The Grand National final on 11 April is already forming a clear narrative. Iroko is the name dominating discussion, backed by last year’s fourth-place finish and a profile that fits what most expect from a contender at Aintree. The attention is justified, but it also feels familiar.
That pattern is reflected in the Grand National betting odds. I Am Maximus heads the market at 9/1, with Iroko and Grangeclare West close behind at 10/1, while Jagwar sits slightly off the pace at 11/1. Further down, Haiti Couleurs and Johnnywho are priced at 16/1, showing how the market is grouping around established names rather than shifting toward emerging form.
The problem is that the Grand National rarely follows the market’s script. The race has moved on, becoming more dependent on timing, progression, and how a horse arrives in the final weeks of the season.Viewed through that lens, the focus on Iroko starts to look misplaced. Jagwar, not Iroko, fits the race as it stands now.
Iroko is the headline but not the answer
Iroko’s position in the market is easy to understand. He finished fourth in last year’s Grand National and returns with a manageable weight of 11st 1lb. That combination keeps him firmly in the conversation heading into the final.
However, the key issue lies in progression. Last year represented a near-perfect opportunity. He travelled well, handled the fences, and was given every chance to win.
Despite that, he could not match the finishing strength of the leading trio, all trained by Willie Mullins. Returning this year requires improvement under tougher conditions, not a repeat of that run.
His recent form adds further concern. A below-par performance at Cheltenham disrupted the narrative that he would arrive at Aintree in peak condition.
In modern Nationals, momentum matters. Horses that peak late in the season consistently outperform those trying to recover form. Iroko still fits the profile of a contender. He does not fit the profile of a winner.
I Am Maximus sets the standard but carries the burden
At the top of the weights, I Am Maximus once again shapes the race. The 2024 Grand National winner carries 11st 12lb, the same burden that has historically prevented top weights from winning since Red Rum in 1974.
His record demands respect. He finished second last year between stablemates Nick Rockett and Grangeclare West, delivering one of the strongest performances seen in the race in recent years. A second victory would place him among a rare group of multiple winners and potentially mark the highest-rated modern success.
However, the weight remains a defining factor. Carrying 11st 12lb over four miles at Aintree requires a near-perfect race. Even with class on his side, the margin for error is minimal. The final stages of the National consistently expose horses carrying that level of weight, particularly when the pace lifts after the second circuit.
Why Jagwar fits the modern Grand National profile
This is where Jagwar enters the picture. Unlike Iroko, Jagwar arrives with momentum. His Cheltenham Festival performance, finishing second in the Ultima, stands out as one of the most relevant pieces of recent form. That race has increasingly become a key stepping stone to Aintree, producing horses capable of handling both distance and pressure.
Jagwar’s profile aligns closely with recent trends. He is lightly raced enough to suggest further improvement, yet experienced enough to handle a race of this nature. His stamina credentials are already proven, and his running style suggests he can cover a large field efficiently without wasting energy.
Crucially, he sits in the ideal weight range. Not burdened like I Am Maximus, but carrying enough to reflect genuine class, Jagwar falls into the bracket that has produced many modern National winners.
The middle-weight zone is where the race is decided
The evolution of the Grand National has shifted the focus toward horses rated in the mid-to-high range of the handicap. Last year’s results reinforced that trend, with high-quality chasers dominating the finish.
Horses like Grangeclare West and Haiti Couleurs also fit this model. Both combine proven stamina with strong recent performances, placing them firmly within the group that can capitalise if the race unfolds correctly.
However, Jagwar stands out in this category for its timing. His Cheltenham run confirms he is peaking now, not earlier in the season. That distinction is critical. The Grand National is not a race where horses can build toward form. It rewards those who arrive ready.
How the final at Aintree will play out
The 2026 Grand National final is expected to be tactical, despite the size of the field. The reduced 34-runner format has changed how the race develops, placing greater emphasis on positioning and rhythm.
Early leaders often struggle to maintain their advantage, particularly after the second circuit, when the field begins to stretch. Horses that conserve energy and travel comfortably tend to move into contention approaching the final fences.
This race shape suits Jagwar. His ability to sit off the pace, jump efficiently, and finish strongly aligns with how recent Nationals have been won. He does not need to dominate early. He needs to stay within striking distance and respond when the race begins to break apart.