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Similarly to last year this thread will likely be focused on Irish National Hunt racing between now and the Punchestown festival as well as the bigger UK meets. I intend to document bets on a 0-2 point scale, the majority of which will be win only. Bets will be placed with William Hill, Betfair Sportsbook or on the Betfair exchange.
Last year went very well with 50 pts profit returned from stakes of 70.5 pts so hopefully this thread can go some way to emulating that.
The first selection this year is a short priced one, Ginto at even money with 2 place insurance in the Grade 1 Novice Hurdle at Naas today. All this horse does is stay but he has progressed with each run and has looked more and more professional each time. He made light work of Eric Bloodaxe last time out who won easily at Limerick over Christmas. In time I have no doubt Ginto will want 3 miles but the stiff 2m 4f at Naas on soft ground will suit.
I have played with the insurance as I have a lot of respect for Whatdeawant, who beat Ginto despite running green in a bumper. He looks to have any amount of potential but I just feel Ginto may be a step ahead in his progression at the moment and with today’s conditions looking likely to suit.
14:10 Naas – Ginto, 2 pt win Evens (2 place insurance)
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Thanks Bobby and Nathan, good to be back again for what looks an exciting spring of jumps racing.
Ginto won in impressive style making giving me a good start. He is an extremely likeable horse, loved the way he did it, there may be quicker horses in the Ballymore but he will be a player nonetheless, especially if it comes up soft. He looks tailormade for the likes of an Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown in the future.
I have placed my first Cheltenham bet of the thread now on a horse I fear will not run where I want him to. I don’t usually like backing ante post when I’m unsure of the target but the race looks perfect for the horse and the price is too good to pass on.
Stattler at 25/1 for the Turners Novices Chase over 2m 4f on the Thursday is the bet. I struggle to understand the desire to see him stepped up in trip for the RSA or even the National Hunt Chase for which he is favourite. He is a strong travelling sort who has looked a weak finished over staying trips on a number of occasions now:
– over 2m 6f at Leopardstown last year he had all bar Gaillard Du Mesnil in trouble turning in before getting caught for second by Gentlemansgame (a horse I think has a big future)
– in the Albert Bartlett he again travelled well, before getting caught a bit short for room 2 out, where he landed in fifth, before showing a good turn of foot to go second on the run to the last, and again flattened out on the run in
– a similar story at Punchestown where he travelled well and most of the field in trouble on the turn in (with the exception of brilliant winner Galopin Des Champs), and was again outstayed by Gentlemansgame for secondHe put in an excellent display over 2m 6f to get his season rolling and given how well he travels I feel he is wasted over the longer trip and could improve for stepping back to 2m 4f. The intermediate distance looks a weaker race also, for all that Bob Olinger is favourite, as the trio of Galopin Des Champs, Bravemansgame and Ahoy Senor await in the 3m race, as well as Fury Road and Vanillier. Hopefully some of the Mullins camp will see things the same as myself but that is probably wishful thinking!
Turner Novices Chase – Stattler 1 pt win 25/1 (WH)
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It’s a fair point Tommy. I bet Stattler for NH Chase before his run in the Albert Bartlett, and for all I’m happy with the 33’s for a horse that’s favourite for that race, I’m in agreement with you. It doesn’t look the right race for him.
I’ve covered him so far for The Brown Advisory, but reckon I’ll be joining you for Turners with him, albeit when proper NRNB kicks in. Plan to cover all three races with stablemates En Beton, and Jungle Boogie too, so no choice but to take the reduced odds when that happens.
Have backed the two Evan Williams runners in the Lanzarote today: Dans La Vent and Bold Plan. They have being going in different directions in the handicap this season. Dans La Vent has looked better than ever and actually ran a very good race last time despite finishing last of four finishers, behind Stormy Ireland at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. Thankfully he did not get a rise in the weights after that despite his close proximity to some good horses. I think the conditions of the race will suit him, he’ll be staying on from off the pace and with the extra places is a good each way bet at 12/1.
Bold Plan has been dropped 10 lbs in his last three starts and is now fitted with first time cheekpieces. Williams has stated they have had this in mind for some time so at 25/1 I will have a small play also.
14:40 Kempton – Dans La Vent, 1 pt e/w 12/1 (6 places)
14:40 Kempton – Bold Plan, 0.5 pt e/w 25/1 (6 places)-2
Well done with Dans Le Vent Tommy, decent EW. Definitely keeping with him as the season goes on.
Thanks Bobby, I saw you had him also so well done. He never really threatened to land a blow but wasn’t beaten all that far in the finish, there could be another handicap in him.
1.8
Fils Dor impressed me a mt Christmas and will be hard to beat but I thought Vauban was desperately unlucky against Pied Piper at Punchestown and is worth a go to turn over the favourite, he could be a bit special.
Leop 13:35 – Vauban 1 pt win 9/4
In the novice chase I like Haut En Colours but from a price perspective I feel the mare Riviere D’Etele should really be shorter and outright favourite. The form with Ferny Hollow sets a very high standard here.
Leop 14:10 – Riviere D’Etel 1 pt win 2/1
Priory Park was your typical JP handicap winner at Christmas, winning more cosily than the winnjng margin suggested and I think be can defy a 10 lb rise in the handicap and go in again.
Leop 14:45 – Priory Park 0.5 pt e/w 7/1 (7 places)
In the big race, the Irish Gold Cup, I have come down on the side of Janidil. My first impressions of the Savills Chase was that Janidil didn’t stay, and thay may well be the case. However, he finished extremely tired looking behind Allaho in what was a gruelling John Durkan on his comeback run and I just wonder if he hadn’t got over that completely. As such I think he is worth another go at this trip.
Leop 15:15 – Janidil 0.5 pt e/w 12/1 (3 places)
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Looking at Sunday’s card and the standout bet is Capodanno for me. He gave Bob Olinger a real fright turning in at Punchestown last time and left Gaillard Du Mesnil and some smart horses 27+ lengths behind. Galopin Des Champs looks a star but if he is not at his best then Capodanno is definitely the one I like to take advantage, as well as looking a huge price at 4/1 in the without market.
Leop 13:20 (Sun) – Capodanno 1 pt win 4/1 (without fav)
Leop 13:20 (Sun) – Capodanno 1 pt win 7/1 (3 place insurance)-4.2
Some more selections for today, unfortunately not much time for a write up:
12:45 – Banntown Girl 0.5pt e/w 12/1 5 places
14:25 – Max Flamingo 1pt e/w 11/2 5 places
16:10 – Sea Ducor 1pt e/w 6/1 5 placesJanidil placed returns 1.7
Banntown Girl placed returns 1.7
Sea Ducor placed returns 2.2+1.4
Very disappointed with Capodanno falling, I thought he was a clear second best beforehand and on a line through Gaillard Du Mesnil you’d like to think he would have been second.
Tomorrow I think Pats Fancy might turn over Bravemansgame in receipt of 16 lbs. It’s been well documented that the Nicholls yard are in poor form and Pats Fancy put up a career best last time at Chepstow.
Sceaux Royal has been given a bit of a break after a busy autumn and he is potentially a cut above these at if back to something like his best. He was very unlucky in last season’s Champion Chase and with Editeur De Gite now out of the race he is worth a bet at 9/4.
A few nice horses at Naas tomorrow too. Journey With Me is my idea of the Ballymore winner but faces a good horse in O’Toole while Brazil is one I have been keeping an eye on for a while, he is one who could improve for the application of cash
Newbury 13:15 – Pats Fancy 1 pt win 4/1
Newbury 15:00 – Sceaux Royal 1 pt win 9/4-0.6
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