[Theo2013]

Nearly backed MUNTAHA too this game can be an absolute killer

[Theo2013]

I’m done with backing horses after a lay off!!

[Theo2013]

How disappointing was double up it’s been a difficult start to the season for me to say the least.

Looked at the John Porter

In a sense you can link CHEMICAL CHARGE, CRIMEAN TATAR and MUNTAHA on form CHEMICAL CHARGE is 4lb better off to CRIMEAN TATAR for half a length and in turn MUNTAHA iS 8lb better off with chemical charge for 3 3/4 lengths but should of been closer if CROWLEY didn’t make a hash of it and go for home with 4 furlongs to go, I think DAL HARRILD won’t make it with this company. I don’t know if Crimean Tatar has improved but he was quite a small Colt last year. MIDTERM could be a backable price at nearly 3/1 now, he ran with better company than all these last year.

MIDTERM
MUNTAHA
CHEMICAL CHARGE

It’s a tight looking race I need to leave it alone! But then midterm will probably win

[Theo2013]

Good luck with DOUBLE UP he’s going to be hard to beat good price 2/1

[Theo2013]

Newmarket 2:25

The fit SALETEEN is going to take some pinning back tomorrow from the front with no other confirmed front runner
no head wind and I’m happy to take 4.0 on betfair for £210. Tabarakks form isn’t stacking up to me and been off the racecourse for a full year only horse i could see spoiling it is MIX AND MINGLE

3:00

BRANDO obviously has the best form on offer but 5/4 i cannot bet at that price, not much room for value on his first run of the season on firmer ground than his ideal so just a saver

AEOLUS may go un fancied here, he needs this ground to show his best and should be the one to pick it up if BRANDO isn’t 100% also TASLEET could run well

main bet though AEOLUS @ ??

CRAVEN STAKES i thought was one to not touch with a barge pole until i seen WAR DECREE’S beautiful
action not sure 9/4 screams value but he will be right there tomorrow and i like this horse a lot , RIVETS group 1 form hasn’t exactly been made to look like a great group 1 and the maiden winner will have to do well to win this with less experience as the other i think that form looks stronger than it really is.

£250 WAR DECREE 9/4
saver LARCHMONT LAD @ 9/2

[Theo2013]

3:00 Newmarket
£80 VIRENS ARMY trying to get 7.60 matched
£30 FOLKSWOOD @ 3.95
£20 STEEL OF MADRID @ 16/1 WINNER

The two Appleby horses coming off wins clear on ratings and benefiting from two recent runs
a little concerned VIRENS ARMY had the run of his last race and looks flatted. STEEL OF MADRID hasn’t had a lot fall into place last year and is a good price.

[Theo2013]

Theo2013 wrote:

Theo2013 wrote:

4:25 Fairyhouse

SUTTON PLACE is worth taking on here as an odds on fav with DE PLOTTING SHED who is 5lbs better off and should be better on this sounder surface trying to get 10.5 E/W matched on betfair.

saver whiteout he’s gonna out run his odds here

RENNETTI won well i had £58 on DE PLOTTING SHED @ 9.5/1 before the rule 4

Newmarket 4:05 get on it now currently a 98% best book

APEX KING for me £75 E/W @ 13/2 (PP)

[Theo2013]

Theo2013 wrote:

4:25 Fairyhouse

SUTTON PLACE is worth taking on here as an odds on fav with DE PLOTTING SHED who is 5lbs better off and should be better on this sounder surface trying to get 10.5 E/W matched on betfair.

saver whiteout he’s gonna out run his odds here

[Theo2013]

4:25 Fairyhouse

SUTTON PLACE is worth taking on here as an odds on fav with DE PLOTTING SHED who is 5lbs better off and should be better on this sounder surface trying to get 10.5 E/W matched on betfair.

[Theo2013]

2:15 FAIRYHOUSE

2m hurdle

Really fancy PROJECT BLUEBOOK on this ground £135 @ 4/1 WINNER

[Theo2013]

Brilliant post Joni. Thanks for taking the time out to write that, it’s much appreciated!
I had more discipline a couple of years ago when I made the thread ‘a disciplined approach’ a bit simple but the title kept reminding me! I never bettered on the shorties on it, well actually <4/1 and if I thought the prices were right I.e not much value I wouldn’t bet. Looking back I had some silly bets yesterday, The gallops reports, great thanks a lot never heard of them sites before! Cheers mate.

[Theo2013]

Watersmeet ran an absolute cracker it looked a decent pace to the eye and he stayed on very well. Winning story definitly stepped his form up today, I gave up on him when I had him a few runs back at 5/1 and ran no kind of race suroor always seems to be on fire. It’s a funny game and keeping faith in what you do is very hard when bad times hit. 2 out of 3 definitly can’t grumble with that Jac, top betting kicking myself over SOVEREIGN DEBT though 8/1! Not sure a £400 bet would be going on CONVEY again though massively talented but still obviously temperamental judging by today’s run.

Sam

[Theo2013]

Me too haha

PRINCE OF ARRAn was just too far behind throughout the marathon

Felt MUFFRIHA was a bad luck story with the dwell and being boxed in he really wanted to make all

Thought TOMILY had nabbed it at one point! VISIONARY I mentioned ran well too.

SOVEREIGN DEBT bloody hindsight hey! Great price

WILLYTHECONQUERER was POOR MUTHMIR didn’t even look in fine shape in the paddock

And then there’s good old CONVEY he was very keen and I thought he was going to throw it away but what a brute he’s turned out to be. THIRD TIME LUCKY didn’t half run a cracker.

Got most of my money back on LANCELOT DU LAC

These tight tracks can be heartbreaking

[Theo2013]

Phew I don’t have to retire

[Theo2013]

Terrible day riding all out on convey here come on Moore

[Theo2013]

Thanks Jac good luck to you too

might aswell have a bet in every Lingfield race!

1:40 i’m liking SUZIS CONNOISSEUR

£50 E/W @ 12/1

BATH 3:00

MIDTECH STAR is running on an eye-catching mark compared to his AW rating but his turf from is terrible
so the chance is with ICEBUSTER @ 4/1 if the bet gets matched

[Theo2013]

A/W finals day and a bet for Bath

MARATHON FINAL happy with this bet step up in trip is written all over this powerful looking PRINCE OF ARRAN who found only the smart sea the stars horses CRIMEAN TATER And CHEMICAL CHARGE to good at kempton
not a strong marathon final and he can take this at a very fair price. natural scenery was impressive at Newcastle when stepped up in trip

£66.67 E/W (max allowed) PRINCE OF ARRAN @ 9/1

FILLIES AND MARES FINAL

ASHADIHAN might not get up in this, she’s a monster of a horse and can take a bit of pushing to keep in touch and i think MUFFRIHA
is speedier and definitely the one to beat making all from stall 1 coming back from a 9f is a slight concern but not a strong race this.

£200 MUFFRIHA @ 2.40

SPRINT FINAL i was going to leave this one alone PRETEND has his quirks and stall 12 is a problem so too short to take, MYTHMAKER will probably be bang there but will find one too good yet again LANCELOT DU LAC looked sweaty last time out and ran round the outside to get on top. He doesn’t have to lead and usually runs his race

Tentative bet in this blanket finish

£100 E/W LANCELOT DU LAC @ 4/1 (4 places)

MILE FINAL

£200 ENAADD @ 7/4 was cantering against SOVEREIGN DEBT although he was up with the strong pace earlier than ENAAD and has a pull at the weights and recent run, a tad worried about this bet.

3y/o sprint final

I have left this alone for now i couldn’t get my head around it for ages SUTTER COUNTY does have cruising speed but just lacks something at the finish will be bang there from stall 1 and could be the E/W bet with also VISIONARY who got beat by the former in a slowly ran race at Lingfield when visionary was held up and couldn’t make up the ground off the slow pace. I think they have the favourite right but TOMILY looks the most suited to this fast surface stiff track and i think he’s the one to be on at the prices.

EASTER CLASSIC I put my ante post bet up for this last week and added more to it.

ABSOLUTE BLAST i was happy to see in stall 9 her winning this would be a right kick in the testes!!!
as i I’ve got £400 one CONVEY @ 11/4 £100 on GRENDISAR from last year @ 5/1 and battalion @ 8/1 to win £200
but mainly because i had £800 on ABSOLUTE BLAST at EVE’s at the start of the year in a much much weaker race were the went off odds on and she dwelt massively, held off a slow pace and rattled home to not get up.

also got a big (for me) £50 4 way E/W accumulator on but with NATURAL SCENERY instead of PRINCE OF ARRAN in the marathon before i gave it more of an in depth study.

BATH 4:00

WILLYTHECONQUERER has been crying out for further! and his odds with MUTHMIR is too much of a discrepancy IMO

MUTHMIR should get the trip but is very short and who knows how he is now

WINDFAST will like the ground and trip but got a lot to do with these weights

MR LUPTON come from behind merchant best seen in big big fields can’t bet at the odds

EQUIMOU big pull at the weights will love the ground she’s quirky… step up in trip doesn’t look like a good choice to me, hard puller speedy type has weakened a few time over 5f not sure about the extended 6f looks like a proper 5f speed merchant to my eyes

£100 WILLYTHECONQUERER @ 13/2

short reasonings but in a bit of a rush to go and have some breakfast out

GOOD LUCK EVERYONE

if i don’t have a good day i may have to retire

[Author]

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