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What figure did you give Companion Mike? won at Yarmouth 23.04.19.
An average figure of 36
Top Speed awarded him a speed figure of 59 (less RP WFA 24lbs) = 35
Mike.
My 2019 2yo speed figures:
04:10 Newmarket 16-Apr-19 Class 4 Chasing Dreams 64
04:10 Newmarket 05-May-19 Class 3 Threat 64
02:15 Ascot 01-May-19 Class 2 Ventura Rebel 63
02:35 Lingfield 03-May-19 Class 4 Strong Power 58
04:40 Kempton (AW) 03-Apr-19 Class 5 Lady Kermit 57
02:05 Navan (IRE) 28-Apr-19 Back To Brussels 57
04:40 Naas (IRE) 29-Apr-19 Peace Charter 57
04:10 Doncaster 30-Mar-19 Class 3 Show Me Show Me 56
01:30 Naas (IRE) 24-Mar-19 Red Epaulette 56
04:40 Naas (IRE) 29-Apr-19 So Wonderful 56
04:10 Newmarket 05-May-19 Class 3 Electrical Storm 56
02:25 Newmarket 18-Apr-19 Class 4 Well Of Wisdom 55
02:15 Ascot 01-May-19 Class 2 Lady Pauline 55
02:15 Ascot 01-May-19 Class 2 Full Verse 55
02:15 Beverley 17-Apr-19 Class 5 Birdie Bowers 54
02:05 Navan (IRE) 28-Apr-19 Feminista 54
02:35 Lingfield 03-May-19 Class 4 Illusionist 54
04:10 Doncaster 30-Mar-19 Class 3 Strong Power 53
02:00 Leicester 05-Apr-19 Class 5 Zulu Zander 53
02:00 Redcar 08-Apr-19 Class 5 Exclusively 53
02:25 Newmarket 18-Apr-19 Class 4 Electrical Storm 53
01:40 Newcastle (AW) 19-Apr-19 Class 2 Lady Kermit 53
01:55 Beverley 06-May-19 Class 5 Dylan De Vega 53
02:30 Lingfield (AW) 02-Apr-19 Class 5 Electric Ladyland 52
02:00 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) 14-Apr-19 George Cornelius 52
02:15 Beverley 17-Apr-19 Class 5 Birkenhead 52
01:40 Beverley 25-Apr-19 Class 5 Iva Go 52
01:40 Beverley 25-Apr-19 Class 5 Azteca 52
01:50 Naas (IRE) 13-Apr-19 Monarch Of Egypt 51
02:30 Lingfield (AW) 02-Apr-19 Class 5 Birkenhead 50
04:30 Tipperary (IRE) 25-Apr-19 Pistoletto 50Mike.
And the effect of the longer distance and the uphill start is shown by the race times. Thirty years ago, when Rustle beat Galmoy on good to soft ground, he took 6m 45s. This year under similar conditions,
Alan
Comparing racetimes from thirty years ago to modern times changed dramatically for me in 2015, when the BHA started publishing rail movements, little did I realise that prior to 2015 using Fakenham as an example, due to rail movements, a distance could be increased by up to 258yds(17.2s).
When I started making rail movement time adjustments to the comparison per furlong times (December 2015), my speed figures accuracy went up another level, I realised that my figures from the previous 5 years were a waste of time.
Mike (Swindon).
Message to Mike: would you agree the going was Good not the official G-S?
I had the going at +0.14s/f (good) with Tiger Roll earning a speed figure of 115.
Tiger Roll recent performances have been impressive, on the clock he never seems to produce big speed figures.
With regards to the handicapper, he can blow steam out of his ass, did the runner up Magic of light (SF 106) also improve that much, a 66/1 shot, I don’t think so.
You can check the speed figures for Aintree etc, just use the filters to select a date and racecourse.
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1r1FcjEUEFRXIlojKmtcyGH6NIv9nbBdr
Mike.
The one trainer who would never make the list is Michael Blanshard, since I have been compiling speed figures, he is in my view the worst trainer on the planet, 19 winners in the past 5 seasons impressive sh*t.
Couldn’t train ivy up the wall springs to mind…
Mike.
Would be interested to know exactly why Band Of Outlaws comes out so high, however.
From RP:
All 20 juveniles were making their handicap debut in this season’s Fred Winter. It was run at a frantic gallop, suiting the closers, and saw an Irish-trained 1-2-3. Race distance increased by 8yds.I gave Band Of Outlawa a speed figure of 136, “Top Speed’s” figure was 131, I adjust for rail movements and he doesn’t…
Mike.
What figure did you give to Al Boum Photo for his Tramore win, Mike?
He didn’t earn a speed figure as the race was run in a crawl.
Mike.
GoldenMiller34
So, your converted figure for Waiting Patiently, Mike, is 157 (based on his speed figure of 126)? How can there be a difference of only 11? You once told me your pound to length conversion for the GN distance so you are using the ‘opposite’, i.e. over 1L = 1lb for 2m5f and shorter whereas RPR (and me) seems to use 1=1 across the board? What is your 1=1 distance – about 3m 1f?I have never used 1lb = I length, I have my own lb per length figures ref my standard times list.
Standard times:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1_t6JFfgmzfC3FB9mRvk38VNujNbE6tyICyrname raced over Ascot’s 2m5f8yds(C) distance on Saturday, my lbs per length for the distance is 0.65
17 x 0.65 = 11.05
Standard time = 308.0s (5m 8.0s)
200 Constant) / 308.0s = 0.65The BHA lbs per length scale is different to mine…
https://www.britishhorseracing.com/regulation/performance-figures/Mike.
You have to admit that Cyrname was mighty impressive in the Betfair Ascot Chase, earning a speed figure from me of 137 compared to Altior’s current top speed figure of 138.
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1r1FcjEUEFRXIlojKmtcyGH6NIv9nbBdr
Using the tools I have available to me, the BHA handicapper has over rated Cyrname by 10lbs, they say 178, my figures say it should be 168.
You can’t really blame the BHA handicappers, comparing rail movements and actual going allowances on any day, there wouldn’t have a clue, so they don’t have an actual time figure to work from they just guess.
Mike.
Mike, out of curiousity is this solely since the May or when? I find it hard to imagine Nicholls should be so close to WPM + ahead of NH?
My NH season started on the 1/9/2018, you might have noticed the recent form of the Paul Nicholls stable, it’s the best it has been for a couple of years.
Mike.
Mike, is that using the jockeys as a 30% variable and then comparing against performance and/or expected chance (odds) or how have you come to those figures?
It is for current form, as the data for the current season becomes available, I change the percentile figures as the database increases.
It works for the trainers as well.
Paul Nicholls – 113
Nicky Henderson – 105
Willie Mullins – 117Mike.
I’m sorry to say that Ruby is past his sell by date, I look at every race when compiling my speed figures, and have noticed that Paul Townsend outperforms Ruby.
Looking at my speed figures and using the 30th percentile from both jockeys top speed figures we have.
P Townsend – 112
R walsh – 88
Rachael Blackmore – 96It doesn’t look good does it.
Mike.
Steeplechasing-The trouble with making truly objective comments on a ride is that – experienced as you might be as a race-reader – 99% of the time you have no idea what has happened in the race
Very true statement Joe.
There was nothing wrong with Verdana Blue’s last run against the clock, he earned a 130 speed figure from me, which was on par with the 133 figure Sharjah managed at Punchestown.
If you compare these two good horses against Buveur D’Air run in the Champion Hurdle where he earned a speed figure of 130, like i mentioned, there was nothing wrong Verdana Blue’s performace.
Here are my current speed figure for the new NH season, all rail movements are adjusted for.
NH2018_2019: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1r1FcjEUEFRXIlojKmtcyGH6NIv9nbBdr
Updated daily…
Mike.
Watch the race this morning, Winx won in a canter, no doubt Matt Chapman’s quip in the week “what has she beaten”…what a tit.
GoldenMiller34- Mike won’t necessarily agree, Jack, but from my experience in rating all Grand National finishers 1836-2018 where the distances are known I would say that time is merely one, relatively unreliable, component of assessing the numerical merit of a horse’s performance.
Thoroughbred racing is linear, so can be mathematically proven.
With regards to the Grand National, when the distance was shortened in 2016, using linear curve regression I knocked 9.0s off the standard time.
Mike.