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  • #6478

    JimF
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    • Total Posts 111

    A couple of years ago I downloaded the course records for flat races from the Racing Post site. I had a look at them the other day and noticed an unexpected (for me at least) characteristic, it is that quite often the record is broken at more than one distance on the same day, or on successive days. I have included some of the data below, clearly not all of the records still stand, but it was accurate a couple of years or so ago.

    I had naively expected that the course record being broken would either signify an exception horse, and/or that the jockey had got the pace just right that day and that energy was used in an optimal way, thereby resulting in a record time. There are some champions amongst the names, but there are also a great many record holders that had otherwise unexceptional careers (other that holding one of these course records). As for jockeys getting it just right, perhaps once, but surely not two or three times on the same day?

    Some records are probably explained by hand-timing errors and some by running rail changes and so on, but I don’t think that all of them can be explained away so easily. Others clearly coincide with Festival days, when the best races for the particular course were taking place.

    Which only leaves going (I think), could it be that the going is even more of a factor in the final time than is generally thought? Could it be that when the amount of moisture in the ground is just right that an otherwise unexceptional animal can return a champions time performance? Or have I missed something obvious, any ideas/explanations?

    17/06/1992 ASCOT 5f Lyric Fantasy (2yo ) 59.72s
    17/06/1992 ASCOT 7f Prince Ferdinand 1m 25.94s
    17/06/1992 ASCOT 1m Colour Sergeant 1m 38.07s
    17/06/1992 ASCOT 2m45y Landowner 3m 25.29s
    16/09/1993 AYR 5f Sir Joey 57.20s
    16/09/1993 AYR 7f Jazeel (2yo ) 1m 25.71s
    18/09/1993 AYR 6f Sobering Thoughts 1m 8.98s
    18/09/1993 AYR 1m5f13y Eden’s Close 2m 45.81s
    25/08/2000 BATH 5f11y Double Fantasy (2yo ) 1m 0.10s
    25/08/2000 BATH 5f11y Cauda Equina 59.90s
    25/08/2000 BATH 5f161y Sibla (2yo ) 1m 9.10s
    10/09/2001 BATH 1m5y Swing Wing (2yo ) 1m 40.20s
    10/09/2001 BATH 1m3f144y Anticipate 2m 26.10s
    30/07/1991 BEVERLEY 7f100y Majal (IRE) (2yo ) 1m 31.10s
    30/07/1991 BEVERLEY 7f100y Who’s Tef 1m 29.50s
    10/09/1991 CARLISLE 5f207y Parfait Armour (2yo ) 1m 12.80s
    10/09/1991 CARLISLE 6f206y Sense of Priority (2yo ) 1m 26.50s
    21/08/2002 CARLISLE 5f Esatto 58.80s
    21/08/2002 CARLISLE 6f192y Marjurita (IRE) 1m 24.30s
    21/08/2002 CARLISLE 7f200y School Days 1m 37.50s
    31/05/1984 CATTERICK 5f212y Triad Treble 1m 10.40s
    31/05/1984 CATTERICK 1m5f175y Geryon 2m 54.80s
    09/09/1989 CHEPSTOW 6f16y Royal Fifi (2yo ) 1m 9.40s
    09/09/1989 CHEPSTOW 1m2f36y It’s Varadan 2m 4.10s
    18/09/2001 CHEPSTOW 6f16y America Calling (USA) 1m 8.10s
    18/09/2001 CHEPSTOW 7f16y Taranaki 1m 19.30s
    18/09/2001 CHEPSTOW 1m14y Stoli (IRE) 1m 31.60s
    09/05/2001 CHESTER 7f2y Monnavanna 1m 24.57s
    09/05/2001 CHESTER 1m3f79y Rockerlong 2m 22.55s
    13/07/2002 CHESTER 7f2y Grey Emminence (FR) 1m 24.36s
    13/07/2002 CHESTER 1m7f195y Grand Fromage (IRE) 3m 20.33s
    31/08/2002 CHESTER 6f18y Flying Express (2yo ) 1m 12.85s
    31/08/2002 CHESTER 7f2y Stressless (IRE) (2yo ) 1m 25.77s
    25/09/2002 CHESTER 7f2y Due Respect (IRE) (2yo ) 1m 25.29s
    25/09/2002 CHESTER 7f122y Big Bad Bob (IRE) (2yo ) 1m 32.29s
    26/07/1995 DONCASTER 6f Iltimas (USA) 1m 9.74s
    26/07/1995 DONCASTER 1m2f60y Carlito Brigante 2m 5.48s
    11/09/1997 DONCASTER 1m Midnight Line (USA) (2yo ) 1m 37.49s
    11/09/1997 DONCASTER 1m Lend A Hand (2yo ) 1m 37.52s
    11/09/1997 DONCASTER 2m2f Canon Can (USA) 3m 52.17s
    06/10/1986 MUSSELBURGH 7f15y Mubdi (2yo ) 1m 27.50s
    06/10/1986 MUSSELBURGH 1m16y Tromp D’Oeil (2yo ) 1m 40.90s
    16/05/1994 MUSSELBURGH 5f Arasong (2yo ) 57.70s
    16/05/1994 MUSSELBURGH 7f15y Mbulwa 1m 25.50s
    03/06/2000 MUSSELBURGH 5f Corunna 57.30s
    03/06/2000 MUSSELBURGH 1m1f Kid’z’Play 1m 51.70s
    26/06/2000 MUSSELBURGH 7f30y Sand Bankes (2yo ) 1m 28.40s
    26/06/2000 MUSSELBURGH 1m4f Alexandrine 2m 33.70s
    04/09/2001 MUSSELBURGH 1m Swynford Elegance 1m 39.20s
    04/09/2001 MUSSELBURGH 1m Honor Rouge (IRE) (2yo ) 1m 40.90s
    22/08/2002 MUSSELBURGH 7f30y Waltzing Wizard 1m 26.30s
    22/08/2002 MUSSELBURGH 1m1f Short Respite 1m 50.80s
    05/06/1991 EPSOM 6f Showbrook (2yo ) 1m 7.85s
    05/06/1991 EPSOM 1m114y Sylva Honda 1m 40.75s
    25/07/1995 GOODWOOD 7f Brief Glimpse (IRE) 1m 23.88s
    25/07/1995 GOODWOOD 1m4f Presenting 2m 31.57s
    27/07/1999 GOODWOOD 5f Rudi’s Pet 56.01s
    27/07/1999 GOODWOOD 1m6f Mowbray 2m 58.57s
    28/07/1999 GOODWOOD 6f Bachir (IRE) (2yo ) 1m 9.81s
    28/07/1999 GOODWOOD 1m Aljabr (USA) 1m 35.66s
    25/09/1972 HAMILTON 5f4y Fair Dandy (2yo ) 58.00s
    25/09/1972 HAMILTON 1m65y Cranley 1m 42.70s
    24/08/1999 HAMILTON 6f5y Break The Code (2yo ) 1m 10.00s
    24/08/1999 HAMILTON 1m1f36y Jedi Knight 1m 54.10s
    05/08/1995 HAYDOCK 5f That Man Again 58.60s
    05/08/1995 HAYDOCK 1m2f120y Fahal (USA) 2m 8.53s
    07/09/1996 HAYDOCK 6f Iktamal (USA) 1m 9.92s
    07/09/1996 HAYDOCK 7f30y Apprehension (2yo ) 1m 29.40s
    07/09/1996 HAYDOCK 1m30y Besiege (2yo ) 1m 40.69s
    28/06/1995 KEMPTON 7f Canons Park (2yo ) 1m 24.78s
    28/06/1995 KEMPTON 1m Private Line 1m 35.39s
    31/05/1997 KEMPTON 5f Almaty (IRE) 57.42s
    31/05/1997 KEMPTON 7f Shaheen (USA) 1m 23.63s
    29/05/1999 KEMPTON 6f Magic Rainbow 1m 9.70s
    29/05/1999 KEMPTON 6f Don Puccini (2yo ) 1m 10.60s
    29/05/1999 KEMPTON 2m Emminence Grise (IRE) 3m 24.36s
    09/06/1986 LEICESTER 5f2y Cutting Blade (2yo ) 58.40s
    09/06/1986 LEICESTER 7f9y Flower Bowl 1m 20.80s
    24/10/1995 LEICESTER 5f218y Thordis (IRE) (2yo ) 1m 10.10s
    24/10/1995 LEICESTER 1m8y Lady Carla (2yo ) 1m 34.50s
    18/06/2000 LEICESTER 1m1f218y Lady Angharad (IRE) 2m 2.40s
    18/06/2000 LEICESTER 1m3f183y Murghem (IRE) 2m 27.10s
    07/11/1978 LINGFIELD 7f140y Hiaam 1m 26.73s
    07/11/1978 LINGFIELD 7f140y Rather Warm (2yo ) 1m 29.93s
    19/07/1996 NEWBURY 7f64y Green Perfume (USA) 1m 26.13s
    19/07/1996 NEWBURY 2m Moonlight Quest 3m 25.42s
    20/07/1996 NEWBURY 7f Imperial President (2yo ) 1m 24.13s
    20/07/1996 NEWBURY 1m2f6y Wall Street (USA) 2m 1.29s
    20/07/1996 NEWBURY 1m5f61y Mystic Hill 2m 44.90s
    22/07/2000 NEWBURY 5f34y Superstar Leo (2yo ) 59.19s
    22/07/2000 NEWBURY 6f8y Ascension (2yo ) 1m 11.43s
    22/07/2000 NEWBURY 6f8y Auenklang (GER) 1m 9.81s
    31/08/1998 NEWCASTLE 7f Iscan (IRE) (2yo ) 1m 24.26s
    31/08/1998 NEWCASTLE 7f Quiet Venture 1m 23.34s
    31/08/1998 NEWCASTLE 1m3y Hoh Steamer (IRE) (2yo ) 1m 37.10s
    17/10/1991 NEWMARKET 7f Perfolia 1m 22.24s
    17/10/1991 NEWMARKET 1m Bold Pursuit (2yo ) 1m 36.70s
    11/07/2001 NEWMARKET 1m6f175y Arrive 3m 4.27s
    11/07/2001 NEWMARKET 2m24y Yorkshire 3m 20.28s
    03/10/2002 NEWMARKET 5f Valiant Romeo (2yo ) 58.76s
    03/10/2002 NEWMARKET 6f Oasis Dream (2yo ) 1m 9.61s
    03/10/2002 NEWMARKET 1m Desert Deer 1m 34.54s
    05/10/2002 NEWMARKET 7f Khulood (USA) (2yo ) 1m 23.02s
    05/10/2002 NEWMARKET 1m1f Beauchamp Pilot 1m 47.28s
    02/09/1991 NOTTINGHAM 1m54y King’s Loch (2yo ) 1m 40.80s
    02/09/1991 NOTTINGHAM 1m54y Blake’s Treasure 1m 39.60s
    06/09/1983 PONTEFRACT 6f Fawzi (2yo ) 1m 14.00s
    06/09/1983 PONTEFRACT 2m1f22y Night Eye 3m 42.10s
    20/09/2001 PONTEFRACT 5f Golden Bounty (2yo ) 1m 1.10s
    20/09/2001 PONTEFRACT 1m4y Nigrasine 1m 41.30s
    25/07/1990 REDCAR 1m1f Mellottie 1m 48.50s
    25/07/1990 REDCAR 1m6f19y Trainglot 2m 59.90s
    24/10/1995 REDCAR 5f Mister Joel (2yo ) 56.90s
    24/10/1995 REDCAR 1m Night Wink (USA) 1m 33.10s
    25/06/1986 SALISBURY 6f Prince Sky 1m 11.54s
    25/06/1986 SALISBURY 1m1f209y Kala Nashan 2m 4.45s
    26/07/1993 SOUTHWELL 6f Miss Haggis 1m 14.10s
    26/07/1993 SOUTHWELL 1m2f Bronze Maquette (IRE) 2m 10.00s
    04/07/2001 SOUTHWELL 6f Yaselda (2yo ) 1m 15.60s
    04/07/2001 SOUTHWELL 7f Dulcet Spear (2yo ) 1m 29.10s
    23/07/1999 THIRSK 6f Johayro 1m 8.80s
    23/07/1999 THIRSK 7f Courting (2yo ) 1m 23.70s
    07/07/1987 WARWICK 1m2f169y Classic Tale 2m 13.20s
    07/07/1987 WARWICK 1m6f194y Chucklestone 3m 8.90s
    02/07/1999 WARWICK 7f164y Mezzoramio 1m 33.80s
    02/07/1999 WARWICK 1m2f110y First Fantasy 2m 12.00s
    02/07/1999 WARWICK 1m6f135y Burma Baby (USA) 3m 7.50s
    17/07/1999 WARWICK 6f168y Italian Symphony (IRE) 1m 20.80s
    17/07/1999 WARWICK 1m4f56y Wadi 2m 36.60s
    22/06/2002 WARWICK 1m2f188y Raised The Bar (USA) 2m 17.00s
    22/06/2002 WARWICK 1m4f134y Maimana (IRE) 2m 39.50s
    26/06/2002 WARWICK 5f110y Be My Tinker 1m 3.80s
    26/06/2002 WARWICK 1m22y Orinocovsky (IRE) 1m 37.10s
    26/06/2002 WARWICK 2m39y Decoy 3m 27.90s
    07/07/2002 WARWICK 5f Little Edward 57.70s
    07/07/2002 WARWICK 6f21y Beyond Calculation (USA) 1m 12.10s
    11/09/1978 WINDSOR 5f10y Miss Merlin (disq) (2yo ) 58.90s
    11/09/1978 WINDSOR 5f217y Sweet Relief 1m 10.10s
    15/09/1988 YARMOUTH 5f43y Charm Bird 1m 0.20s
    15/09/1988 YARMOUTH 7f3y Cielamour 1m 22.20s
    15/09/1988 YARMOUTH 1m3y Outrun (2yo ) 1m 36.30s
    26/07/1999 YARMOUTH 5f43y Ebba (2yo ) 1m 0.40s
    26/07/1999 YARMOUTH 2m Alhesn (USA) 3m 26.70s
    22/08/1996 YORK 6f Indiscreet (CAN) (2yo ) 1m 9.59s
    22/08/1996 YORK 7f202y Concer Un 1m 34.81s
    02/09/1999 YORK 7f202y The Wife (2yo ) 1m 37.24s
    02/09/1999 YORK 1m205y Gold Academy 1m 47.03s

    #139413

    Wallace
    Participant
    • Total Posts 898

    The current RF based timing system used for all flat races was introduced to all courses about three years ago and this has at least removed one obvious variable. Prior to this there was a mixture of electronic timing at the major courses and manual at others. Any record time at a minor course from years ago must be suspect.

    Movement of running rails and tracks not measured accurately provide a lot of scope for error and meaning less data is produced.

    #139415
    scallywag76
    scallywag76
    Member
    • Total Posts 286

    Your original expectation was naive Jim.

    It’s not just the state of the ground that’s important, either. Wind speed / direction can be a major influence, Newmarket being a prime example where fast times are often recorded on days where a strong tail wind prevails. Weight carried also comes into the equation.

    #139417

    Prufrock
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2115

    Conditions – especially ground but also wind – have a massive say in overall race times.

    It used to be the case that at the very top range of going times would actually get slightly slower – jockeys being wary of lightning-fast ground, horses not "letting themselves down – but those sort of conditions seem a thing of the past. Basically, the firmer the going, the faster the times.

    The effect on times of the difference between firm going and good going, for instance, is similar to the difference between a good Derby winner and an ordinary handicapper.

    #139419
    Cav
    Cav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4896

    The majority of those distances are towards the shorter end of the scale and would have been predominately run on a straight course which would suggest wind as a factor. Off hand Newbury, Nottingham, Haydock, Bath and Leicester can sometimes have huge tailwinds on their straight courses.

    #139420
    Cav
    Cav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4896

    I’ve just checked RI for the Newmarket 03/10/02, the in-focus comment contains

    In-focus: Three course records were set during the afternoon which the jockeys put down to a combination of good to firm ground and a strong tailwind.

    #139421
    Charlie D
    Charlie D
    Member
    • Total Posts 504

    Pace (strong)
    Ground (fastish)
    Wind (tail)
    Field size (biggish)

    Combine some or all of these and you have horses that would probably cover the distance quicker than the norm

    These scenario’s tend to occur in handicaps, hence the reason i think most track records belong to horses of handicapping ability

    #139441

    JimF
    Participant
    • Total Posts 111

    Your original expectation was naive Jim.

    :lol:

    Many thanks everyone. ‘Wind’ will certainly explain quite a lot of it. I also checked on Newmarket 03/10/2002 and the RP notes that ‘wind’ was a significant factor that day, but no mention of ‘wind’ when the records were again broken two days later. Nor is there any mention of ‘wind’ as contributing to the three straight course records at Newbury on 22/07/2000.

    More data below, covering the same races as before but giving the following additional information: ‘Hcap or Stks’, ‘Official Going’, ‘Weight Carried’, ‘Number of Runners’, ‘Straight or Round Course’. It looks a very mixed bag to me, a bit of everything, but it is a relief to see that ‘Firm’ and ‘G/F’ are clear favourites in the going stakes!

    17/06/1992 ASCOT 1m Hcap G/F 7-8 31 S
    17/06/1992 ASCOT 2m45y Stks G/F 8-11 11 R
    17/06/1992 ASCOT 5f Stks G/F 8-8 13 S
    17/06/1992 ASCOT 7f Stks G/F 9-1 12 S
    16/09/1993 AYR 5f Hcap G/F 9-5 20 S
    16/09/1993 AYR 7f Stks G/F 9-0 8 R
    18/09/1993 AYR 1m5f13y Hcap G/F 9-7 10 R
    18/09/1993 AYR 6f Hcap G/F 8-8 28 S
    25/08/2000 BATH 5f11y Stks Firm 8-11 8 R
    25/08/2000 BATH 5f11y Stks Firm 9-2 7 R
    25/08/2000 BATH 5f161y Stks Firm 8-7 8 R
    10/09/2001 BATH 1m3f144y Stks Firm 8-12 8 R
    10/09/2001 BATH 1m5y Hcap Firm 9-2 9 R
    30/07/1991 BEVERLEY 7f100y Hcap Firm 7-8 8 R
    30/07/1991 BEVERLEY 7f100y Stks Firm 9-0 11 R
    10/09/1991 CARLISLE 5f207y Stks Hard 8-9 8 R
    10/09/1991 CARLISLE 6f206y Stks Hard 9-4 6 R
    21/08/2002 CARLISLE 5f Hcap G/F 9-8 10 R
    21/08/2002 CARLISLE 6f192y Stks G/F 8-9 12 R
    21/08/2002 CARLISLE 7f200y Hcap G/F 9-3 17 R
    31/05/1984 CATTERICK 1m5f175y
    31/05/1984 CATTERICK 5f212y
    09/09/1989 CHEPSTOW 1m2f36y Hcap G/F 7-8 7 R
    09/09/1989 CHEPSTOW 6f16y Stks G/F 9-0 4 S
    18/09/2001 CHEPSTOW 1m14y Hcap Firm 8-13 17 S
    18/09/2001 CHEPSTOW 6f16y Hcap Firm 9-7 19 S
    18/09/2001 CHEPSTOW 7f16y Stks Firm 9-0 15 S
    09/05/2001 CHESTER 1m3f79y Stks G/F 8-9 7 R
    09/05/2001 CHESTER 7f2y Stks G/F 8-11 10 R
    13/07/2002 CHESTER 1m7f195y Hcap G/F 9-0 8 R
    13/07/2002 CHESTER 7f2y Stks G/F 8-13 7 R
    31/08/2002 CHESTER 6f18y Stks G/F 8-10 6 R
    31/08/2002 CHESTER 7f2y Stks G/F 9-0 8 R
    25/09/2002 CHESTER 7f122y Stks G/F 9-0 5 R
    25/09/2002 CHESTER 7f2y Stks G/F 9-0 7 R
    26/07/1995 DONCASTER 1m2f60y Hcap G/F 8-8 7 R
    26/07/1995 DONCASTER 6f Stks G/F 8-9 4 S
    11/09/1997 DONCASTER 1m Stks G/F 9-0 9 R
    11/09/1997 DONCASTER 1m Hcap G/F 9-5 21 S
    11/09/1997 DONCASTER 2m2f Stks G/F 9-0 5 R
    05/06/1991 EPSOM 1m114y Stks G/F 8-6 11 R
    05/06/1991 EPSOM 6f Stks G/F 8-11 6 R
    25/07/1995 GOODWOOD 1m4f Stks Firm 8-10 7 R
    25/07/1995 GOODWOOD 7f Stks Firm 8-7 10 R
    27/07/1999 GOODWOOD 1m6f Hcap G/F 9-2 17 R
    27/07/1999 GOODWOOD 5f Stks G/F 9-0 15 S
    28/07/1999 GOODWOOD 1m Stks G/F 8-13 8 R
    28/07/1999 GOODWOOD 6f Stks G/F 8-11 7 S
    25/09/1972 HAMILTON 1m65y
    25/09/1972 HAMILTON 5f4y
    24/08/1999 HAMILTON 1m1f36y Hcap G/F 9-4 8 R
    24/08/1999 HAMILTON 6f5y Stks G/F 8-12 5 S
    05/08/1995 HAYDOCK 1m2f120y Stks G/F 8-7 9 R
    05/08/1995 HAYDOCK 5f Hcap G/F 9-7 14 S
    07/09/1996 HAYDOCK 1m30y Stks G/F 8-12 5 R
    07/09/1996 HAYDOCK 6f Stks G/F 9-0 11 S
    07/09/1996 HAYDOCK 7f30y Stks G/F 9-0 7 R
    28/06/1995 KEMPTON 1m Stks G/F 8-12 8 J
    28/06/1995 KEMPTON 7f Stks G/F 9-0 8 J
    31/05/1997 KEMPTON 5f Stks G/F 9-3 9 S
    31/05/1997 KEMPTON 7f Stks G/F 9-0 17 J
    29/05/1999 KEMPTON 2m Hcap G/F 8-9 9 R
    29/05/1999 KEMPTON 6f Stks G/F 8-10 6 S
    29/05/1999 KEMPTON 6f Hcap G/F 9-1 9 S
    09/06/1986 LEICESTER 5f2y
    09/06/1986 LEICESTER 7f9y
    24/10/1995 LEICESTER 1m8y Stks Firm 8-9 12 S
    24/10/1995 LEICESTER 5f218y Stks Firm 9-0 19 S
    18/06/2000 LEICESTER 1m1f218y Stks G/F 9-6 6 R
    18/06/2000 LEICESTER 1m3f183y Stks G/F 8-12 6 R
    07/11/1978 LINGFIELD 7f140y
    07/11/1978 LINGFIELD 7f140y
    06/10/1986 MUSSELBURGH 1m16y
    06/10/1986 MUSSELBURGH 7f15y
    16/05/1994 MUSSELBURGH 5f Stks Firm 8-2 7 S
    16/05/1994 MUSSELBURGH 7f15y Hcap Firm 8-4 11 R
    03/06/2000 MUSSELBURGH 1m1f Hcap Firm 9-7 16 R
    03/06/2000 MUSSELBURGH 5f Stks Firm 8-12 8 S
    26/06/2000 MUSSELBURGH 1m4f Hcap Firm 9-11 8 R
    26/06/2000 MUSSELBURGH 7f30y Stks Firm 8-8 5 R
    04/09/2001 MUSSELBURGH 1m Hcap Firm 8-4 12 R
    04/09/2001 MUSSELBURGH 1m Stks Firm 8-6 5 R
    22/08/2002 MUSSELBURGH 1m1f Stks Firm 9-2 12 R
    22/08/2002 MUSSELBURGH 7f30y Hcap Firm 9-5 14 R
    19/07/1996 NEWBURY 2m Hcap G/F 9-12 6 R
    19/07/1996 NEWBURY 7f64y Stks G/F 9-12 7 R
    20/07/1996 NEWBURY 1m2f6y Stks G/F 8-7 6 R
    20/07/1996 NEWBURY 1m5f61y Hcap G/F 10-0 14 R
    20/07/1996 NEWBURY 7f Stks G/F 8-13 5 S
    22/07/2000 NEWBURY 5f34y Stks G/F 8-6 22 S
    22/07/2000 NEWBURY 6f8y Stks G/F 8-6 6 S
    22/07/2000 NEWBURY 6f8y Stks G/F 8-12 11 S
    31/08/1998 NEWCASTLE 1m3y Hcap G/F 8-3 14 S
    31/08/1998 NEWCASTLE 7f Hcap G/F 9-2 11 S
    31/08/1998 NEWCASTLE 7f Stks G/F 9-0 9 S
    17/10/1991 NEWMARKET 1m Stks G/F 9-0 22 S
    17/10/1991 NEWMARKET 7f Hcap G/F 9-5 17 S
    11/07/2001 NEWMARKET 1m6f175y Stks Good 8-5 10 R
    11/07/2001 NEWMARKET 2m24y Hcap Good 9-10 11 R
    03/10/2002 NEWMARKET 1m Stks G/F 9-0 8 S
    03/10/2002 NEWMARKET 5f Hcap G/F 8-5 10 S
    03/10/2002 NEWMARKET 6f Stks G/F 8-11 10 S
    05/10/2002 NEWMARKET 1m1f Hcap Firm 9-5 30 S
    05/10/2002 NEWMARKET 7f Stks Firm 8-9 9 S
    02/09/1991 NOTTINGHAM 1m54y Hcap G/F 8-2 20 R
    02/09/1991 NOTTINGHAM 1m54y Stks G/F 9-0 18 R
    06/09/1983 PONTEFRACT 2m1f22y
    06/09/1983 PONTEFRACT 6f
    20/09/2001 PONTEFRACT 1m4y Stks Firm 8-9 17 R
    20/09/2001 PONTEFRACT 5f Stks Firm 9-0 15 R
    25/07/1990 REDCAR 1m1f Hcap Firm 8-12 9 R
    25/07/1990 REDCAR 1m6f19y Hcap Firm 8-7 4 R
    24/10/1995 REDCAR 1m Hcap Firm 9-5 14 S
    24/10/1995 REDCAR 5f Stks Firm 9-0 11 S
    25/06/1986 SALISBURY 1m1f209y
    25/06/1986 SALISBURY 6f
    26/07/1993 SOUTHWELL 1m2f Hcap Good 9-4 14 R
    26/07/1993 SOUTHWELL 6f Hcap G/F 9-12 8 R
    04/07/2001 SOUTHWELL 6f Stks G/F 8-11 5 R
    04/07/2001 SOUTHWELL 7f Stks G/F 9-0 4 R
    23/07/1999 THIRSK 6f Hcap Firm 9-4 13 S
    23/07/1999 THIRSK 7f Stks Firm 8-9 4 R
    07/07/1987 WARWICK 1m2f169y
    07/07/1987 WARWICK 1m6f194y
    02/07/1999 WARWICK 1m2f110y Hcap G/F 9-0 20 R
    02/07/1999 WARWICK 1m6f135y Hcap G/F 9-7 9 R
    02/07/1999 WARWICK 7f164y Hcap G/F 8-11 19 R
    17/07/1999 WARWICK 1m4f56y Hcap G/F 9-9 13 R
    17/07/1999 WARWICK 6f168y Hcap G/F 8-5 12 R
    22/06/2002 WARWICK 1m2f188y Hcap G/F 9-1 8 R
    22/06/2002 WARWICK 1m4f134y Stks G/F 8-13 4 R
    26/06/2002 WARWICK 1m22y Hcap Firm 8-11 11 R
    26/06/2002 WARWICK 2m39y Hcap Firm 8-1 7 R
    26/06/2002 WARWICK 5f110y Hcap Firm 7-12 15 R
    07/07/2002 WARWICK 5f Hcap G/F 9-6 15 R
    07/07/2002 WARWICK 6f21y Stks G/F 9-7 13 R
    11/09/1978 WINDSOR 5f10y
    11/09/1978 WINDSOR 5f217y
    15/09/1988 YARMOUTH 1m3y Hcap Firm 8-2 5 R
    15/09/1988 YARMOUTH 5f43y Stks Firm 8-11 8 S
    15/09/1988 YARMOUTH 7f3y Stks Firm 8-7 4 S
    26/07/1999 YARMOUTH 2m Hcap G/F 8-2 9 R
    26/07/1999 YARMOUTH 5f43y Stks G/F 8-6 3 S
    22/08/1996 YORK 6f Stks G/F 9-0 8 S
    22/08/1996 YORK 7f202y Hcap G/F 8-10 18 R
    02/09/1999 YORK 1m205y Stks G/F 8-10 7 R
    02/09/1999 YORK 7f202y Hcap G/F 9-4 14 R

    #139468

    Anonymous
    • Total Posts 18146

    JimF

    could it be that the going is even more of a factor in the final time than is generally thought”?

    Surely it is blindingly obvious that the faster the going, the more the likelihood of fast, or record, times???
    Most record times will have been recorded on fast ground – whatever the official description on the day.

    #139474

    JimF
    Participant
    • Total Posts 111

    Surely it is blindingly obvious that the faster the going, the more the likelihood of fast, or record, times???
    Most record times will have been recorded on fast ground – whatever the official description on the day.

    Yes, obviously that is true, but "if the going is even more of a factor in the final time than is generally thought" it MIGHT follow that almost any horse could set a new course record simply by racing on the right surface at the right time. If that WERE to be the case it would bring the whole basis for speed ratings into question, because there would probably then be little or no correlation between speed and class.

    #139506

    Mavrick
    Member
    • Total Posts 44

    Surely it is blindingly obvious that the faster the going, the more the likelihood of fast, or record, times???
    Most record times will have been recorded on fast ground – whatever the official description on the day.

    Yes, obviously that is true, but "if the going is even more of a factor in the final time than is generally thought" it MIGHT follow that almost any horse could set a new course record simply by racing on the right surface at the right time. If that WERE to be the case it would bring the whole basis for speed ratings into question, because there would probably then be little or no correlation between speed and class.

    I am not sure what you mean here. If you are calculating the going allowance using class pars, then back referencing them to previous runs then you can work out quite accurately what effect the ground was having and be able to generate accurate speed ratrings.

    Quite often I’m adding 2+ seconds/mile to even the fastest time on the all weather to bring the ratings into line. This has no effect on the accuracy of the speed ratings, unless you simply calculate your going allowance by averaging the fastest times in relation to class pars on the card, which is a terrible way to do it, even if Nick Mordin himself states that’s how it should be done.

    Always use common sense and previous ratings when calculating going allowances and speed ratings. If the ratings look too big compared with previous runs, then the chance are that they are.

    Just my 0.002 cents.

    #139511

    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1758

    Just read this thread and I have to agree almost totally with Prufrock and reet hard that it’s invariably fast ground that produces these record times aided and abetted by decent horses and the occasional tail wind.
    Rather obvious, as someone has already said.

    #139514

    JimF
    Participant
    • Total Posts 111

    Just read this thread and I have to agree almost totally with Prufrock and reet hard that it’s invariably fast ground that produces these record times aided and abetted by decent horses and the occasional tail wind.
    Rather obvious, as someone has already said.

    So, the consensus is that a course record time is a function of fast ground, tail wind and a decent horse. That’s fine, I have no problem if that is the case, but what I am interested in is the individual contribution that these three factors make to the record time. Previously I had thought that most of it came from the ability of the horse, now I am much less sure.

    Putting it another way, there is a strong suggestion in the data that virtually any horse, even one of modest ability, is capable of returning a record time under certain, not particularly exceptional, conditions. That is my main point, personally speaking I find that, if true, to be a surprising conclusion. It would then seem to follow that the clock mostly measures ground and other environmental conditions, rather than ability!

    #139517

    Anonymous
    • Total Posts 18146

    JimF

    It is perfectly reasonable for a relatively modest horse to set a course record in the right circumstances, but it would be unusual for one to do it on a track that regularly entertained higher class horses over the same distance, (And of course, in similar circumstances).

    #139518
    Drone
    Drone
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5127

    What are the optimum ‘fast’ conditions on turf for a Flat horse to run ‘fastest’ (ignoring wind)?

    Good-Firm rolled going (level) with a carpet of lush, mown, dense, manicured summer-grass growth allowing shock-absorbance, traction and sure-footed confidence (hoof can make a ‘print’)

    Firm worn, rutted-and-filled going with a sparser, less healthy grass cover due to suffering the rigours of a prolonged drought and intermittent artificial watering: ‘rattling’ fast ground with little shock-absorbance, limited traction and hoof ‘slippage’ leading to a reluctance of horses to ‘let themselves down’

    I’d contend (though have no proof) the Good-Firm scenario. So the throwaway statement ‘the faster the going the faster the time’ may not actually be wholly true.

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