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Looking at the numbers…
As at August 1st;
19 x Group 1 Races
13 x winners followed all trends27 x Group 2 Races
23 x winners followed all trends37 x Group 3 Races
18 x winners followed all trends20 x Heritage Handicap Races
5 x winners followed all trendsI had forgotten all about this thread. Out of curiosity I will go through all Class 2 Heritage Handicap races so far this season to see how things would have fared…
(Race maximum coverage is 8 runners)2nd April: The Lincoln
8 followed all trends of the 22 runners, 8 x £1 win bets + 8 x £3 place bets, total of £32
Birdman placed 3 x £4.60 = £13.80
Race gave £18.20 loss4th May: Chester Cup
6 followed all trends of the 17 runners, 6 x £1 win bets + 6 x £3 place bets, total of £24
No Heretic (SP 11/1) Win paid £12.90 place paid 3 x £3.70 = £11.70
Nakeeta placed 3 x £4.80 = £14.40
Gabrial The Hero placed 3 x £2.70 = £8.10
Race gave £23.10 profit
Running Total = £4.90 profit7th May: Victoria Cup
7 followed all trends of the 26 runners, 7 x £1 win bets + 7 x £3 place bets, total of £28
None of the 7 made the frame
Race gave £28.00 loss
Running Total = £23.10 loss21st May: Silver Bowl Stakes
3 followed all trends of the 13 runners, 3 x £1 win bets + 3 x £3 place bets, total of £12
Garcia (SP 7/2) Win paid £4.10 place paid 3 x £2.00 = £10.10
Chief Whip placeed 3 x £2.10 = £6.30
Race gave £4.40 profit
Running Total = £18.70 loss4th June: Epsom “Dash”
2 followed all trends of the 17 runners, 2 x £1 win bets + 2 x £3 place bets, total of £8
Kimberella placed 3 x £2.90 = £8.70
Chief Whip placed 3 x £2.80 = £8.40
Race gave £9.10 profit
Running Total = £9.60 loss4th June: Edinburgh Cup
3 followed all trends of the 13 runners, 3 x £1 win bets + 3 x £3 place bets, total of £12
Regal Monarch placed 3 x £2.00 = £6.00
Race gave £6.00 loss
Running Total = £15.60 loss11th June: Scottish Sprint Cup
8 followed all trends of the 17 runners, 8 x £1 win bets + 8 x £3 place bets, total of £32
Hoofalong (SP 16/1) Win paid £19.70 place paid 3 x £3.70 = £11.10
Kimberella placed 3 x £2.40 = £7.20
Race gave £6.00 profit
Running Total = £9.60 loss11th June: Charity Sprint Trophy
16 followed all trends of the 20 runners, too many to cover.
Running Total = £9.60 loss15th June: Royal Hunt Cup
4 followed all trends of the 18 runners, 4 x £1 win bets + 4 x £3 place bets, total of £16
Librisa Breeze placed 3 x £2.40 = £7.20
Race gave £8.80 loss
Running Total = £18.40 loss16th June: Britannia Stakes
12 followed all trends of the 28 runners, too many to cover.
Running Total = £18.40 loss18th June: Wokingham Stakes
8 followed all trends of the 29 runners, 8 x £1 win bets + 8 x £3 place bets, total of £32
Brando placed 3 x £2.60 = £7.80
Glen Moss placed 3 x £12.00 = £36.00
Race gave £11.80 profit
Running Total = £6.60 loss25th June: Northumberland Plate
11 followed all trends of the 20, too many to cover.
Running Total = £6.60 loss2nd July: Old Newton Cup
7 followed all trends of the 17 runners, 7 x £1 win bets + 7 x £3 place bets, total of £28
Gold Prince placed 3 x £4.90 = £14.70
Snoana placed 3 x £3.30 = £9.90
Race gave £3.40 loss
Running Total = £10.00 loss2nd July: Old Newton Cup
None followed all the trends, no bets.
Running Total = £10.00 loss7th July: Betfred Mobile Handicap
5 followed all trends of the 20 runners, 5 x £1 win bets + 5 x £3 place bets, total of £20
No returns
Race gave £20.00 loss
Running Total = £30.00 loss9th July: Bunbury Cup
6 followed all trends of the 16 runners, 6 x £1 win bets + 6 x £3 place bets, total of £24
Heaven’s Guest placed 3 x £2.20 = £6.60
Race gave £17.40 loss
Running Total = £47.40 loss9th July: John Smith’s Cup
6 followed all trends of the 19 runners, 6 x £1 win bets + 6 x £3 place bets, total of £24
Gold Trail placed 3 x £3.80 = £11.40
Race gave £12.60 loss
Running Total = £60.00 loss23rd July: International Stakes
2 followed all trends of the 26 runners, 2 x £1 win bets + 2 x £3 place bets, total of £8
No returns
Race gave £8.00 loss
Running Total = £68.00 loss29th July: Betfred Mile
15 followed all trends of the 19, too many to cover.
Running Total = £68.00 loss30th July: Stewards Cup
15 followed all trends of the 27, too many to cover.
Running Total = £68.00 lossFrom a trends perspective it seems that the winner is a proven horse that has already won over the distance.
11 of the last 12 winners had carried at least 9-1 and all 12 had already won a 7 furlong race. Of the 20 for today this just leaves 8…
Heaven’ Guest
Emell
Majestic Moon
Glorious Empire
Farlow
B Fity Two
Buststay
Flash FireAll 8 have won a Class 2 Handicap already with Heaven’s Guest winning a Listed race as well (at Naas).
If the going is to be noted Emell and Glorious Empire have not yet won on Good to Firm. The draw doesn’t seem to through up any clues, so of the 6 remaining I am going for Majestic Moon who has won twice from 4 runs on the going at Newmarket’s July Course.
Small each way at 28s.
Good luck with your bets.
Not for me as he doesn’t follow the trends…
All of the last 11 have won one or both of their previous 2 races.
Good luck with your bets though.
“…Those traders they have aren’t the brightest, I was looking at a horse at the start the other day, he threw the jockey off twice and wouldn’t go in the stalls twice, any fool could see he wasn’t going to take part but those thick traders thought his behaviour would increase his chances of running and winning, because they cut his price, they must have felt foolish a minute later when he was withdrawn and then had to cut all the others prices. …”
It doesn’t matter who said it, but surely this is clever rather than stupid.
If the price shortens then the deduction is higher, meaning less payout. Or have I got it my ass and elbow mixed up?
The trends are maintained…
All of the previous 17 winners had an SP of 7/1 or shorter – 13/2 (tick)
21 of the previous 22 winners had won one or both of their last 2 races – win win (tick)
All of the previous 22 winners had finished in the first 3 places in their last race – win (tick)Only 3 followed those trends – 1st 2nd + 4th.
Keep smiling, there’s always next time.
I don’t think that this year’s Derby is as Open as people might be thinking, 21 of the last 22 winners had won one or both of their previous 2 races, 7 horses this year fail on that trend. Another 2 drop off by not finishing in the first 3 places in their previous race, whereas all of the last 22 winners had done that. The last 17 winners have all had an SP of 8/1 or shorter, so keeping an eye on the odds might be a good thing and could reduce the final “trends list” to 2, 3 or 4.
I’m going for Cloth Of Stars each way, a question mark of whether he will get the distance but has been consistent and done well on a softer surface. Watching yesterday I got the feeling that it was quite wet around Tatt’s Corner and he could have the ability to make his move while others try to navigate the slippery surface.
If you’re backing each way, remember to shop around but be careful with some of the offers, i.e. first 5 places only pays 1/5th of the odds for a place whereas other pay a quarter for first 4. A tenner each way on a placed horse at 10/1 pays back £30 for 1/5th or £35 for a quarter odds. (The win part pays the same)
Good luck
Oops !! I meant first 3 places paying 1/4 or first 4 places paying 1/5th.
I don’t think that this year’s Derby is as Open as people might be thinking, 21 of the last 22 winners had won one or both of their previous 2 races, 7 horses this year fail on that trend. Another 2 drop off by not finishing in the first 3 places in their previous race, whereas all of the last 22 winners had done that. The last 17 winners have all had an SP of 8/1 or shorter, so keeping an eye on the odds might be a good thing and could reduce the final “trends list” to 2, 3 or 4.
I’m going for Cloth Of Stars each way, a question mark of whether he will get the distance but has been consistent and done well on a softer surface. Watching yesterday I got the feeling that it was quite wet around Tatt’s Corner and he could have the ability to make his move while others try to navigate the slippery surface.
If you’re backing each way, remember to shop around but be careful with some of the offers, i.e. first 5 places only pays 1/5th of the odds for a place whereas other pay a quarter for first 4. A tenner each way on a placed horse at 10/1 pays back £30 for 1/5th or £35 for a quarter odds. (The win part pays the same)
Good luck
Another season draws to a close, it’s been fun.
Saturday 14th / Sunday 15th May 2016
£4 treble and 3 x £2 doubles on;
Accrington 2/1
Manchester United 2/5
Manchester City 1/2Good luck with your bets !!
Saturday 7th / Sunday 8th May 2016
£4 treble and 3 x £2 doubles on;
Blackburn 7/5 Won
Southampton 27/10 Won
Arsenal 9/5 XGood luck with your bets !!
P&L for Saturday 7th / Sunday 8th May 2016
Treble: no return, giving a £4.00 loss
Doubles: £17.76 return giving a £11.76 profitP&L for the season…
Treble: £43.44 loss
Doubles: £16.87 profit
Overall: £26.57 lossWinner from stall 29
2nd stall 6
3rd stall 2
4th stall 21
5th stall 4
Seems to be something in large handicap fields at Ascot.Would have preferred to see Red Avenger run and lose rather than be scratched – all that wasted analysis ! Pfft !!
Nice darts Raymo !!
Saturday 7th / Sunday 8th May 2016
£4 treble and 3 x £2 doubles on;
Blackburn 7/5
Southampton 27/10
Arsenal 9/5Good luck with your bets !!
Fingers crossed on the Gooners
This race favours the younger generation 4yo-6yo with only Global Village (7yo) in 2012 bucking that trend in the last 12 runnings. 96 has been the highest winning mark for 10 of the last 11 races (Gabrial’s Lad OR was 102 in 2014) and the winner was rated 9lbs-19lbs lower than the top rated horse in 9 of the last 11 runnings.
The draw doesn’t give much in the way of clues except perhaps to say that the “outer edges” tend to be where the winners come from. In the last 6 races the winner race from…
2015: Stall 23 (of 26)
2014: Stall 25 (of 25)
2013: Stall 13 (of 26) the odd one out
2012: Stall 2 (of 24)
2011: Stall 7 (of 28)
2010: Stall 21 (of 29)Taking the above into account it leaves the following 6…
Red Avenger (stall 27)
Related (stall 1)
Mullionheir (stall 26)
Supersta (stall 20)
Free Code (stall 24)
Mr Bossy Boots (stall 22)Picking winners in handicap fields is more luck than judgement in my opinion, so I am going for one that I think stands a good chance of a place at big odds.
Red Avenger (50/1) has won 4 and finished 2nd 3 times on Good to Firm so likes the ground, but has yet to place in a race at Ascot having run 4 times before. He moved from Ed Dunlop’s yard to Gary Moore so it will be interesting to see if that has made any improvement. Gary Moore puts up a 5lb claimer on board today which effectively brings him down to 5lb below his previous highest winning mark of 96, when winning the BetFred Mile at Goodwood a couple of seasons ago.
Just a small e/w interest for me.
Good luck with your bets !!
Saturday 7th / Sunday 8th May 2016
£4 treble and 3 x £2 doubles on;
Blackburn 7/5
Southampton 27/10
Arsenal 9/5Good luck with your bets !!
Saturday 30th April / Sunday 1st May 2016
£4 treble and 3 x £2 doubles on;
Newcastle 10/11 Won
Sheffield Wednesday (draw) 12/5 X
Burton 21/20 WonGood luck with your bets !!
P&L for Saturday 30th April / Sunday 1st May 2016
Treble: no return, giving a £4.00 loss
Doubles: £7.83 return giving a £1.83 profitP&L for the season…
Treble: £39.44 loss
Doubles: £5.11 profit (adjusted by £0.11 as I noticed a mistake)
Overall: £34.33 lossSaturday 30th April / Sunday 1st May 2016
£4 treble and 3 x £2 doubles on;
Newcastle 10/11
Sheffield Wednesday (draw) 12/5
Burton 21/20Good luck with your bets !!
Friday/Saturday 22nd/23rd April 2016
£4 treble and 3 x £2 doubles on;
Burnley 21/20 Won
Walsall 9/4 X
Northampton 23/20 XGood luck with your bets !!
P&L for Friday/Saturday April 22nd/23rd
Treble: no return, giving a £4.00 loss
Doubles: no return giving a £6.00 lossP&L for the season…
Treble: £35.44 loss
Doubles: £3.39 profit
Overall: £32.05 loss
