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Churchill has lost his air of invincibility. Three straight defeats and there’s a chance he hasn’t really gone on much at all since the Guineas.
I have Ribchester at 4/1 and downwards, and will go in again at 5/2.
Beat The Bank is a lay for me. I don’t think much of his form and Ribchester has 8 lbs in hand after his 3 lbs concession is factored in. I reckon Balding’s horse hasn’t supped the same cream of the consistent Fahey horse who should probably have won on the gutters if the jockey had had more faith and ridden him all the way.
Al Wukair remains unexposed and was a good 3rd in the Guineas, probably coming from too far off the pace. Said to be needing his next race when beaten by Taareef when odds-on, Al Wukair got revenge in the Marois and beat Taareef by further that day than Ribchester did in the Moulin subsequently. Taareef later landed the Daniel Wildenstein readily enough on Arc weekend.
For me it’s Ribchester and Al Wukair for a saver at 8/1. I think the Racing Post Rating of 123 for Beat The Bank is mildly ridiculous. The colt is a weak group 2 winner. On official ratings, Al Wukair is 8 lbs behing Beat The Bank, despite being a Guineas 3rd and a Group 1 winner who is 4 wins a third and a second in six starts. Beat The Bank was stuffed in 10th in the Jersey Stakes and I think Al Wukair is way better value at nearly twice the odds.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Al Wukair confirmed as an intended runner by the Al Shaqab boys today.
This is quietly turning into one of the races of the season.
Al Wukair confirmed as an intended runner by the Al Shaqab boys today.
This is quietly turning into one of the races of the season.
Thanks for that LS, just backed him @ 7’s
Zelzal goes for the Breeders Cup, cue a monsoon heading straight to California 😉
Don’t think much
Churchill has lost his air of invincibility. Three straight defeats and there’s a chance he hasn’t really gone on much at all since the Guineas.
I have Ribchester at 4/1 and downwards, and will go in again at 5/2.
Beat The Bank is a lay for me. I don’t think much of his form and Ribchester has 8 lbs in hand after his 3 lbs concession is factored in. I reckon Balding’s horse hasn’t supped the same cream of the consistent Fahey horse who should probably have won on the gutters if the jockey had had more faith and ridden him all the way.
Al Wukair remains unexposed and was a good 3rd in the Guineas, probably coming from too far off the pace. Said to be needing his next race when beaten by Taareef when odds-on, Al Wukair got revenge in the Marois and beat Taareef by further that day than Ribchester did in the Moulin subsequently. Taareef later landed the Daniel Wildenstein readily enough on Arc weekend.
For me it’s Ribchester and Al Wukair for a saver at 8/1. I think the Racing Post Rating of 123 for Beat The Bank is mildly ridiculous. The colt is a weak group 2 winner. On official ratings, Al Wukair is 8 lbs behing Beat The Bank, despite being a Guineas 3rd and a Group 1 winner who is 4 wins a third and a second in six starts. Beat The Bank was stuffed in 10th in the Jersey Stakes and I think Al Wukair is way better value at nearly twice the odds.
Taareef’s yard was massively out of form when he faced Al Wukair (see Almanzor and Brametot), so I wouldn’t put any stock in the Ribchester distances. By the same notion, you could argue through the Inns of Court form that Al Wukair has a lot of improving to do (short-head behind Al Wukair when looking a certain winner, 5 lengths behind Ribchester).
Churchill was better last time out but that was over 10f.
Barney Roy proved the better miler of the two and I believe Hannon would have gone Sussex Stakes if Ribchester had not been in the same ownership who you’d have to say rate Ribchester the better miler. Personally I’d keep Churchill to 10f if the decision was mine, he’s got it all to prove back down in distance although I’d still have him ahead of Beat the Bank in the betting. If they all turn up I’d have Beat the Bank as a place lay at current odds.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Don’t think much
Churchill has lost his air of invincibility. Three straight defeats and there’s a chance he hasn’t really gone on much at all since the Guineas.
I have Ribchester at 4/1 and downwards, and will go in again at 5/2.
Beat The Bank is a lay for me. I don’t think much of his form and Ribchester has 8 lbs in hand after his 3 lbs concession is factored in. I reckon Balding’s horse hasn’t supped the same cream of the consistent Fahey horse who should probably have won on the gutters if the jockey had had more faith and ridden him all the way.
Al Wukair remains unexposed and was a good 3rd in the Guineas, probably coming from too far off the pace. Said to be needing his next race when beaten by Taareef when odds-on, Al Wukair got revenge in the Marois and beat Taareef by further that day than Ribchester did in the Moulin subsequently. Taareef later landed the Daniel Wildenstein readily enough on Arc weekend.
For me it’s Ribchester and Al Wukair for a saver at 8/1. I think the Racing Post Rating of 123 for Beat The Bank is mildly ridiculous. The colt is a weak group 2 winner. On official ratings, Al Wukair is 8 lbs behing Beat The Bank, despite being a Guineas 3rd and a Group 1 winner who is 4 wins a third and a second in six starts. Beat The Bank was stuffed in 10th in the Jersey Stakes and I think Al Wukair is way better value at nearly twice the odds.
Taareef’s yard was massively out of form when he faced Al Wukair (see Almanzor and Brametot), so I wouldn’t put any stock in the Ribchester distances. By the same notion, you could argue through the Inns of Court form that Al Wukair has a lot of improving to do (short-head behind Al Wukair when looking a certain winner, 5 lengths behind Ribchester).
I’ve made it clear Ribchester is my main bet and Al Wukair only a saver at 8/1. The French horse remains with potential after only six career starts. The ratings show that he needs more yet but it is unlikely Ribchester can improve much at this stage and I believe Al Wukair is a bigger danger to Ribchester than Beat The Bank is.
I wouldn’t have backed Ribchester as much as I have here if I really felt Al Wukair was the likeliest winner. I am just saying I think he has perhaps the most potential of the others and worth a saver.
We shall see in due course.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Ribchester for me 3/1 and 5/2, likely go in again, hes a steal at those prices he should be shorter
Taareef e/w as a saver but not for much, ribchesters race
If winter was an intended runner she would be the only real danger but it seems her and churchill are reversing roles
Winter is out of both races and will not run at the meeting.
Churchill is being backed and will surely be second favourite ahead of Beat The Bank. A 2000 Guineas winner versus a sappy Group 2 winner, it’s a no brainer surely?
Taareef is out of it as well as Barney Roy.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
For what it’s worth (I know not everyone here believes in speed figures), Beat The Bank has TWICE recorded better sectionals and time figs than Churchill’s career best on the speed figures I subscribe to*.
There is reason to believe Beat The Bank is at least in the ballpark of these good horses, probably a match for them too. I was never a believer in sectionals myself (actually posted a few long rants against them on here a couple of years ago) but I’ve been converted since I’ve had access to high quality speed ratings. It’s uncanny how often the data tells you which minor pattern winners can win in the next grade up, which maiden winners are good things in handicaps and which handicappers can win at pattern level. It’s the essence of why Timeform’s Sleepy Hollow boys actually make money and find winners with a solid ROI. Their visual analysis can be ‘man in the pub’ stuff and they have bizarre love affairs with horses like Time Test, but the core of sectional-based winner-finding is what keeps them in front nowadays.
I know Beat The Bank has an unsexy profile in comparison to horses who have won or placed in Classics and G1s but he is churning out some huge runs on the clock. The hardcore sectionalistas are all over it. I think it’s a bit A-Grade to be talking about place-laying him just because he hasn’t been tested at this level yet. He did come back with a valid excuse at Royal Ascot so that’s hardly a stick to beat the horse with.
*only UK runs are included, no data on Irish form
I’ll lay Beat The Bank but there is too much dead wood in this race to place lay him.
Churchill has had a busy enough time of it this year. Tons of those in the list are no-hopers unless it’s a bog.
I felt Ribchester at 5/2 was miles better value than Cracksman at similar odds in the Champion Stakes.
I’ve done Zabeel Prince at 5/1 in the Balmoral Handicap and they are my two main bets for Saturday. I feel Varian’s lightly raced 4YO could be Group quality and he has been swooping to win his races cosily. Lord Glitters looks a decent recruit for David O’Meara but I prefer the Varian horse. 5/1 he is now. I just have a hunch he may go off half those odds.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Whatever his sectionals were he was still only about 8 lengths ahead of Sovereign Debt who finished 4th with that horse conceding 7lbs to him. Ribchester will only be conceding the 3lbs on Saturday. His price is far too short on actually achievement. He could still be improving mind you so good luck to those who are on, just not for me at this stage of his career in this race.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Whatever his sectionals were he was still only about 8 lengths ahead of Sovereign Debt who finished 4th with that horse conceding 7lbs to him. Ribchester will only be conceding the 3lbs on Saturday. His price is far too short on actually achievement. He could still be improving mind you so good luck to those who are on, just not for me at this stage of his career in this race.
Only about 8 lengths, Nathan?
Ribchester will also need to give Beat The Bank weight for age. Although carrying a penalty, Soverign Debt was only “conceding” 3 lbs more than weight for age. Taking 3 lbs off the 8 lengths means BTB still effectively gave SD almost a 7 lengths beating. Even Ribchester would struggle to beat Sovereign Debt more than 7 lengths at levels.Am more than happy with my 8/1 Beat The Bank and 3/1 Ribchester.
Like so often is the case, when a horse wins a race by a long margin many don’t understand how good the performance is. It may only be Sir John Lavery he beat by 5 lengths, but there’s plenty of room to put many bloody good horses in that 5 lengths gap.
Value Is EverythingIndeed and I think that G2 is a deceptively strong piece of form.
Sir John Lavery is a bit of a slider, a difficult one to get a handle on since he has dropped in trip. I think he’s a quality horse though. Sir John was arguably unlucky not to beat Suedois in the Boomerang Stakes two starts ago (going well enough when stopped in his run, finished strongly). The Sued-heads have since celebrated a G1 win in the Shadwell Turf Mile. Even third-placed Psychedelic Funk went on to win a G3. You could arguably rate Sir John alongside Suedois in the Boomerang, probably with a + for SJL given that the slow pace would have been against him.
Onwards to Newmarket, Whitecliffsofdover set a very strong pace and Sir John Lavery was able to express himself much better. He didn’t seem to handle the dip but probably outran his Boomerang Stakes form by pulling well clear of Jallota, whose stable was going well at the time. Jallota went on to run something like a career-best in a solid renewal of the Guisborough Stakes. With Jallota probably running to 111, Sir John Lavery to 112+ and Beat The Bank blitzing them by five lengths (hands and heels near finish), I think it’s conservative to say Beat The Bank ran 120+. Ribchester is only 125 officially (more like 122/123§ on my ratings) and has to give weight-for-age. Churchill is only 123 officially (118 on my ratings). Al Wukair 116+ on my ratings, 110 officially.
I feel like that logic is watertight. I’m already on Beat The Bank but I’d still say there is value in the current 9/2.
He deserves his chance no doubt but the price is laughable
He was 11/8 to beat that field in the Joel Stakes if his sectionals were that good previously why wasn’t he odds on
Ribchester would of been 1/10 in that fieldBlackbeard to conquer the World
He deserves his chance no doubt but the price is laughable
He was 11/8 to beat that field in the Joel Stakes if his sectionals were that good previously why wasn’t he odds on
Ribchester would of been 1/10 in that fieldYes, Nathan. I dare say Ribchester would’ve “been 1/10 to beat that field”, and had Ribchester beaten them by 6 lengths (just one length more than Beat The Bank) everyone would have said he’d ran to form. ie There isn’t as much between the two as you might think. Not so simple as Multiple Group 1 winner V Zero Group 1 winner.
@ 9/4 (30.8%) and 9/2 (18.2%) 11/10 combined… I’d say it should be a shade of odds-on one of the pair winning. Currently a small amount of value in both, but a lot will depend on who now turns up. So if punters aren’t on already it may be best to wait until the day. Especially if a lot of punters may think the way some on here are.
Value Is EverythingHe deserves his chance no doubt but the price is laughable
He was 11/8 to beat that field in the Joel Stakes if his sectionals were that good previously why wasn’t he odds on
Ribchester would of been 1/10 in that fieldYes, Nathan. I dare say Ribchester would’ve “been 1/10 to beat that field”, and had Ribchester beaten them by 6 lengths (just one length more than Beat The Bank) everyone would have said he’d ran to form. ie There isn’t as much between the two as you might think. Not so simple as Multiple Group 1 winner V Zero Group 1 winner.
@ 9/4 (30.8%) and 9/2 (18.2%) 11/10 combined… I’d say it should be a shade of odds-on one of the pair winning. Currently a small amount of value in both, but a lot will depend on who now turns up. So if punters aren’t on already it may be best to wait until the day. Especially if a lot of punters may think the way some on here are.
On offical ratings their is a fair bit between them,im not the biggest ribchester fan but if you sift through current form, ribchesters rivals have won group twos, placed group 2s, placed group 1s and won a group 1…… if you run through beat the banks, theirs a listed winner?
Im not suggesting beat the bank cant win, im just saying his chances are worse than 9/2, he should be 6 or 7/1 behind al wukair, the price is wrong, he beat a listed/fading group 3 field at best.. wouldnt be surprised if he finished 6 or 7th if the field as it is just now lines up
Al wukair won a pretty decent group 1 lto and hes a better price than a runaway group 2 winner which consisted of a listed group 3 field?,the first 5 in al wukairs last race would have did what beatbthe bank did to that field
Sectionals like ive said before i couldnt care less about, Theirs way way to many variables in sectionals for them to make a difference in selections.
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