Following Trends – Is it worth it ?

[trendyrich]

trendyrich wrote:

The Challenge Cup at Ascot (3:45);

…

I just realised that somehow I have managed to miss out Jallota who follows all 4 trends as well.

So total stakes for the Challenge Cup now £24.

[trendyrich]

The Challenge Cup – Result;

Gabriel’s Lad – 2nd, place returned £11.70
Tanzeel – 15th
Tatlisu – 12th
Master Universe – 7th
Majestic Moon – 10th
Jallota – 9th

Stakes: £24.00
Returns: £11.70

Overall P&L: -£16.30 loss
Challenge Cup: -£12.30 loss
Cambridgeshire: +£5.60 profit
Fred Darling: +£14.40 profit
Portland Handicap: -£24.00 loss

[trendyrich]

The Cesarewitch;

3 trends for this race…
1). 8 of the last 9 winners had an Official Rating in the range 87-98.
2). 7 of the last 8 winners had a previous best win Official Rating in the range 82-88.
3). 9 of the last 11 winners had already wona race on the same going*.
*based on Good to Soft

Only 4 follow all the above trends…
High Secret
Rite To Reign
One More Go
Steve Rogers

Stakes
4 x £1 win bets and 4 x £3 places bets = £16

Good luck with your bets !!
September 19, 2015 at 14:11

[trendyrich]

trendyrich wrote:

The Cesarewitch;

3 trends for this race…
1). 8 of the last 9 winners had an Official Rating in the range 87-98.
2). 7 of the last 8 winners had a previous best win Official Rating in the range 82-88.
3). 9 of the last 11 winners had already wona race on the same going*.
*based on Good to Soft

Only 4 follow all the above trends…
High Secret
Rite To Reign
One More Go
Steve Rogers

Stakes
4 x £1 win bets and 4 x £3 places bets = £16

Good luck with your bets !!
September 19, 2015 at 14:11

Going change from Good to Soft to now being Good means that the list changes to
High Secret
One More Go
Moscato
Saved By The Bell
Norab
Gavlar
Communicator

[trendyrich]

trendyrich wrote:

trendyrich wrote:

The Cesarewitch;

3 trends for this race…
1). 8 of the last 9 winners had an Official Rating in the range 87-98.
2). 7 of the last 8 winners had a previous best win Official Rating in the range 82-88.
3). 9 of the last 11 winners had already wona race on the same going*.
*based on Good to Soft

Only 4 follow all the above trends…
High Secret
Rite To Reign
One More Go
Steve Rogers

Stakes
4 x £1 win bets and 4 x £3 places bets = £16

Good luck with your bets !!
September 19, 2015 at 14:11

Going change from Good to Soft to now being Good means that the list changes to
High Secret
One More Go
Moscato
Saved By The Bell
Norab
Gavlar
Communicator

Hectic couple of weeks, as I have relocated down to South East Asia and there has been plenty of reasons to stop me updating my website and here. Things are not quite “back to normal” but hopefully things have now settled down a bit.

Result for The Cesarewitch;
High Secret – 23rd
One More Go – 12th
Moscato – 7th
Saved By The Bell – 24th
Norab – 29th
Gavlar – 13th
Communicator – 8th

7 x £4 staked with no return = £28 loss

Overall P&L: -£44.30 loss
Cesrarewitch: -£28.00 loss
Challenge Cup: -£12.30 loss
Cambridgeshire: +£5.60 profit
Fred Darling: +£14.40 profit
Portland Handicap: -£24.00 loss

As I posted the going change late, I will take the hit but ordinarily there were too many horses in the final listing.

No races for this weekend (Oct 17th/18th).

Good luck with your bets !!

[trendyrich]

I had forgotten all about this thread. Out of curiosity I will go through all Class 2 Heritage Handicap races so far this season to see how things would have fared…
(Race maximum coverage is 8 runners)

2nd April: The Lincoln
8 followed all trends of the 22 runners, 8 x £1 win bets + 8 x £3 place bets, total of £32
Birdman placed 3 x £4.60 = £13.80
Race gave £18.20 loss

4th May: Chester Cup
6 followed all trends of the 17 runners, 6 x £1 win bets + 6 x £3 place bets, total of £24
No Heretic (SP 11/1) Win paid £12.90 place paid 3 x £3.70 = £11.70
Nakeeta placed 3 x £4.80 = £14.40
Gabrial The Hero placed 3 x £2.70 = £8.10
Race gave £23.10 profit
Running Total = £4.90 profit

7th May: Victoria Cup
7 followed all trends of the 26 runners, 7 x £1 win bets + 7 x £3 place bets, total of £28
None of the 7 made the frame
Race gave £28.00 loss
Running Total = £23.10 loss

21st May: Silver Bowl Stakes
3 followed all trends of the 13 runners, 3 x £1 win bets + 3 x £3 place bets, total of £12
Garcia (SP 7/2) Win paid £4.10 place paid 3 x £2.00 = £10.10
Chief Whip placeed 3 x £2.10 = £6.30
Race gave £4.40 profit
Running Total = £18.70 loss

4th June: Epsom “Dash”
2 followed all trends of the 17 runners, 2 x £1 win bets + 2 x £3 place bets, total of £8
Kimberella placed 3 x £2.90 = £8.70
Chief Whip placed 3 x £2.80 = £8.40
Race gave £9.10 profit
Running Total = £9.60 loss

4th June: Edinburgh Cup
3 followed all trends of the 13 runners, 3 x £1 win bets + 3 x £3 place bets, total of £12
Regal Monarch placed 3 x £2.00 = £6.00
Race gave £6.00 loss
Running Total = £15.60 loss

11th June: Scottish Sprint Cup
8 followed all trends of the 17 runners, 8 x £1 win bets + 8 x £3 place bets, total of £32
Hoofalong (SP 16/1) Win paid £19.70 place paid 3 x £3.70 = £11.10
Kimberella placed 3 x £2.40 = £7.20
Race gave £6.00 profit
Running Total = £9.60 loss

11th June: Charity Sprint Trophy
16 followed all trends of the 20 runners, too many to cover.
Running Total = £9.60 loss

15th June: Royal Hunt Cup
4 followed all trends of the 18 runners, 4 x £1 win bets + 4 x £3 place bets, total of £16
Librisa Breeze placed 3 x £2.40 = £7.20
Race gave £8.80 loss
Running Total = £18.40 loss

16th June: Britannia Stakes
12 followed all trends of the 28 runners, too many to cover.
Running Total = £18.40 loss

18th June: Wokingham Stakes
8 followed all trends of the 29 runners, 8 x £1 win bets + 8 x £3 place bets, total of £32
Brando placed 3 x £2.60 = £7.80
Glen Moss placed 3 x £12.00 = £36.00
Race gave £11.80 profit
Running Total = £6.60 loss

25th June: Northumberland Plate
11 followed all trends of the 20, too many to cover.
Running Total = £6.60 loss

2nd July: Old Newton Cup
7 followed all trends of the 17 runners, 7 x £1 win bets + 7 x £3 place bets, total of £28
Gold Prince placed 3 x £4.90 = £14.70
Snoana placed 3 x £3.30 = £9.90
Race gave £3.40 loss
Running Total = £10.00 loss

2nd July: Old Newton Cup
None followed all the trends, no bets.
Running Total = £10.00 loss

7th July: Betfred Mobile Handicap
5 followed all trends of the 20 runners, 5 x £1 win bets + 5 x £3 place bets, total of £20
No returns
Race gave £20.00 loss
Running Total = £30.00 loss

9th July: Bunbury Cup
6 followed all trends of the 16 runners, 6 x £1 win bets + 6 x £3 place bets, total of £24
Heaven’s Guest placed 3 x £2.20 = £6.60
Race gave £17.40 loss
Running Total = £47.40 loss

9th July: John Smith’s Cup
6 followed all trends of the 19 runners, 6 x £1 win bets + 6 x £3 place bets, total of £24
Gold Trail placed 3 x £3.80 = £11.40
Race gave £12.60 loss
Running Total = £60.00 loss

23rd July: International Stakes
2 followed all trends of the 26 runners, 2 x £1 win bets + 2 x £3 place bets, total of £8
No returns
Race gave £8.00 loss
Running Total = £68.00 loss

29th July: Betfred Mile
15 followed all trends of the 19, too many to cover.
Running Total = £68.00 loss

30th July: Stewards Cup
15 followed all trends of the 27, too many to cover.
Running Total = £68.00 loss

[trendyrich]

Looking at the numbers…

As at August 1st;
19 x Group 1 Races
13 x winners followed all trends

27 x Group 2 Races
23 x winners followed all trends

37 x Group 3 Races
18 x winners followed all trends

20 x Heritage Handicap Races
5 x winners followed all trends

[Author]

Posts