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Great stuff with Jepeck Bobby. Between that and Tornado Flyer been a great few weeks for you, long may it continue
Thanks Bobby and Nathan, good to be back again for what looks an exciting spring of jumps racing.
Ginto won in impressive style making giving me a good start. He is an extremely likeable horse, loved the way he did it, there may be quicker horses in the Ballymore but he will be a player nonetheless, especially if it comes up soft. He looks tailormade for the likes of an Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown in the future.
I have placed my first Cheltenham bet of the thread now on a horse I fear will not run where I want him to. I don’t usually like backing ante post when I’m unsure of the target but the race looks perfect for the horse and the price is too good to pass on.
Stattler at 25/1 for the Turners Novices Chase over 2m 4f on the Thursday is the bet. I struggle to understand the desire to see him stepped up in trip for the RSA or even the National Hunt Chase for which he is favourite. He is a strong travelling sort who has looked a weak finished over staying trips on a number of occasions now:
– over 2m 6f at Leopardstown last year he had all bar Gaillard Du Mesnil in trouble turning in before getting caught for second by Gentlemansgame (a horse I think has a big future)
– in the Albert Bartlett he again travelled well, before getting caught a bit short for room 2 out, where he landed in fifth, before showing a good turn of foot to go second on the run to the last, and again flattened out on the run in
– a similar story at Punchestown where he travelled well and most of the field in trouble on the turn in (with the exception of brilliant winner Galopin Des Champs), and was again outstayed by Gentlemansgame for secondHe put in an excellent display over 2m 6f to get his season rolling and given how well he travels I feel he is wasted over the longer trip and could improve for stepping back to 2m 4f. The intermediate distance looks a weaker race also, for all that Bob Olinger is favourite, as the trio of Galopin Des Champs, Bravemansgame and Ahoy Senor await in the 3m race, as well as Fury Road and Vanillier. Hopefully some of the Mullins camp will see things the same as myself but that is probably wishful thinking!
Turner Novices Chase – Stattler 1 pt win 25/1 (WH)
+1
Looking forward to today’s racing although not really many that I want to back. I am keeping the faith with Exit Poll back over hurdles here having tipped up last time at Fairyhouse. He had looked progressive over fences prior to that run and should like the ground. Am backing with 3 place insurance.
16:50 Punchestown – Exit Poll, 1 pt win @ 12/1 (BFSB, 3 place insurance)
+50
Rule 4 for Oscar Elite’s place run, returns 2.5 pts.
Tomorrow I think Vinndication is a big price in the 3m hurdle. I think he ran very well in the stayers hurdle considering it was his first run since the Hennessy and I’d be hoping with the benefit of that run over hurdles he might jump better tomorrow. There’s no doubting he has a massive engine and hopefully his jumping comes together tomorrow. I’m a big fan of Thyme Hill but he is short enough for me tomorrow.
Aintree 15:35 – Vinndication 1 pt e/w 16/1 (BFSB, 4 places)
+51
Have backed a couple of Tizzard runners today in the shape of Fiddlerontheroof and Oscar Elite. Fiddlerontheroof has a string of seconds to his name but I don’t think he is ungenuine, just has a habit of bumping into one. This looks a weak Grade 1 and a reproduction of his Cheltenham run should be good enough (althought I have taken the 2-place insurance option with him). Oscar Elite bounced back to form in a big way at Cheltenham and although no match for Vanillier he was best of the rest. There seems to be a general belief the Albert Bartlett form is poor but I wouldn’t be quick to assume that other runners ahead of him in the betting here bring anything better to the table.
Aintree 14:20 – Fiddlerontheroof 2 pt win @ 4/1 (WH, 2 place insurance)
Aintree 16:40 – Oscar Elite 1 pt e/w @ 10/1 (WH, 4 places e/w)
+50.5
Thanks Bobby, Ashdale was a nice one. Was delighted to see old Snow Falcon run so well too. Big rule 4 on him but finishing 3rd returned a little over 5/2 for the place (+3.6 including stake).
+54.5
Busy day on the betting front today. In the 14:05 I think favorite Fighting Fit is priced well enough to bring up the hat trick. He has won as he liked last time and has previous form on yielding ground so hopefully the sounded surface here won’t be an issue. Battle Of Actium is also worth an interest for Joseph O’Brien. He has some decent bumper and hurdle form behind the likes of Dewcup, Eskylane and Gabynako. Stable form is a worry but at the prices he is worth a small interest I think.
14:05 Fairyhouse – Fighting Fit 1 pt win @ 7/1 (BF)
14:05 Fairyhouse – Battle Of Actium 0.5 pt win @ 28/1 (WH)In the G2 Juvenile Hurdle, I think it’s worth taking a chance on Busselton bounding back to form. He had Jeff Kidder 5 lengths behind at Leopardstown and is worth siding with without the favorite.
14:40 Fairyhouse – Busselton 1 pt win @ 3/1 (Without Teahupoo) (WH)
The 15:15 is another handicap hurdle and again I like the favourite, which is Lynwood Gold. Very progressive on the flat last year, he looked to have a lovely pipe opener in the pertemps qualifier at Punchestown and the Harrington horses are running so well over the past couple of days. I also like Klassy Kay who runs off a featherweight of 09-09. She had looked very progressive for Willie Mullins before a disappointing effort at Leopardstown last time.
15:15 Fairyhouse – Lynwood Gold 1 pt win @ 100/30 (WH)
15:15 Fairyhouse – Klassy Kay 0.5 pt win @ 10/1 (general)One of my old favorites Snow Falcon runs in the Grade 2 Devenish Chase. They are trying cheekpieces on for the first time and he was only beaten 6 or 7 lengths in the JN Wine Chase at Down Royal two runs ago. He goes well fresh and at is worth a swing at big prices.
16:20 Fairyhouse – Snow Falcon 1 pt place @ 11/2 (BF, 3 places)
16:20 Fairyhouse – Snow Falcon 0.5 pt win @ 43/1 (BF)+50.9
A good day at the office today but I was crippled with Rule 4’s on Ashdale Bob. When I took 11/1 with 3 place insurance he was top price 14/1 in the outright win market, his SP was 10/1 but I was only paid 4/1 in this market. Likewise I was only paid at 3/1 in the without market which was very disappointing but a profit is a profit.
It was satisfying to see him do what I thought he was capable of, having been so disappointing at Leopardstown. Likewise Echoes In Rain put in the special performance she hinted she was capable of last time out, she looks a potential star over 2 miles. Exit Poll was backed into 7/2 favoritism but tipped up, stable mate Jungle Junction taking the spoils, again advertising the form of the Harrington yard.
Ashdale Bob – returns 9 pts
Echoes In Rain – returns 6.5 pts+56.4
Great stuff with Janadil Bobby, I joined you with a small bet after reading your post
Thanks Bobby, thought he was going to hang on. He shaped like the best horse in the race but the cat will be out if the bag in terms of price next time.
3 bets today at Fairyhouse:
14:50 Echoes In Rain 2 pt win @ 9/4 (WH)
Echoes In Rain looked a mare who had learned plenty last time, settling better thab previously and that looks the key to her. I think she could be too quick for these. She carries a penalty for that success but she looked potentially special last time. Master McShee, Colonel Mustard and Razzle Dazzle Love will all want to be on the pace and I think it will suit her if the go hard.
15:50 Ashdale Bob 1 pt win @ 17/2 (w/out Gentlemansgame) (BFSB)
15:50 Ashdale Bob 1 pt win @ 11/1 (3 place insurance) (BFSB)Ashdale Bob needs to be forgiven a poor run last time but the Harrington string are in rude health and he looked a very smart horse in brushing Fakiera aside at Navan. I’m a big Gentlemansgame fan and he is tempting at 15/8. I may add him later. I have already had a speculative punt for the 3 mile nov chase at Cheltenham on him.
16:25 Exit Poll 1 pt e/w @ 13/2 (BFSB)
Another for the Harrington team, Exit Poll was impressive in beating Star Max last time and looked to have plenty in hand to do so. A winner at this course over hurdles, he looks a horse that is improving.
+40.9
At Fairyhouse today I have a fancy in both handicap hurdles. In the 3m novice, Crosshill is worth taking a chance on up in trip. He slammed Vanillier on seasonal debut (that one came on a lot for the run) over 2m 45f at Punchestown. Crosshill’s connections stated post race they felt he would need the run so he has been disappointing since. However, there is definitely potential there to be ahead of his mark of 135, and the step up in trip and better ground could see him bounce back.
Fairyhouse 15:30 – Crosshill 1 pt win @ 18/1 (WH)
In the Grade A handicap hurdle over 2m, Eskylane is the selection. 5th in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham last season, he only has a maiden hurdle win to his name this term. As with Crosshill, he was disappointing after that success, but was a big eyecatcher last time in a handicap hurdle at Leopardstown. That was a very competitive race compared to the small field novice hurdles he had been running in and the experience of the hustle and bustle of that should bring him on. He is not harshly treated off 133.
Fairyhouse 16:05 – Eskylane 1 pt win @ 13/1 (BF)
+48.9
Disappointing that Kalooki was beaten a head having lost vital momentum jumping into the rear of the winner, that’s the way it goes. Brentford Hope a NR, so returns 1 pt.
I am going to keep the faith with Fitzhenry in the Irish National. He gave the thread a nice return when placed at a big price last time but in truth he was never put in the race and was given no real chance to win. This looks very competitive so am keeping my stakes low with him. There are others I like who I will add once final declarations are made.
Irish National – Fitzhenry 0.5 pt win @ 25/1 (WH)
+50.9
Have had a small stab at Plan Of Attack on 370-380/1 on Betfair. I’m not sure if this is the plan but he is another de Bromhead horse who was scratched from the Irish National, and was going really well when coming down three out in the Kim Muir. The blinkers seemed to be working the trick that day and if he is none the worse for the fall (it was more of a stumble on landing really than a fall), he could have a chance. He needs a few to come out though to get in.
Kalooki looks to have an ideal opportunity to get his head back in front at Newbury today. Back down in trip, at a course that has seen his two best performances this season, he will be hard to beat. His jumping has been his achilles heel up to now but if he puts it all together he could win this with ease.
Newbury 16:00 – Kalooki 1 pt win @ 7/4 (BF)
As soon as he crossed the line in Haydock last October, I thought the Lincoln was the ideal target for Brentford Hope. His chance would be better with a bit more cut in the ground and there doesn’t appear to be much market confidence in him this morning. He is still worth a bet though imo, the return to a mile looked the making of him last time and there could be plenty more to come.
Doncaster 15:10 – Brentford Hope 0.5 pts e/w @ 9/1 (BFSB)
+50.4
In terms of the Grade 1 races, I think a case could be made for the removal of the below (I know it will never happen):
Marsh Novice Chase – bring back the novice handicap chase but without the ratings limit. If you are determined to run over 2m 4f then either give weight away in that or go to Fairyhouse for the Grade 1 there. This race not only dilutes the Arkle and RSA but also the Fairyhouse race.
Ryanair – as with the above, if you are that determined to run over the intermediate trip, go to Aintree for the Melling. This would benefit the CC and GC, and also the Aintree festival. The last two renewals of the Melling only had 6 runners in each.
Albert Bartlett – I would keep the Ballymore at 2m 5f as the race for the staying novices. This is something the Dublin Racing Festival has spot on imo with 2m and 2m 6f novice hurdles.
I love Cheltenham as much as the next person but there doesn’t have to be a championship race over all distances for all divisions at Cheltenham – there are other race meetings. A reduction in the number of races at Cheltenham would not only be a positive for Cheltenham and imo improve it, but would also improve the other meetings around it.
