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hard to pick from thompson and pitman but i think pitman just wins it no hang about ive changed my mind i will go for thomson his commentaries have to be the biggest embarrasment known to mankind
escoriol<br>you are beyond belief mate every time i read a topic on this forum there you are again<br>it wouldnt be so bad but i dont think i have agreed with you once
one things for sure between now and cheltenham storys will be ciculating on a regular basis about israbaq my advice is ignore it all its all hype if obrien runs him at cheltenham it wont just be for fun
sorry rather than posting about the coin perhaps i should have posted about 2000 sentances on a horse race instead although id probably still be writing it now<br>of course a evens winner looks good value after the race but we dont live in the future do we
escorial the only difference between me and you is that i dont bet on horses but professional gamblers do and they use this value thing and they make thier living at it you dont i rest my case<br>where people get this value thing wrong is not that its the wrong approach its that 99.99% of people couldnt price an event/race up accuratley<br>
james i didnt read your bit earlier about the dice table the coins etc etc but that sums it up nicely for me<br>and people still say a winner is a winner…..look at the example folks the coin merchant will get loads of winners his 1st 3 bets might be winners but long term he will LOSE fact<br>every year stanley racing offer odds on who will kick off the cup final and go 5/6 each of two….last year a bloke in the local shop was boasting he had the winner in my eyes he is a mug a mug you might ask but this man backed a winner and a winner is a winner …yes it is short term but long term it dosent work like that…do u think the punter wins or loses regulary<br>escorial you keep saying a winner is a winner then the same must be said for a loser is a loser….work it out mate if you can<br>
escorial<br>you can say all you want about a winner being a winner but that is a short term view and to make this game pay a long term view is what is required<br>example<br>1/5 leeds ..9/2draw..9/1 northampton<br>now this would be the odds or as near as damn it for this match…..your way of thinking correct me if im wrong is that backing leed would get you a winner..and a winner is a winner………now nearly all the time you would be on a winner but on those occasions when a draw or northampton came in it would outway all your winnings<br>now look at it from a value point of view<br>1/50leeds..33/1draw…40/1northampton<br>a winner is a winner you go leeds<br>betting to value i go the draw<br>it dosent take a genius to work out who would make the most cash to level stakes after say 100 bets like this(or long term)<br>of course this is an extreme example but the principles remain in tact<br>of course for the average person it is hard or near enough impossible to price an event accuratley therefore making it a hopeless task to find the correct value in the event<br>
point taken escorial but please just answer would you bet at 1/500 on the earlier example….you said that you would back at 1/3 ….have you a cut off price (surely you must and in that way you are using prices to dictate to you a bet)<br>one further point<br>if you are searching through race after race then surely most of your selections will be favourites (otherwise you are very very very clever or the bookies are wrong most of the time)…what is your average price winner
escorial<br>sorry mate if you are taking 1/3 (because of bookmakers shortening the odds due to liabilities)about a 4/1 shot (alright it might not be a true 4/1 shot but anyone would agree that it should be odds against)then i would say that you are only fooling yourself if you think you can win at this game LONGTERM<br>its all very well stating your winning tips on here in black and white but any one can pick a few winners in the short term (a bloke in a bookies i go to had 10 winning forecasts out of the 1st 29 races today it dosent make him a winner as he always backs 1×2 in every race)<br>what your saying is that if the horse was 1/500 you would still back it because you believed it was a good thing (or is there a cut off point…have i missed something) surely anyone who knows anything would agree that backing a horse at 1/500 would be plain crazy (especially as the betting forecast was 4/1 )<br>i await you comments on the above with baited breath<br>sorry if i am coming across as arguementive i dont mean to be and am only seeking thoughts ideals reasoning etc etc
escorial just one question<br>you fancy a horse and its forecast at 4/1 (ridden by dettori)<br>now you believe this horse is a maximum bet or a real good thing to win<br>on your way to ladbrokes in plenty of time before the off you enter the shop and look at the results low and behold dettori has just ridden 7 out of 7 winners good for him you think<br>a few minutes pass and the 1st show comes up and your good thing is 1/3 do you still back it as its a good thing or not
i dont state for one minute that i can price a race to 100% that is for the pro`s i very rarely back horses as i bet 99% on the spread markets and that is a whole new ball game
every pro gambler in the country assesses the horses chance against its price and bets when the odds are in his favour<br>escorial if you really think that you are on a winner when selecting a 10/1 shot you are crazy a pro might rate it 7/1 or 8/1 but its never going to win more times than it loses<br>surely if you think a horse at 3/1 in one race and a horse at 12/1 in another which you both think will win then you must punt more on the bigger price
the thing with the value angle is that you have to be able to price a race up 100% acuratley or you fail this is what people like yourself cant grasp
nick<br>personally i bring every race to a certain distance and take it from there….you know what every class of race should produce roughly so you can eliminate any flukes<br>of course there is more to it than that but this is just a rough outline on how i work and of course the speed figures arent the be all and end all but it gives you a pretty damn good base from which to work
anybody got any thoughts on spread betting and making books value etc etc
a question for escorial<br>a toss of a coin<br>true odds=50%heads+50%tails or evens the both<br>if you thought that heads was a good bet would you back it at 1/3<br>personally i would only back it at 11/10 or higher<br> if it came up and 1/3 was being offered although it was a winner i wouldnt kick myself because over the long run i know i would lose money although i would still miss lots of winners<br>nick hatton<br>i think using speed figures on the all weather is a major assett to finding winners and i know where your coming from when you say the prices shorten on your fancies<br>
