long-since reached the conclusion that it’s opaque and its turbulence all but random meaning that the market for each race behaves in a discrete, largely unique and therefore unexpected manner

For the record I still tend to leave small orders overnight in the hope they’re matched (sometimes yes sometimes no) and then start to top-up the stakes around 10 in the morning with either other orders or plunges if value is being laid. In general I manage to get half-stake on pre live market and play the rest in the time-honoured last 5 minutes

Being a very intermittent bettor these days (circa 100 bets a year with several periods of several weeks off) I’m hardly in a position to accurately gauge changes in the Exchange markets over recent years but would cautiously suggest that overnight and morning value has decreased along with the liquidity and that the live market is as good/bad/indifferent as it ever was: no not ever was, but at least since those who thought laying was an easy game in those dear old sweet old halcyon days of Baby Betfair

Of course the acid test and probably most accurate gauge of today’s market efficiency is ‘how’s the bottom line?’ Red Red Green Red Green summarises my last five years; but I’ve always been a Stop Go punter, save for those few sweet old halcyon days that lingered for a few sweet years

It couldn’t have lasted Angel, too much happiness

[Drone]

Good luck and if you’d care to report how you get on (or not get on ) that would be most interesting

Oh yeah, that’ll be fun. I believe Gerald Kaufman referred to Labour’s uber-socialist 1983 manifesto as "The longest suicide note in history" and I presume you’re after the same. There’s nothing like the schadenfreude of watching some deluded fantasist punter crash-and-burn so it would be cruel not to keep you informed.

Anyway, whatever happened to Gerald Kaufman eh? Mind, whatever happened to socialism?

Indeed, the increasingly cadaverous Kaufman staggered to his feet in paliament last week to offer an uncomfortably ingratiating eulogy to Herself; and as for Socialism it made a slight return in the House last night when the dream-team of Galloway and Skinner were allowed free-rein to vent their wrath at the cancellation of today’s Prime Minister’s Questions due to some funeral taking place. The Beast was particularly eloquent – if somewhat faulting in his old age – and his words caused a lot of shoelace staring on the opposition benches. Quite a moving speech actually, if hopelessly and sadly of another time, another place, another country, another world i.e. 1983: Orwell must be kicking himself, close but no Players No.6

In case you’ve misunderstood my request I should make it clear that I wouldn’t dream of asking another punter to divulge his bets, stakes and income; it’s just the problems you may encounter with BOG or betting with bookmakers in general I, and I’m sure others, would be interested to hear about

Punters are all suicidal deluded fantasists to a lesser or greater extent. Still it beats having a proper job doesn’t it

[Gingertipster]

Thanks for the detailed response Drone.

I certainly would

not

say that

ALL

Timeformers arrive at the same selection. But one or two (or more) good

"value"

judges are bound to work it out the same way as I do. Therefore, if I don’t take the price in the morning, it’ll likely disappear by afternoon.

"Late value" are usually different horses to "Early value", and as I’ve been successful at the former don’t often look at the latter – where on-course happenings may also influence the market.

Agree race card ratings are just one thing to allow for. Any Timeformer concentrating too much on ratings will struggle. Going, distance/stamina, track, jockey, temperament, pace in the race and current trainer form important factors.

Value Is Everything

[betlarge]

In case you’ve misunderstood my request I should make it clear that I wouldn’t dream of asking another punter to divulge his bets, stakes and income; it’s just the problems you may encounter with BOG or betting with bookmakers in general I, and I’m sure others, would be interested to hear about

That’s OK, I understood what you meant! Will be happy to file a missive or two along with accompanying psychiatric report, repossession notices etc.

Planning to start on Bank Holiday Monday 6th May unless a) I get dragged to some hideous Bank Holiday event or b) I get completely hooked on the World Snooker final.

Mike

[Drone]

"Late value" are usually different horses to "Early value"

Agreed, late drifts in the live market to assessed value on a horse underlaid all day in the early markets, and therefore all but given up on as a potential bet until the last few minutes, form a small but significant subset of my bets; significant because they’ve returned a near 6% net profit overall, Exchange only

Further to your point made elsewhere about not being tempted to bet "anything shortened to a poor price" well yes I too certainly wouldn’t bet the whole stake underlaid as that goes against the very principle of value betting, but I will bet part of the stake underlaid in the live market if and only if it means that the overall odds on the full stake are still an overlay. e.g my odds 3.0, get half stake on at 3.4 rest at 2.9, so full stake on at value 3.15.

Don’t enjoy doing it though and it’s one of the drawbacks of being an anally-retentive level-staker – must get the usual stake on , must get the full stake on, must must must

[Author]

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