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Straight from thehorsesmouth 2021

Home Forums Tipping and Research Daily Lays And Plays Straight from thehorsesmouth 2021

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  • #1524400
    thehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5475

    Hello all.

    It’s been a few years since I’ve posted here but have recently been feeling to call to return, for a couple of reasons. Firstly, my interest in racing has waned somewhat over the past couple of years, but I still keep in touch with most of the National Hunt, and still have a bet. I have been betting less often, but when I do my betting has become ill-informed and ill-disciplined, and I haven’t kept records for the past few years. Secondly, I can probably speak for a lot of people when I say the current lockdown situation is not a very healthy one for the mind, and I think the combination of keeping records again as well as being more active here will be good for my betting and good for me.

    This thread will likely be focused on Irish National Hunt racing as well as the bigger UK meets. I intend to document bets on a 0-2 point scale, the majority of which will be win only. Bets will be placed with William Hill, Betfair Sportsbook or on the Betfair exchange.

    In years gone by my ante post bets for Cheltenham would be numbering double figures at this stage, but this year I’ve only had one up until now: a win bet on Column Of Fire for the Pertemps. He is entered in the final qualifier in Ireland at Punchestown on Wednesday, so I can only hope that he is not only declared but also finishes in the first six.

    This thread will begin with four additional selections for the Festival, all on the Thursday.

    Ryanair Chase – Tornado Flyer 0.5 pt win @ 50/1 (BF Exchange)
    The Ryanair market is full of horses with something to prove. I have been a big Allaho fan most of his life but he just hasn’t done enough for me to warrant heading the market at 5/1. Imperial Aura has looked progressive but I’m not certain his form warrants him being so much shorter than the selection. Min ran a listless race last time and although he has bounced back from poor efforts before, and has the best two and half mile form in the race, at the prices I prefer the horse who was beaten just one length by him in the John Durkan. Tornado Flyer would be something of a shock winner but he had some very good horses behind that day at Punchestown and gave Min an almighty fright. It was also notable how well supported he was in the market that day, I think he’s an improved horse from last season. He has since gone up to 3m for an attritional Lexus which I don’t think saw the best of him, and his jumping was put under too much pressure against Grade 1 two milers on his most recent outing. Back over the intermediate trip and with less pressure on his jumping he has a better chance than most here and is somewhat forgotten.

    Festival Plate – Farclas 1 pt win @ 16/1 (WH)
    It’s usually not the best tactic to be punting in the handicaps before the Irish horses have received their marks, but Farclas has been given 146 for the Grand National and I will be very happy to see him line up off that rating here. A winner of the Triumph three years ago, he had an underwhelming second season hurdling but has since found his feet again over fences. First time out this season he ran a lovely race in fifth as an unfancied 20/1 at Punchestown, and the form of that race has worked out exceptionally. Winner Daly Tiger has won another handicap since and is now rated 20 lbs higher; Tornado Flyer was second and has since ran Min close in the John Durkan and is now rated 10 lbs higher; and third horse Castlebawn West went on to win the Paddy Power (Farclas third there) and is now rated 14 lbs higher. Off 146 Farclas would only be running off a 4 lb higher mark, and he has showed up very well again in his two starts since. He pulled too hard over 3m when third in the Paddy Power, traditionally one of the most competitive handicaps run in Ireland each year. He then went off favorite for the Grade A handicap Chase at the Dublin Racing Festival, won by Off You Go, where a mistake two out probably cost him victory. That was another seriously competitive handicap, and given how he travels in his race, I think 2m 5f at Cheltenham will be ideal. He is effectively unpenalised for those efforts and I am convinced there is more to come. It’s very hard to see him being out of the shake up.

    Mares’ Novice Hurdle – Glens Of Antrim 1 pt win @ 33/1 (WH)
    Hook Up is the ante post favorite here for Willie Mullins but I think he may have a better mare at a much bigger price in the shape of Glens Of Antrim. She has run in two very good maiden hurdles on her most recent starts. Firstly chasing home Stattler over 2m 4f at Leopardstown at Christmas and most recently behind Mr Incredible over 2m 3f at Naas. The form of both those runs may not be winning form but it is as good as any graded mares’ novice race that has been run for my money. They are potentially two Grade 1 horses she has chased home. Stattler has gone on to run very well behind Gaillard Du Mesnil while Mr Incredible chased that one home on his previous outing. She looks to have loads of gears to me and the step back to the 2m will not be a problem. Both she and Mr Incredible pulled 33 lengths clear of Momus at Naas and it was only after a sloppy jump at the last did Mr Incredible eventually get on top after a prolonged duel. It is worth noting she was extremely well backed for both of those starts so is obviously held in very high regard, and if she gets there in one piece I can see her being well backed again.

    Kim Muir – Fitzhenry 1 pt win @ 25/1 (BF Sportsbook NRNB)
    This one caused a bit of heartbreak last year, finishing a staying on sixth in this race, having never been close enough (or asked early enough) to challenge. He is likely to be a few pounds lower this year after some uninspiring efforts but I wouldn’t read too much into those. He has come the same route as last year, and was bet a similar distance at Leopardstown in his prep last year too and it didn’t do him any harm. I would imagine redemption here has been the plan all season and an extra few pounds off his back will be a help if the UK handicapper takes the same view as their Irish counterpart (dropped 5 pounds here). I’m not sure what the jockey situation is this year, with amateurs perhaps not being allowed to ride, but I would be hoping with a better ride he can make up for last year’s loss.

    -3.5

    #1524401
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16453

    Welcome back THM, and best of luck………especially with Tornado Flyer

    #1524538
    Nathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 23825

    Tommy great to have you back
    Best of luck with the thread..🐴

    Member since March 2008
    #1524775
    thehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5475

    Thanks Bobby and Nathan. Hopefully will find a few winners on the way.

    #1525135
    Lemons68
    Participant
    • Total Posts 499

    It’s great to see you back thm, good luck with your bets.

    #1525304
    thehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5475

    Thanks Lemons, looking forward to getting going.

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