[RedRum77]

Newcastle 4.10, class 2, 5 furlongs 11 run:

1 Masta Plasta drawn 2
2 Strike Up The Band drawn 11
3 Quest For Success drawn 9
4 Buachaill Dona drawn 4
5 Captain Dunne drawn 10
6 Roker Park drawn 8
7 Rebel Duke drawn 3
8 Red Cape drawn 5
9 The Nifty Fox drawn 7
10 Master Rooney drawn 6
11 Rasaman 1

The selections are

Strike Up The Band, Captain Dunne, Quest For Success, Roker Park

[RedRum77]

[b:3h190nng]Analysis of Eider chase 2000

With a top weight rated 17 pound below the ceiling, this hardly looked the stongest renewal of what old – timers still refer to as the Eider Chase.

Only the most relentless stayers survived on extremely testing ground, but SCOTTON GREEN has thrived since stepped up to Marathon trips and put up his best performance yet in holding the late charge of ACKZO, having looked set for a clear cut win running to the last.

As at Catterick a week earlier, he ran very lazily in front, which should keep him on a handy mark. Moreover, his jumping is a major asset in these long distance slogs, and he will surely continue to give a good account in such races.

ACKZO up in distance and class on only his 3rd run over fences, came home with a rare flourish from way back under a determined ride and ran a blinder. However, he was distressed afterwards, and the combination of a hard race and some very sketchy jumping suggests it might not pay to take too short a price about him next time.

FULL OF OATS, 2nd in this race last season, ran splendidly again, jumping boldly, and retain bags of enthusiasm despite advancing years.

SILLARS STALKER also returned to form with conditions to suit, but FOREST IVORY has not responded to blinkers since his fine Welsh national run and remains devilish difficult to win with.

Most of the remainders were beaten off a long way out.KENDAL CAVALIER has not shown anything like his old zest this season, KINGDOM OF SHADES paid for poor jumping and PUREVALUE found this extreme stamina test more than he could cope with.

PETER ran badly in this race for a second year running, CHEROKEE BOY seemed unsuited by heavy ground, but FOLLY ROAD was in the process of running a bold race when he departed. MISTER MUDDYPAWS, close behind the winner at Catterick a week earlier, showed little zest from an early stage.[/b:3h190nng]

[RedRum77]

Two more races both at Ripon

2.15 Class 3 6 Furlongs 8 runners

1 Capercaillie drawn 6
2 Midnight Martini drawn 1
3 Comedy Hall drawn 7
4 The Only Boss drawn 5
5 Lewy drawn 8
6 Sunnandaeg drawn 3
7 Jack My Boy drawn 2
8 Ballodair drawn 4

Selections are

Midnight Martini, Jack My Boy, Sunnandaeg, Ballodair

2.50 Class 5 5 furlongs 13 runners

1 Select Commitee drawn 8
2 Captain Scooby drawn 1
3 King Of Swords drawn 9
4 Dispol Grand drawn 5
5 Lucky Art drawn 12
6 Sir Geoffrey drawn 3
7 Guertino drawn 7
8 Nomoreblondes drawn 11
9 Diamond Blade drawn 6
10 Sands Crooner drawn 4
11 Lost In Paris drawn 13
12 Future Gem drawn 10
13 Kyzer Chief drawn 2

Selections in this race are

Captain Scooby, Kyzer Chief, Sir Geoffrey, Sand Crooner

Ripon 2.15 Result 6 ran, non runners Capercaillie & Sunnandaeg:

Won Jack My Boy 4/1

2nd Midnight Martini 4/1

T/C Ballodair

C.S.F £20.11

Tricast £119.09

Void Bets £24.00

Ripon 2.50 Result all 13 ran

Won Sir Geoffrey 11/1

2nd Sand Crooner 8/1

3rd Lucky Art 16/1

C.S.F £91.64

Profit for 2 races +£182.84
Running total for Ripon for Ripon + £182.84
Running total for all meetings +£98.84

[RedRum77]

Apologies if he’s been mentioned before but I keep seeing Phardante in a lot of pedigrees, especially on the mares side. How good is he, stamina wise?

I am no breeding expert but a quick glance suggest 2 and half miles, but they can stretch to three.

I don’t reconize any marathan stayers amongst his offspring, but having northern dancer in the bloodline speaks volumes, well it does for me.

Sorry I can’t answer your question better, but maybe in my research I’ll come across some of his progency.

[RedRum77]

I was writing this before the previous post was posted, but I’ll keep it the same.

I’d have thought this would be unsustainable, unless you get a couple of early ones up. I’d go for the more conservative approach of putting the four horses into 6 Toteswingers.

The main problem is that the racecourses nowadays have different, improved irrigation (ie, watering) systems, so there oughtn’t to be so much of a rail bias.

I only noted afterwards that your Ponte races are 5f, so maybe it was the 6f ones that I had a kamikaze approach to doing high draws. At that track in particular there used to be a problem with the ground being poached on the inside, due to too much racing.

Also, Doncaster, Shirley Shum Mishtake??? Shouldn’t it be the high draw over sprint trips?

Yes I thought so too, however this is an old system just revised by me. Maybe it was low when it was first used.

If the system doesn’t work at the end of the season then I know to drop it. Like you say it can be expensive so moderate stakes are called for, but it says it should get a forecast 7/10 tries and tricast 3/10.

[RedRum77]

Two more races both at Ripon

2.15 Class 3 6 Furlongs 8 runners

1 Capercaillie drawn 6
2 Midnight Martini drawn 1
3 Comedy Hall drawn 7
4 The Only Boss drawn 5
5 Lewy drawn 8
6 Sunnandaeg drawn 3
7 Jack My Boy drawn 2
8 Ballodair drawn 4

Selections are

Midnight Martini, Jack My Boy, Sunnandaeg, Ballodair

2.50 Class 5 5 furlongs 13 runners

1 Select Commitee drawn 8
2 Captain Scooby drawn 1
3 King Of Swords drawn 9
4 Dispol Grand drawn 5
5 Lucky Art drawn 12
6 Sir Geoffrey drawn 3
7 Guertino drawn 7
8 Nomoreblondes drawn 11
9 Diamond Blade drawn 6
10 Sands Crooner drawn 4
11 Lost In Paris drawn 13
12 Future Gem drawn 10
13 Kyzer Chief drawn 2

Selections in this race are

Captain Scooby, Kyzer Chief, Sir Geoffrey, Sand Crooner

[RedRum77]

The Data:

Newcastle 19/02/2000 4 miles 1 furlong, Going [b:1jjwdmav]Heavy[/b:1jjwdmav], (25 fences)
Class 2 0-150 5year old plus. 16 runners
[b:1jjwdmav]Tote Northern National Showcase Handicap chase (Eider)[/b:1jjwdmav]

Won Scotton Green by Ardoss & Grange Hill Girl (Workboy)
Prominent going well, every chance from 19th, led 3 out, clear last, all out.

2nd by a neck Ackos by Ardross & Trimar Gold (Goldhill)
Mistakes in rear, headway 21st, effort 4 out, stayed on strongly run in, just held.

3rd by 1.5 lengths Full Of Oats by Oats & Miss Melita (Paveh)
With leaders, led 7th to 3 out, kept on from last.

4th by 2 lengths Sillars Stalker by Stalker & Mittens (Run The Gaunlet)
Held up, headway and prominent 21st, outpaced 2 out, kept on from last.

5th by 9 lengths Forest Ivory by Ivory Hunter & Fair And Square (Crown Lease)
Chased leaders, ridden from 16, outpaced before 4 out.

6th Dist. Kendal Cavalier by Roselier and Kenda(Bargello)
Behind, reminders before 9th, never on terms.

Pulled Up Mister Muddypaws by Celtic Cone & Jane’s Daughter (Pitpan)
With leaders till blundered 5th, struggling 15th pulled up before 18th.

Pulled Up Bright Destiny by Destroyer & Bright Suggestion (Magnate)
Held up midfield, headway and prominent 16th, outpaced after 18th, pulled up 5 out.

Pulled Up Master Nova by Ra Nova & Maid Of The Manor (Hotfoot)
Close up, blundered 12th, lost place 16th, pulled up before 18th.

Pulled up Purevalue by Kefaah & Blaze Of Light(Blakeney)(
Held up, headway and prominent when blundered 17th, outpaced 20th, pulled up before 4 out.

Pulled up Peter by Meadowbrook & Peak Princess (Charlottown)
Behind, outpaced 13th, no danger after, pulled up before last.

Unseated Rider Kingdom Of Shades by Risen Star & Dancers Countess (Northern Dancer)
Not jumped well, midfield, struggling before 17th, behind when unseated rider 20th.

Unseated Rider Folly Road by Mister Lord & Lady Can (Cantab)
Mistakes, led to 5th, close 3rd when blundered and unseated rider 21st.

Refused Cherokee Boy by Mirror Boy & Cherry Side (General Ironside)
With leaders, led 5th to 9th, reminders 12th, weakening when blundered 18th, refused 21st.

Pulled Up Market Lass by Orchestra & Tor-Na-Grena (Torus)(
Held up, headway and prominent 15th, weakened 21st, pulled up 5 out.

Pulled Up Bally Lira by Lir & Ballyorney Girl (New Member)
Mistakes, always behind tailed off when pulled up before 2 out.

[RedRum77]

Just out of interest KC what parameters did you use.

Obvious winning form cannot be disputed, but some runner up might have got the trip but found one or two too good for them.

[RedRum77]

Trust me – I have done a lot of 4 mile research. I have on disc (I have recently changed computer so haven’t transferred across yet) a detailed analysis of each sire that has had a runner over four miles since 2000.

This was borne by the fact that I noticed, many years ago, that Strong Gale had the most appalling record (as a stallion) of producing 4 mile winners. He did have two – Ceannanas Mor – who won a poor race at Cheltenham replete with non stayers and backward types. The other was Risk Of Thunder who kept winning the La Touche Cup at Punchestown so I soon learned that XCountry races should not be considered.

The worst record for current stallions that have had more than ten runners without a winner is most definitely Accordion. He’s had plenty (certainly over twenty from memory). Presenting has only had one winner so far (Present M’Lord) and his record is getting worse. He’s had placed efforts such as Out The Black (twice) but much like Strong Gale they seem to hit a wall. This is a bit starnge as Presenting’s own sire Mtoto also had a placed horse in the Summer National (Exstoto).

The thing with picking four mile winners is that it’s not all about the stallion – far from it. Indeed most of the stamina comes from the dam although you do need a stout stallion too of course. Therefore it pays to also look at the damsire, which is why the likes of Offshore Account, Southern Vic, Hear The Echo and Idle Talk ALL conked out in the 2009 National when holding every chance two out and it’s why Razor Royale couldn’t go through with his effort at Ayr on Saturday. STRONG GALE was in all of them.

STRONG GALE was himself by Lord Gayle who is responsible for Chief Dan George’s sire Lord Americo. That’s why I will be backing against CDG when he next goes over four miles. Lord Americo is another with a bad record having had only one winner over the distance (Garryvoe) in a tin pot race at Stratford.

I like to go as far as three generations back when picking a four mile winner or placed horse. The damsires I look for mainly are MENELEK, VULGAN, CRASH COURSE, CANTAB, GALA PERFORMANCE, BRUSH ASIDE, PADDYS STREAM, RANDOM SHOT, ORCHESTRA, ARDROSS and of course my favourite stallion of all time ROSELIER.

BUSTED and ALLEGED have a marked influence in recent years with the likes of MONTELIMAR (Hedgehunter, Monty’s Pass), CRASH COURSE (Rough Quest, Esha Ness, Captain Dibble), CLEARLY BUST (Silver Birch) et al, but SADLERS WELLS’ stallions are now flooding the NH scene and now OSCAR, OLD VIC and SADDLERS HALL have all had four mile winners. KAYF TARA has had only two go over the distance thus far (THE PACKAGE & KORNATI KID) so he hasn’t had a good start but I fully expect him to produce a winner in the next 3-4 years. MILAN is the other to look out for.

Thanks for the interest KC, Iam no expect on breeding, but on another blog "The Grand National Blog" the is an explaination of why Presenting is such a bad sire for stayers of 4 miles and beyond.

Here’s why Presenting doesn’t get National types despite having

Busted

on the sire side.

It’s sire is Mtoto, by Busted, but Mtoto dam has only moderate stamina. Presenting’s dam is a

Perison Bold/Riverman

. A nice pedigree for a mile to mile and a quarter flat horse! And on the jumps side neither of those produce extreme stamina; two to two and half parts a balance between speed and stamina.

To properly get 4 miles and be a national type you need more extreme stamina in your bloodline than that.

The passage I quoted from was by Vimto on the Grand National Blog, Scottish Grand National 2010, post 111

[RedRum77]

I actually really enjoy reading your blog. Glad you’re sticking around! And I must say, I absolutely love the title of your blog .

Thanks, the real work begins to identify positive and negative sire when I do a race by race, sire by sire break down and if the enough data possibly a dam by dam break down. However for the moment it’s only concerning sires.

[RedRum77]

Well, Mordin did write something 15-20 years ago about horses should only run twice a year.

Are you positive it was Mordin and not Knight, Henrietta Knight that is after Best Mate.

[RedRum77]

You can have long losing runs with this, so you’ll need deep pockets . . .

I don’t have any draw statistics, but sometimes at N’cle, isn’t it the low numbers that have it in big fields?

Also I once had a theory about going for higher drawn horses at Ponte, as the low drawn ones have to slow down to go around the kink, but presumably that was baloney?

This is not my system, but one I found. Yes I agree you can go for long losing runs with this system and its best to keep to moderate stakes. Using a pound stake to keep things simple, but when I place my bets it will be 1/10 scale.

The draw bias was written for the system and each race all four seletions are covered in full bets, 36 bets equal stakes regardless of price.

Some bookies have different rules on how they treat the non runners, Ladbrokes for example treat any non runners in tricast as a forecast on the remaining selections and non runners in forecast as void bets. William hill give you a win single on the remaining runner in a forecast and tricast are treated the same as Ladbrokes.

To make things simple I’m taking out any bets where a non runner is involved.

[RedRum77]

Day one of the Tricast and Forecast system and it’s not a good start £84 down, however a system is not about finding every winner, but enough at a good price.

With the full flat season to come I am confident of making a profit with this system, but time will tell.

No candidates for rest of week scanning the week ahead to April 23 (friday).

[RedRum77]

Race 3 Nottingham 5.30 class 3 5f 10 runners

1 Existentialist (7)
2 Liberty Lady (10)
3 Boogie Waltzer (9)
4 Rio Mist (1)
5 Val C (6)
6 Bitter Honey (3)
7 Exceed Power (5)
8 Saucy Girl (4)
9 Southwark Newshawk (8)
10 Dispol Kabira (2)

Selections are Liberty Lady, Boogie Waltzer, Southwark Newshawk & Existentialist

Cost £36 (Nottingham running cost £36) (all track running cost £108)

Result Rio Mist drawn 1 13/2
Saucy Girl drawn 4 7/1
Boogie Waltzer drawn 8 9/2

Non-Runners Bitter Honey drawn 3, Dispol Kabira drawn 2

Profit Loss -£36.00
Running total for Nottingham -£36.00
Running total for all meetings -£84.00

[RedRum77]

Race 2: Doncaster 5.40 17/4/10 15 runners
Class 3
1 Jarrow (7)
2 Haadeeth (14)
3 Crown (15)
4 Raddy ‘Ell Pauline (11)
5 Victoire De Lyphar (6)
6 Mon Brav (13)
7 Toga Tiger (3)
8 Jack My Boy (12)
9 Ventura Cove (5)
10 Deacon Blues (2)
11 Masked Dance (9)
12 Bossy Kitty (1)
13 Alice Alleyne (10)
14 Flaneur (4)
15 Amenable (8)

Selections are Bossy Kitty, Deacon Blues, Toga Tiger & Flaneur

Cost £36 (Doncaster running cost £36) (Total Running cost £72)

Result Victoire De Lyphar Drawn 6 22/1
Jack My Boy Drawn 12 6/1
Deacon Blues Drawn 2 5/1

Non Runners Alice Alleyne drawn 10, Masked Dance drawn 9

Profit loss -£36.00
Running total for Doncaster -£36.00
Running total for all meetings -£48.00

[RedRum77]

Day One: Races at Thirsk (4.10) (class 3) 5f

1 Waveband (11)
2 Tasmeen (5)
3 Whozthecat (2)
4 Magical Macey (6)
5 Tilly’s Tale (10)
6 Confessional (4)
7 Breathless Kiss (1)
8 Ignatieff (9)
9 Dispol Keasha (3)
10 Esuvia (13)
11 Pilgrim Dancer (7)
12 Angel Of Fashion (8)
13 Durham Express (12)

Selections from this race will be Esuvia, Durham Express, Waveband & Tilly’s Tale.

Cost £36 (Running cost from Thirsk £36) (Running cost from all meetings £36).

Result Whozthecat drawn 2 10/1
Confessional drawn 4 8/1
Tilly’s Tale drawn 10 14/1

Non runners Durham express drawn 12, Pilgram Dancer drawn 7

No Returns apart from void bets Durham Edition would be in six forecast and 18 Tricast (24 bets) £24.00

Profit loss -£12.00
Running total for Thirsk -£12.00
Running total for all meetings -£12.00

[RedRum77]

Good luck with this

RedRum77

and I hope you make a good profit for you.

Thanks billions, did tried this a few seasons ago.
To a 25p unit £9 outlay and it did gave me massive payouts of £900+ one season and £800 the following season. However does it pay for the full season is what I am trying to find out. I know I missed about 2 weeks of the season but I don’t think it will effect the results that much.

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