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Recently I’ve come across the dosage system.
Now this is nothing new to me, but applying it to national hunt racing is.I must admit I was keen on Niche Market when I saw the figures, but someone warned me that Presenting progency don’t stay despite Busted being his grandsire and the dosage figures suggesting that he will.
So I began to take note of Presenting offsprings and was coming to conclusion that they don’t stay, but was it a lack of class. Niche Market was what I considered to be Prsenting best chance in the national, but he pulled up at the 29th fence.
Positive sires came to my attention because despite weight I fancied Black Apalachi, Comply Or Die & Vic Venturi all Old Vic progencys and so was the winner Don’t Push It.
This led me to think are the positive and negative sires for staying extreme distances of 4 miles in top class company (class 1 & 2).
So taking my research back to 2000 and covering
Eider Chase (Newcastle, class 2, 4 miles)
2000 Scotton Green
2001 Narrow Water
2002 This is Serious
2004 Tyneandthyneagain
2006 Philson Run
2007 Nil Desperandum
2008 Comply Or Die
2009 MerigoNational Hunt Chase (Cheltenham, class 2, 4 miles)
2000 Relaxation
2002 Rith Dubh
2003 Sudden Shock
2004 Native Emperor
2005 Another Rum
2006 Hot Weld
2007 Bulters Cabin
2008 Old Benny
2009 Tricky Trickster
2010 Poker De SivolaMidlands National (Uttoxeter, class 1, 4 miles 1 furlong 110 yards)
2000 Ackzo
2002 The Bunny Boiler
2003 Intelligent
2005 Philson Run
2006 GVA Ireland
2007 Baron Windrush
2008 Himalayan Trail
2009 Russian Trigger
2010 SynchronisedGrand National Chase (Aintree, class 1, 4 miles 4 furlongs)
2000 Papillon
2001 Red Marauder
2002 Bindaree
2003 Monty’s Pass
2004 Amberleigh House
2005 Hedgehunter
2006 Numbersixvalverde
2007 Silver Birch
2008 Comply Or Die
2009 Mon Mome
2010 Don’t Push ItScottish Grand National (Ayr, class 1, 4 miles 110 yards)
2000 Paris Pike
2001 Gingembre
2002 Take Control
2003 Ryalux
2004 Grey Abbey
2005 Joes Edge
2006 Run For Paddy
2007 Hot Weld
2008 Iris De Balme
2009 Hello Bud
2010 MerigoThese are my winners in the most important 4 mile plus races of the national hunt races (unless someone can provide details of a 4 mile class 1 or 2 race I’d missed)
Will start a sire by sire breakdown of these races.
I actually really enjoy reading your blog. Glad you’re sticking around! And I must say, I absolutely love the title of your blog .
I actually really enjoy reading your blog. Glad you’re sticking around! And I must say, I absolutely love the title of your blog .
Thanks, the real work begins to identify positive and negative sire when I do a race by race, sire by sire break down and if the enough data possibly a dam by dam break down. However for the moment it’s only concerning sires.Trust me – I have done a lot of 4 mile research. I have on disc (I have recently changed computer so haven’t transferred across yet) a detailed analysis of each sire that has had a runner over four miles since 2000.
This was borne by the fact that I noticed, many years ago, that Strong Gale had the most appalling record (as a stallion) of producing 4 mile winners. He did have two – Ceannanas Mor – who won a poor race at Cheltenham replete with non stayers and backward types. The other was Risk Of Thunder who kept winning the La Touche Cup at Punchestown so I soon learned that XCountry races should not be considered.
The worst record for current stallions that have had more than ten runners without a winner is most definitely Accordion. He’s had plenty (certainly over twenty from memory). Presenting has only had one winner so far (Present M’Lord) and his record is getting worse. He’s had placed efforts such as Out The Black (twice) but much like Strong Gale they seem to hit a wall. This is a bit starnge as Presenting’s own sire Mtoto also had a placed horse in the Summer National (Exstoto).
The thing with picking four mile winners is that it’s not all about the stallion – far from it. Indeed most of the stamina comes from the dam although you do need a stout stallion too of course. Therefore it pays to also look at the damsire, which is why the likes of Offshore Account, Southern Vic, Hear The Echo and Idle Talk ALL conked out in the 2009 National when holding every chance two out and it’s why Razor Royale couldn’t go through with his effort at Ayr on Saturday. STRONG GALE was in all of them.
STRONG GALE was himself by Lord Gayle who is responsible for Chief Dan George’s sire Lord Americo. That’s why I will be backing against CDG when he next goes over four miles. Lord Americo is another with a bad record having had only one winner over the distance (Garryvoe) in a tin pot race at Stratford.
I like to go as far as three generations back when picking a four mile winner or placed horse. The damsires I look for mainly are MENELEK, VULGAN, CRASH COURSE, CANTAB, GALA PERFORMANCE, BRUSH ASIDE, PADDYS STREAM, RANDOM SHOT, ORCHESTRA, ARDROSS and of course my favourite stallion of all time ROSELIER.
BUSTED and ALLEGED have a marked influence in recent years with the likes of MONTELIMAR (Hedgehunter, Monty’s Pass), CRASH COURSE (Rough Quest, Esha Ness, Captain Dibble), CLEARLY BUST (Silver Birch) et al, but SADLERS WELLS’ stallions are now flooding the NH scene and now OSCAR, OLD VIC and SADDLERS HALL have all had four mile winners. KAYF TARA has had only two go over the distance thus far (THE PACKAGE & KORNATI KID) so he hasn’t had a good start but I fully expect him to produce a winner in the next 3-4 years. MILAN is the other to look out for.
Trust me – I have done a lot of 4 mile research. I have on disc (I have recently changed computer so haven’t transferred across yet) a detailed analysis of each sire that has had a runner over four miles since 2000.
This was borne by the fact that I noticed, many years ago, that Strong Gale had the most appalling record (as a stallion) of producing 4 mile winners. He did have two – Ceannanas Mor – who won a poor race at Cheltenham replete with non stayers and backward types. The other was Risk Of Thunder who kept winning the La Touche Cup at Punchestown so I soon learned that XCountry races should not be considered.
The worst record for current stallions that have had more than ten runners without a winner is most definitely Accordion. He’s had plenty (certainly over twenty from memory). Presenting has only had one winner so far (Present M’Lord) and his record is getting worse. He’s had placed efforts such as Out The Black (twice) but much like Strong Gale they seem to hit a wall. This is a bit starnge as Presenting’s own sire Mtoto also had a placed horse in the Summer National (Exstoto).
The thing with picking four mile winners is that it’s not all about the stallion – far from it. Indeed most of the stamina comes from the dam although you do need a stout stallion too of course. Therefore it pays to also look at the damsire, which is why the likes of Offshore Account, Southern Vic, Hear The Echo and Idle Talk ALL conked out in the 2009 National when holding every chance two out and it’s why Razor Royale couldn’t go through with his effort at Ayr on Saturday. STRONG GALE was in all of them.
STRONG GALE was himself by Lord Gayle who is responsible for Chief Dan George’s sire Lord Americo. That’s why I will be backing against CDG when he next goes over four miles. Lord Americo is another with a bad record having had only one winner over the distance (Garryvoe) in a tin pot race at Stratford.
I like to go as far as three generations back when picking a four mile winner or placed horse. The damsires I look for mainly are MENELEK, VULGAN, CRASH COURSE, CANTAB, GALA PERFORMANCE, BRUSH ASIDE, PADDYS STREAM, RANDOM SHOT, ORCHESTRA, ARDROSS and of course my favourite stallion of all time ROSELIER.
BUSTED and ALLEGED have a marked influence in recent years with the likes of MONTELIMAR (Hedgehunter, Monty’s Pass), CRASH COURSE (Rough Quest, Esha Ness, Captain Dibble), CLEARLY BUST (Silver Birch) et al, but SADLERS WELLS’ stallions are now flooding the NH scene and now OSCAR, OLD VIC and SADDLERS HALL have all had four mile winners. KAYF TARA has had only two go over the distance thus far (THE PACKAGE & KORNATI KID) so he hasn’t had a good start but I fully expect him to produce a winner in the next 3-4 years. MILAN is the other to look out for.
Thanks for the interest KC, Iam no expect on breeding, but on another blog "The Grand National Blog" the is an explaination of why Presenting is such a bad sire for stayers of 4 miles and beyond.
Here’s why Presenting doesn’t get National types despite having
Busted
on the sire side.
It’s sire is Mtoto, by Busted, but Mtoto dam has only moderate stamina. Presenting’s dam is a
Perison Bold/Riverman
. A nice pedigree for a mile to mile and a quarter flat horse! And on the jumps side neither of those produce extreme stamina; two to two and half parts a balance between speed and stamina.
To properly get 4 miles and be a national type you need more extreme stamina in your bloodline than that.
The passage I quoted from was by Vimto on the Grand National Blog, Scottish Grand National 2010, post 111
Just out of interest KC what parameters did you use.
Obvious winning form cannot be disputed, but some runner up might have got the trip but found one or two too good for them.
Yeah, that does happen. In fact Old Vic hit the post before Comply Or Die won his Eider and National.
Kicking King had won the Gold Cup for Old Vic but until I saw a sign that Old Vic could produce marathon stayers I left them alone. That sign came at Doncaster in February 2008 (just before Comply Or Die won his Eider) when Leading Man charged home in a four mile race won by King Harald. The very fact he was staying on helped the penny drop just in time!
Funnily enough I backed King Harald in that race because his damsire Kemal was responsible for Rhyme N Reason and he also had Gala Performance in there who was responsible for Grand National stalwarts West Tip and Greasepaint.
Merigo is an interesting horse too. I didn’t back him when he won his Eider because again I wanted a sign that Pistolet Bleu could produce such a winner. In the back of my mind I thought he could because Pistolet Bleu’s own sire, Top Ville, was also responsible for Un Desperado who sired both Nil Desperandum and Philson Run to win Eiders. Also in Merigo was Tip Moss, who nearly produced a National winner in Mely Moss.
For me, Denman is key to whether Presenting’s truly stay four miles+. Unfortuantely if he does go for the National it now looks as though we will have to guess whether he will see the trip out. Personally, and as much as I love him, I will be against him……unless something between now and then leads me to think otherwise.
The stallion that really shocked me when he had his four mile winner was OSCAR. Never in a million years did I think they would possess the requisite stoutness but Tricky Trickster did it but in the main I think this was down to the heavy influence of MONTELIMAR (Hedgehunter & Monty’s Pass) and MENELEK (Rag Trade & Hallo Dandy). And then three days later Hold The Pin nearly went and won the Midlands National.
Therefore I already like the look of Oscar Time for Aintree next year. He also has MENELEK in him so needs to be on anyone’s short or long list!
"cuinan128" wrote: I actually really enjoy reading your blog. Glad you’re sticking around! And I must say, I absolutely love the title of your blog .
What’s this man’s game?!
The Data:
Newcastle 19/02/2000 4 miles 1 furlong, Going [b:1jjwdmav]Heavy[/b:1jjwdmav], (25 fences)
Class 2 0-150 5year old plus. 16 runners
[b:1jjwdmav]Tote Northern National Showcase Handicap chase (Eider)[/b:1jjwdmav]Won Scotton Green by Ardoss & Grange Hill Girl (Workboy)
Prominent going well, every chance from 19th, led 3 out, clear last, all out.2nd by a neck Ackos by Ardross & Trimar Gold (Goldhill)
Mistakes in rear, headway 21st, effort 4 out, stayed on strongly run in, just held.3rd by 1.5 lengths Full Of Oats by Oats & Miss Melita (Paveh)
With leaders, led 7th to 3 out, kept on from last.4th by 2 lengths Sillars Stalker by Stalker & Mittens (Run The Gaunlet)
Held up, headway and prominent 21st, outpaced 2 out, kept on from last.5th by 9 lengths Forest Ivory by Ivory Hunter & Fair And Square (Crown Lease)
Chased leaders, ridden from 16, outpaced before 4 out.6th Dist. Kendal Cavalier by Roselier and Kenda(Bargello)
Behind, reminders before 9th, never on terms.Pulled Up Mister Muddypaws by Celtic Cone & Jane’s Daughter (Pitpan)
With leaders till blundered 5th, struggling 15th pulled up before 18th.Pulled Up Bright Destiny by Destroyer & Bright Suggestion (Magnate)
Held up midfield, headway and prominent 16th, outpaced after 18th, pulled up 5 out.Pulled Up Master Nova by Ra Nova & Maid Of The Manor (Hotfoot)
Close up, blundered 12th, lost place 16th, pulled up before 18th.Pulled up Purevalue by Kefaah & Blaze Of Light(Blakeney)(
Held up, headway and prominent when blundered 17th, outpaced 20th, pulled up before 4 out.Pulled up Peter by Meadowbrook & Peak Princess (Charlottown)
Behind, outpaced 13th, no danger after, pulled up before last.Unseated Rider Kingdom Of Shades by Risen Star & Dancers Countess (Northern Dancer)
Not jumped well, midfield, struggling before 17th, behind when unseated rider 20th.Unseated Rider Folly Road by Mister Lord & Lady Can (Cantab)
Mistakes, led to 5th, close 3rd when blundered and unseated rider 21st.Refused Cherokee Boy by Mirror Boy & Cherry Side (General Ironside)
With leaders, led 5th to 9th, reminders 12th, weakening when blundered 18th, refused 21st.Pulled Up Market Lass by Orchestra & Tor-Na-Grena (Torus)(
Held up, headway and prominent 15th, weakened 21st, pulled up 5 out.Pulled Up Bally Lira by Lir & Ballyorney Girl (New Member)
Mistakes, always behind tailed off when pulled up before 2 out.Apologies if he’s been mentioned before but I keep seeing Phardante in a lot of pedigrees, especially on the mares side. How good is he, stamina wise?
Apologies if he’s been mentioned before but I keep seeing Phardante in a lot of pedigrees, especially on the mares side. How good is he, stamina wise?
I am no breeding expert but a quick glance suggest 2 and half miles, but they can stretch to three.
I don’t reconize any marathan stayers amongst his offspring, but having northern dancer in the bloodline speaks volumes, well it does for me.
Sorry I can’t answer your question better, but maybe in my research I’ll come across some of his progency.
Just gotten Raceform Interactive, and Damsire is one of the fields, which means I can do a search for the ones with Phardante, but I think it will only cover the past 5 years. Will do it sometime over the weekend. Not now, as I’m not sure that RI is friendly, regarding being used at the same time as other packages.
Here are his best as a sire, from the RP site, and I can’t say there is a universally famous name amongst them.
HORSE DAM’S SIRE WINS PLACES RUNS £ PRIZE RPR
Truckers Tavern Beau Chapeau 6 10 34 248,678 167
Hanakham Carlburg 5 4 18 81,274 160
Urubande Gulf Pearl 5 4 14 107,258 157
The Toiseach Master Owen 10 5 23 77,124 155
Go Roger Go Strong Gale 9 11 36 150,213 153
Niki Dee Furry Glen 5 10 24 127,741 153
Bog Frog Pauper 12 6 26 401,079 152
Killusty Royal Match 7 1 11 29,894 151
Duke Of Buckingham Crash Course 8 12 39 78,301 149
King Wah Glory Caribo 8 6 26 63,385 148
Sir Dante Tumble Wind 9 4 33 70,569 146
Distant Thunder Strong Gale 4 11 30 85,179 145
Phardante Flyer Menelek 5 3 15 38,900 144
The Carrig Rua Lucifer 5 6 21 25,345 143
Bell Staffboy Tarqogan 7 9 33 39,225 142
Dines Strong Gale 7 11 29 62,533 142
Tighten Your Belt Deep Run 3 7 19 28,128 142
Butches Boy Young Emperor 8 16 46 71,674 141
Cloone Bridge Le Prince 5 10 36 46,245 141
The Baltimore Man Cardinal Flower 5 2 13 30,040 141
Brambleshine Deep Run 3 12 23 23,267 140
Punting Pete Monksfield 3 7 41 22,559 140
Sublime Fellow Kampala 7 13 36 44,390 140
Blue Dante Strong Gale 2 0 2 19,257 139
Briery Fox Strong Gale 6 10 31 122,205 139
Sister Stephanie Lucifer 6 6 19 34,526 139
Wisley Wonder Laurence O 9 9 43 51,363 139
Facts Not Fiction Furry Glen 5 9 45 106,368 138
Political Panto Pitpan 1 3 10 4,359 138
Dantes Reef Take A Reef 5 9 32 62,660 137
Kimanicky Prince Tenderfoot 2 3 13 37,470 137
Russell Road Strong Gale 5 5 16 22,429 137
Dana Point Balidar 3 8 15 23,428 136
Indian Scout Kemal 4 2 12 36,556 136
Woodville Star Menelek 6 15 28 36,271 136
Frazer Island Random Shot 3 9 34 31,975 135Apparently, Phardante has had 13 performances as a damsire,at 32 furlongs or greater, for zero victories:-
Haven’t attempted exporting yet, so I’ve handwritten the list:-
Snoopy Loopy
Caught At Dawn x2
Wild Cane Ridge
Sound Accord
Always Something
Chelsea Harbour x2
Money Line x2
Coe x2
KillyglenPresenting’s record is 1/30 , for a £21 loss.
Accordion is 0 for 21.
I think these are just over the past 5 years.
Surprisngly, with all the talk about Old Vic, his record at 4 miles+ is 3-31, for breakeven. So, Comply Or Die’s victories in the Eider and GN, and Don’t Push It must be the only ones.
Roselier is 5-75 for a £32 loss as a Sire, and 1-23 for a £17 loss as a Damsire (at 4m+).
[b:3h190nng]Analysis of Eider chase 2000
With a top weight rated 17 pound below the ceiling, this hardly looked the stongest renewal of what old – timers still refer to as the Eider Chase.
Only the most relentless stayers survived on extremely testing ground, but SCOTTON GREEN has thrived since stepped up to Marathon trips and put up his best performance yet in holding the late charge of ACKZO, having looked set for a clear cut win running to the last.
As at Catterick a week earlier, he ran very lazily in front, which should keep him on a handy mark. Moreover, his jumping is a major asset in these long distance slogs, and he will surely continue to give a good account in such races.
ACKZO up in distance and class on only his 3rd run over fences, came home with a rare flourish from way back under a determined ride and ran a blinder. However, he was distressed afterwards, and the combination of a hard race and some very sketchy jumping suggests it might not pay to take too short a price about him next time.
FULL OF OATS, 2nd in this race last season, ran splendidly again, jumping boldly, and retain bags of enthusiasm despite advancing years.
SILLARS STALKER also returned to form with conditions to suit, but FOREST IVORY has not responded to blinkers since his fine Welsh national run and remains devilish difficult to win with.
Most of the remainders were beaten off a long way out.KENDAL CAVALIER has not shown anything like his old zest this season, KINGDOM OF SHADES paid for poor jumping and PUREVALUE found this extreme stamina test more than he could cope with.
PETER ran badly in this race for a second year running, CHEROKEE BOY seemed unsuited by heavy ground, but FOLLY ROAD was in the process of running a bold race when he departed. MISTER MUDDYPAWS, close behind the winner at Catterick a week earlier, showed little zest from an early stage.[/b:3h190nng]
Thanks, the real work begins to identify positive and negative sire when I do a race by race, sire by sire break down and if the enough data possibly a dam by dam break down. However for the moment it’s only concerning sires.
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