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A/W finals day and a bet for Bath
MARATHON FINAL happy with this bet step up in trip is written all over this powerful looking PRINCE OF ARRAN who found only the smart sea the stars horses CRIMEAN TATER And CHEMICAL CHARGE to good at kempton
not a strong marathon final and he can take this at a very fair price. natural scenery was impressive at Newcastle when stepped up in trip£66.67 E/W (max allowed) PRINCE OF ARRAN @ 9/1
FILLIES AND MARES FINAL
ASHADIHAN might not get up in this, she’s a monster of a horse and can take a bit of pushing to keep in touch and i think MUFFRIHA
is speedier and definitely the one to beat making all from stall 1 coming back from a 9f is a slight concern but not a strong race this.£200 MUFFRIHA @ 2.40
SPRINT FINAL i was going to leave this one alone PRETEND has his quirks and stall 12 is a problem so too short to take, MYTHMAKER will probably be bang there but will find one too good yet again LANCELOT DU LAC looked sweaty last time out and ran round the outside to get on top. He doesn’t have to lead and usually runs his race
Tentative bet in this blanket finish
£100 E/W LANCELOT DU LAC @ 4/1 (4 places)
MILE FINAL
£200 ENAADD @ 7/4 was cantering against SOVEREIGN DEBT although he was up with the strong pace earlier than ENAAD and has a pull at the weights and recent run, a tad worried about this bet.
3y/o sprint final
I have left this alone for now i couldn’t get my head around it for ages
SUTTER COUNTY does have cruising speed but just lacks something at the finish will be bang there from stall 1 and could be the E/W bet with also VISIONARY who got beat by the former in a slowly ran race at Lingfield when visionary was held up and couldn’t make up the ground off the slow pace. I think they have the favourite right but TOMILY looks the most suited to this fast surface stiff track and i think he’s the one to be on at the prices.EASTER CLASSIC I put my ante post bet up for this last week and added more to it.
ABSOLUTE BLAST i was happy to see in stall 9 her winning this would be a right kick in the testes!!!
as i I’ve got £400 one CONVEY @ 11/4 £100 on GRENDISAR from last year @ 5/1 and battalion @ 8/1 to win £200
but mainly because i had £800 on ABSOLUTE BLAST at EVE’s at the start of the year in a much much weaker race were the went off odds on and she dwelt massively, held off a slow pace and rattled home to not get up.also got a big (for me) £50 4 way E/W accumulator on but with NATURAL SCENERY instead of PRINCE OF ARRAN in the marathon before i gave it more of an in depth study.
BATH 4:00
WILLYTHECONQUERER has been crying out for further! and his odds with MUTHMIR is too much of a discrepancy IMO
MUTHMIR should get the trip but is very short and who knows how he is now
WINDFAST will like the ground and trip but got a lot to do with these weights
MR LUPTON come from behind merchant best seen in big big fields can’t bet at the odds
EQUIMOU big pull at the weights will love the ground she’s quirky… step up in trip doesn’t look like a good choice to me, hard puller speedy type has weakened a few time over 5f not sure about the extended 6f looks like a proper 5f speed merchant to my eyes
£100 WILLYTHECONQUERER @ 13/2
short reasonings but in a bit of a rush to go and have some breakfast out
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE
if i don’t have a good day i may have to retire
Good luck Theo lots of work gone into your choices. Great Thread
Some of the best AW racing of the season.
I have just a patent going today on..Sovereign Debt (very unlucky last time out one that I follow)
Watersmeet (always trying, he’ll win it or come nowhere)
Convey (could be you’re best bet of the day, Stoute in great form)Could back so many more today but saving up for my 3 days at Newmarket next week.
Hope you give those bookies a bashing today Theo.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Thanks Jac good luck to you too
might aswell have a bet in every Lingfield race!
1:40 i’m liking SUZIS CONNOISSEUR
£50 E/W @ 12/1
BATH 3:00
MIDTECH STAR is running on an eye-catching mark compared to his AW rating but his turf from is terrible
so the chance is with ICEBUSTER @ 4/1 if the bet gets matchedGreat save with CONVEY Theo
Glad your not retiring JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Me too haha
PRINCE OF ARRAn was just too far behind throughout the marathon
Felt MUFFRIHA was a bad luck story with the dwell and being boxed in he really wanted to make all
Thought TOMILY had nabbed it at one point! VISIONARY I mentioned ran well too.
SOVEREIGN DEBT bloody hindsight hey! Great price
WILLYTHECONQUERER was POOR MUTHMIR didn’t even look in fine shape in the paddock
And then there’s good old CONVEY he was very keen and I thought he was going to throw it away but what a brute he’s turned out to be. THIRD TIME LUCKY didn’t half run a cracker.
Got most of my money back on LANCELOT DU LAC
These tight tracks can be heartbreaking
If my selection Watersmeet had had a better draw I’m sure he would have won today, he did a lot of hard work coming round the bend and led the field up the finish only to get nabbed by Winning Story…ahh well 2 out of 3 not bad.
Watching Convey win made it all worth while.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Watersmeet ran an absolute cracker it looked a decent pace to the eye and he stayed on very well. Winning story definitly stepped his form up today, I gave up on him when I had him a few runs back at 5/1 and ran no kind of race suroor always seems to be on fire. It’s a funny game and keeping faith in what you do is very hard when bad times hit. 2 out of 3 definitly can’t grumble with that Jac, top betting
kicking myself over SOVEREIGN DEBT though 8/1! Not sure a £400 bet would be going on CONVEY again though massively talented but still obviously temperamental judging by today’s run.Sam
I wouldn’t give up on Ennaadd, Theo.
He looked very fresh and too keen but will come on for it. The Lockinge looks a tall order and the trainer mentioned the Queen Anne so they must really rate him but I’d be inclined to drop him to 7f for Ascot in the Jersey if he were mine.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Watersmeet ran an absolute cracker it looked a decent pace to the eye and he stayed on very well. Winning story definitly stepped his form up today, I gave up on him when I had him a few runs back at 5/1 and ran no kind of race suroor always seems to be on fire. It’s a funny game and keeping faith in what you do is very hard when bad times hit. 2 out of 3 definitly can’t grumble with that Jac, top betting
kicking myself over SOVEREIGN DEBT though 8/1! Not sure a £400 bet would be going on CONVEY again though massively talented but still obviously temperamental judging by today’s run.Sam
Wouldn’t rule Convey out just yet Theo he seems to have improved a lot since being gelded and Stoute has had 5 out of 12 so far.
Convey was so unlucky just missing out in about 3 races last year and this is the first time he’s had two straight wins to his credit. He obviously thrives on the All Weather having won 3 x times and his only other win was on Good/Firm. Keep him on your side a bit longer and good luck. JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...That last post was still on my computer from yesterday but i bottled putting it on because my losing streak and confidence putting bets up on here. so wrote it up and left the computer without submitting it
i need to keep the faith. It’s stressful tipping on hereWell done with Convey Theo – keep the faith mate! You are right, it can be stressful tipping on here. Every year come October I think “I’m not going through that again!” but then I come back for another year. You put yourself on the line and it can make you look a fool. Believe me, I have been there. Long losing streaks where you start to doubt yourself and it’s made doubly worse because everyone can see it! But I have learnt loads over the 6 years of doing this and have a few tips that I hope you don’t mind me passing on –
1. Stay disciplined. Whatever you do – don’t bet on every race. You can’t possibly win in the long run. It worried me yesterday when you said “might as well have a bet in every race” – that is the way to the poor house. The main reason I do my thread is because it has taught me to be more disciplined. As a kid I would bet on anything and everything and would lose stacks because of it. Even in the earlier years of my thread I wouldn’t post all my bets – only the ones I was most confident about. Now I ONLY bet what I put on here. This is important because I don’t want to look a twat so i try not to put up bets that will make me look a twat.
2. Focus on what you know. I rarely bet on handicaps – I am not clever enough to work them out. I leave that to Tom Segal. I love quality racing and have found that sticking to races where they are generally running off level weights is much easier. So I spend all my research time focussing on stakes races.
3. Read as many gallops reports as you can. I always look at “Talking Horses’, “Catching Pigeons” and buy The Weekender every week and the Racing Post every day. The more insight you can get obviously the better. This also sometimes helps unearth a 2 year old maiden winner. Knowing how they are going at home is really important.
4. Don’t get disheartened by losers Easier said than done but I always remember my dad saying that you can always learn something from a race. He was brilliant at spotting future winners by watching the horse that stayed on into 5th or the one who travelled well but didn’t see it out. Everyone has losing streaks but they just make the winning ones all the better.
5. Trust your instincts – if you believe you have seen a good horse then trust your judgement until proved otherwise. It seems obvious but watching Orderofthegarter win his maiden it was so clear to me that we were watching a group horse that I made a mental note to pile in if he was odds against next time. I had total confidence in my judgement even though I have had my fingers burnt before (we all remember Ectot!!!)
5. Finally – stay humble This game can kick you in the arse or be your best friend. Either way, accept what comes with good grace. Remember everyone on DLAP’s is on your side and wants you to do well. They know that it takes a bit of balls to post your bets on here – many have done it for a little while and given up when they have lost money. If you find your confidence running low, give yourself a break for a week or so and come back fresh. I hope, like me, you do this because you love racing, not because you are a chronic gambler. Keep enjoying the sport and ride your luck when it comes your way!!!Cheers
Joni x
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Great post Jonibake, I know it was aimed at a more experienced punter as a “keep the faith” but also very useful to me as a total novice.
Brilliant post Joni. Thanks for taking the time out to write that, it’s much appreciated!
I had more discipline a couple of years ago when I made the thread ‘a disciplined approach’ a bit simple but the title kept reminding me! I never bettered on the shorties on it, well actually <4/1 and if I thought the prices were right I.e not much value I wouldn’t bet. Looking back I had some silly bets yesterday, The gallops reports, great thanks a lot never heard of them sites before! Cheers mate.Great post Joni
, all that you said is so true and comes with time and experience.I used to bet on every race straight out of the newspaper, never got to see the horse I was betting on. Now I don’t bet every day (never follow newspaper tips) and find that my best bets come from horses that I have seen (not always winners) mostly at Newmarket because that is my local track and being at the paddock is the best place to be to find winners but of course that’s not always possible so have to try to be disciplined.
Love getting hold of the Stables Tours, you sometimes have to read between the lines but lots of trainers drop strong hints about their horses.
The main thing, as Joni says is keep enjoying your racing…as you obviously do.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...2:15 FAIRYHOUSE
2m hurdle
Really fancy PROJECT BLUEBOOK on this ground £135 @ 4/1 WINNER
Jac
i need to keep the faith. It’s stressful tipping on here
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