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I wonder how much longer he will be around. Listening to the The FInal Furlong podcats yesterday it was interesting to hear that Willie was not happy with several recent rides of Ruby’s. Also that he heaped praise on Paul Townend. Did not hear the interview when he said that. Interesting what happens in the coming weeks.
I’m sorry to say that Ruby is past his sell by date, I look at every race when compiling my speed figures, and have noticed that Paul Townsend outperforms Ruby.
Looking at my speed figures and using the 30th percentile from both jockeys top speed figures we have.
P Townsend – 112
R walsh – 88
Rachael Blackmore – 96It doesn’t look good does it.
Mike.
Taken from my response on the Faugheen thread:
What did every make of WPM’s comments after the race. I heard quite a lot of fallout about them and how they were very critical of Ruby.
Personally, i don’t see what else Ruby was to do, he’s been quoted in the past as saying he thinks Faugheen has lost that proper acceleration he had. He’d probably have lost the race if he took a pull when Tombstone kept challenging and considering he’s on the horse that stays 3miles, he probably thought he’d be able to sustain the gallop better than Tombstone, and that gave him the best chance of winning, rather than waiting and racing Sharjah for a turn of foot
.There’s no doubt Ruby hasn’t had the perfect return, but it’s clear he’s taking his return slowly, picking and choosing rides.
Bit early for the overreation i think.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!So you can work out using speed figures that rachel blackmore (as good as she is) is now better than ruby walsh? Come on….
Comeee onnnnnnnnn
Mike, is that using the jockeys as a 30% variable and then comparing against performance and/or expected chance (odds) or how have you come to those figures?
Very interesting to hear about such a thing. James Willoughby has mentioned similar on RUK, he runs jockey rankings for example, although he gets slightly confusing at times.
Mullins being audibly frustrated with Rupert publicly is something i’d never heard before until this past weekend.
What i would say is that he didn’t say much when Paul cocked up majorly on ABP last April, so to come out against Ruby is very strange. Ruby is definitely nearing the end, hence reducing his riding especially on chasers.
Mike, is that using the jockeys as a 30% variable and then comparing against performance and/or expected chance (odds) or how have you come to those figures?
It is for current form, as the data for the current season becomes available, I change the percentile figures as the database increases.
It works for the trainers as well.
Paul Nicholls – 113
Nicky Henderson – 105
Willie Mullins – 117Mike.
It works for the trainers as well.
Paul Nicholls – 113
Nicky Henderson – 105
Willie Mullins – 117Mike.
Mike, out of curiousity is this solely since the May or when? I find it hard to imagine Nicholls should be so close to WPM + ahead of NH?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Mike, out of curiousity is this solely since the May or when? I find it hard to imagine Nicholls should be so close to WPM + ahead of NH?
My NH season started on the 1/9/2018, you might have noticed the recent form of the Paul Nicholls stable, it’s the best it has been for a couple of years.
Mike.
Ah, ok Mike, so your figures for the jockeys as well was that from 1/9/2018?
If so, i don’t think i’d be drawing too many conclusions from them just yet.
All the falls have not been down to plain jockey error. Also, in my opinion rode Faugheen quite rightly as i’ve said above.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Makes sense Mike, thanks.
As you say Jack, due to the infancy of this season it’s very much recency bias at this stage.
Paul Nicholls is not in form, I would just like to reiterate, Paul Nicholls is not in form. His horses should be avoided like the plague, and left to drift in the betting to a big fat price. Because P Nicholls is out of form.
Any stat in the world can say whatever, Cheltenham 2019, my cash goes on Ruby, every single time over any other jockey mentioned in this thread. Backwards, with my eyes closed. Who cares about now, when he’s nursing an injury still. Get yourself right for Cheltenham Ruby. Your horses can all drift like a barge too.
And anyone at all, anyone, who thinks Nicholls amazing success eight or so years ago, and then Mullins, amazing success in more recent times…. Is in no way connected to Ruby Walsh being at both stables, as well as both trainers, well, I’m actually astounded. Ask Nicholls if he’d have him back, even just on a Saturday or big race days as a jockey. Mainly, just too be there in the morning, to teach the young horses, too school them to be future champions on the racetrack… It would be move over Harry Cobden, in a millisecond. If Mullins gets rid of Ruby, or Ruby steps down, Mullins stable will be MASSIVELY poorer for it. And that has nothing too do with his jockey skills alone.
Yep Nausered, massive overreaction.
Bluebrothers i’m fairly surprised that person who seems to base his opinion so strongly of the figures in racing etc. can come to such a “conclusion” on so little data?
Either way, it does beg the question as let’s be honest, Ruby isn’t getting any younger…does Townend take over completely once he’s gone? I like Townend, but i’m really not sure he’s the big race rider Ruby is.
Will Mullins start to plan for this? Elliot or Giggy seem to have been on the ball and snapped up Kennedy early doors. Will it be David Mullins? Personally think he’s very good too.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Ruby so far this season has had 60 rides compared to Townend/Blackmore’s 225 & 348 respectively so a bit early to be writing the man off when considering he has such a small sample size. The big issue with him seems to be injuries but personally if he can avoid that he is still the best around and would always be my first call if I needed a jockey (especially for the big day).
I have noticed that Ruby is not on every Mullins horse in every race even when riding at the meeting, now whether that is down to Ruby being more selective of his rides or Mullins sticking with winning combinations or owners having a preference I don’t know.
I do find it odd that Mullins would call Ruby’s ride on Faugheen into question as that tactic has always been the way he has been ridden since he stepped out of novice company and I would be more questioning Mullins decision to start him off over 2m when he was so brilliant over 3m last year.
Apart from his first run (where he was trained to the minute having been in the yard much earlier), everything last year clearly indicated that the horse had lost a little of his zip (not surprising considering the injuries) and his run over 3m (his first since he won his prep race before the Neptune as a novice) to me clearly showed that he should be going the Stayers route to Cheltenham this year.
Yes Ruby is closer to exiting stage left on his career but only Patrick Mullins has a better strike rate than his currently (each year Ruby’s rate at the end of the season is in or around 30% – currently he is on 28%), so I think it is a bit too early to be looking to pension him off just yet.
Cant pretend to have much sympathy for Ruby in his current travails. To me he frequently comes across as gruff, gets easily unglued when his opinion is challenged, and appears to have little regard for punters (unless he’s getting paid).
But to write him off or speak of his demise on the back of his current poor spell is way way premature imo.
Not so long away they were saying something similar about Frankie.
rock on ruby
LD73, using his strike rate is all well and good but he’s on 1/2 shots regularly in maiden hurdles. As is Patrick in many a bumper.
Hence why accounting for the SP like Mike does is more accurate to performance (over a full season to allow for variance).Take your point but that isn’t a situaton that has changed since he came back to Ireland full time for Mullins (he only tends to ride bigger SP horses when he doesn’t ride for Mullins or when he rides in the Cheltenham bumper).
The main point I was trying to make is that his current strike rate this season (28%) is in the same ball park as his overall strike rate at the end of each jumps season for the last 4 seasons (29% for 17/18, 35% for 16/17, 30% for 15/16 & 31% for 14/15), which is hardly a sign that he is past his best.
Also I find it hard to believe that anyone can come to such a conclusion on a particular jockey’s performance/ability when there is such a big disparity in the number of rides Ruby has had compared to Blackmore & Townsend.
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