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Steve I reckon Christopher Marlow has been laid out for the Derby, even Tapit’s sire AP Indy was middle distance and the family line oozes class and stamina and look at Seattle Slew record, topped with Gaileo on the dam side. Whether he wins it or not is open to question but the key is getting them to the race and with John Gosden training him and his wife being part owner, I can imagine the earache he would be getting if he don’t get him there fit and raring to go. 33’s was still available last time I looked and although I like Richard Pankhurst for the 2000 I got 16’s on him I don’t see him as a Derby horse yet and I don’t think Godolphin will run him as such as they tend to have quite a few in their locker to choose from. Your right about Epsom though it says the camber on the run in tends to unbalance horses as does coming down the hill so if you have a horse that has experienced it in racing that is likely a bonus to one that has yet to encounter it. I also think the Michael Tabor connection is interesting as he is known to like to lay good money down and made his fortune that way I believe. For the bookies to lay 33’s then move to 25’s shows I think some big money was being laid somewhere. What I don’t understand is Paddy Power & Ladbrokes have 33’s and they usually have an ear to the ground so the money wasn’t being laid with them which is what I would have expected to have seen.
Steve how do you rate Christopher Marlow as he has interesting owners Michael Tabor and Rachel Hood, trained by John Gosden and an interesting pedigree. I had 33’s about this horse the other day and was on line betting when a message appeared saying the book price had changed to 25’s which would indicate that either the bookies had a major change of heart or a lot of money had been laid which I suspect may be the latter especially with Michael Tabor’s background. he would be in the know as to how good the O’Brien horses are. The horse has a Gaileo line on the dam side and the sires line shows A.P Indy and Seattle Slew so looks like he has stamina as well.
I have to agree Steve is on the nail I had 33/1 everything screamed the horse Killer Instinct was bred to win the 2000 I was chuffed when it got backed down to 2/1, he ran at Newbury and I went to watch him run and he didn’t have a hard race at all and the whip wasn’t even raised I recall as he was ridden just using the jockey urging him forward and finished 2nd I was more than happy with that, the next thing he was pulled and entered into a French race which he won standing on his head. I am still convinced he would have won at Newmarket as well. I did wonder how much the bookies were responsible for his being pulled but in the end put it down to sheer bad luck but I did back him AP with decent wedge and I lost the lot but that’s racing for you. But cant complain because I previously had Lend A Hand ( 2nd 33/1) Bahar 2nd 20/1) City Honours (2nd 20/1) and Cape Verdi (won 7/1) for all the Classics in singles, doubles, trebles, and accumulators each way so the bookies paid out handsomely . You pays your money and you take your choice that’s horse racing for you.
Let’s hope the groundsman reads this and turns on the sprinklers in good time.
A couple of days ago when having a punt I got 25/1 about Erveyda and shes been cut after her win today quite rightly so but I also got 33/1 for Fadhayyl which was to good to miss based on my analysis and she has been cut to 16/1 anyone have any idea why, has she run recently as that seems quite a difference.
The other factor I discovered bearing in mind this was in the 90’s was that the thing that ruins a horse race is when it is using up energy fighting the bridle and wanting its head, all the pent up energy was being held in check ready for the moment but the horse didn’t know that and wanted to get to the front as they like to lead the pack as the weaker ones get attacked by the wolves in the wild. When a horse travelled especially when it travelled by air is that days before hand a sedative of some description was administered to reduce the horses fear of flying for example to the tracks. I believe the same may have been true for horsebox transfer by road but this was like administered if required at the time. Those travelling by air had to be administered prior to the travel and was topped up on the day if required. Therefore when you look at the results of the horses from Ireland, Godolphin and France I have wondered about this as this would surely calm the horse down and would be less on its toes. I am not saying there was anything illegal going on at all but I was told was a requirement by the airlines flying the horses. Also the horses themselves bearing in mind there age was often not used to big crowds so would be schooled not to over react such as public gallops where there was often a lot of attention with cameras clicking etc. Not sure how much difference this made but I was told it was all the little things that add up but on the day you had to have lady luck as well and position the horse and press the button when it was judged by the jockey to get the best of the horse and it was fine lines that was often the difference.
Firstly thank you for not lampooning me about the question like WTF doesn’t he even know that, sure I did and a lot more besides but I wanted to see the response before I share with you all some knowledge I picked up along the way. My ex-son in law worked for several Newmarket stables and I had the opportunity to look around SMS yard who looed after the Maktoum-Al-Maktoum horses and James Fanshawe yard and there was a world of difference in the facilities for starters at the time and probably still is. Such as indoor walkers and pools and running tracks etc. Which all helps in getting a horse to peak condition exercise wise and doesn’t just rely on the gallops. I was also told that weeks before a big race certain horses are given the best quality oats mixed with vitamims and supplements, nothing illegal but expensive feed. No expense is spared and the horses are treated with special care and attention by the handlers to make sure they are well catered and don’t injure themselves.
I asked the question about why sometimes a jockey in the box at the off stands up in the stirrups when the boxes are loading and I was told this is to take the weight off the horses spine as they are young horses and its not good to have the weight in one place. I asked so its better to have a lighter jockey on top then and was met with laughter, some think so but lighter jockeys are a hinderance to the horse and to the race. Its all about the moveable riding weight and the deadweight made-up which is the difference. Also the top riding weight of 8’6 is achieved when the jockey is experienced and therefore can eat more to burn the calories and by this nature is stronger throughout the much needed run in at the last furlong or so. They don’t have to sweat it out of them so much to attain their riding weight in the gym beforehand. In handicap terms 3lb is a length difference and don’t forget this is weight which is deadweight and cannot be shifted.
I tried an experiment I carried 2 5lb bags of potatoes from my local supermarket to the car some distance away by the top so they were hanging from my arms and soon my arms ached and the cramp got so bad I had to put them down before I reached the car. The following week I did the same but when my right arm cramped I passed the bag across to my other hand and although this carried extra weight it relaxed my other arm so I could transfer it back later and I did this all the way without putting the bags down. Simple but it showed to me how the muscles cramp under dead weight.
The top owners, yards have the top riding weight jockeys in most cases for the big races and by the nature their horses carry less dead weight but there is something else as well which I will share later if you are interested.
The problem with RP is that John Gosden doesn’t usually have his string on fire until late May early June and I don’t see this being any different. I also think that Hottenanny would be an interesting runner if he comes over with Sunset Glow. I just think that Glen Eagles and Highland Reel are very close but the latter has the edge for me and is better priced.
Agree with the comment about Found she does look a good Oaks bet but price doesn’t appeal the 1000 is intriguing and I reckon if ground on the easy side then the extra stamina comes into play and this is where Found & Together Forever will have a slight edge. But there are a lot that appear on the radar purely on breeding lines and instinct and are more attractive prices especially if the ground is more firmer. Osaila, Queen Nefertiti and Sunset Glow look possibles and then there is Tiggy Wiggy will she have the stamina, she will have the pace for sure. But apart from the breeding I also look at likely jockey’s as I believe this makes a big difference for several reasons. knowledge and experience of the track, big race experience and jockey’s riding weight. Question Steve are all the horses carrying the same weight ?
In the late 90’s I once wrote a small book and put together a racing template and sold it to individuals after having a bit of success using a template model I built up over a 10 year period. I left it alone then around 15 years back I revisited it and was amazed to see the same pattern repeated for those 15 years. That for me is not a coincidence to see a similar trait repeated for very nearly 25 years. That is why I came back to the forum as the people on here in the main seem very reasoned knowledgeable people who take their racing seriously.I reckon Highland Heel has all the right credentials for the 2000 and at 10/1 looks a steal especially if as likely Ryan Moore will be the jockey on the day aboard. I am struggling with the 1000 although Found and Together Forever look appealing I think there are many other good possibilities at decent prices including 33’s about Qualifying especially if it is fast ground at Newmarket. The Oaks looks like an O’Brien field again bit to early to call and the Derby Coolmore line up looks good but I was taken by the John Gosden horse Christopher Marlow this morning so was on at 33’s and was in the middle of my laying a few bets when lo and behold the site flashed up an alert saying that the price had just changed from 33’s to 25 so my last couple fell short but it indicates some good money being taken for this horse and he is joint owned by Michael Tabor and Rachel Hood. This horse has already won at Epsom and looks interesting and worth a punt. Watch out for Sir Isaac Newton on paper he has the right credentials but still has to a do lot more but at 20’s I fancy him more than I do Ol’Man River and my gut says SIN will take his place in the field where as I have my doubts over the OMR horse.
Last year I nailed Taghrooda and Dazzling early on for the Oaks as my ones to watch and it came together nicely but delayed my punt so only got 25’s when Steve Caution mentioned the horse on the forum as well convincing me to go for it. So Steve what is your fancy this time around?
When I first started logging and looking at the trends it was always Sadler’s Wells but of course that particular gene has been bred into the Galileo line so it would appear that the key genes are passed down from the stallion to their sons and the likes of Coolmore and Godolphin spend big money on buying up their protogee knowing there is a strong chance the genes will have been passed down and run their race campaigns accordingly. The old saying the cream always rises to the top is true in most Group 1 races. I agree with the Mr Prospector for good to firm and this is usually the type of ground come early May that can be found in Newmarket. So I guess its how the horse is likely to take to the ground and the battle uphill in the final furlong if they are up for the battle. Or is it as I suspect its the jockeys that are on board that make a big difference and in particular their top riding weight, with the best jockeys riding for the top stables and owners that really tip the balance and are likely or not to be riding the best horses.
Question are all the horses carrying the same weight for the race ? therein I believe you have part of the solution, I think you will be surprised from what I uncovered in my racing analysis many years ago and again more recently as well. The bookies know this from very early on and price accordingly and this is where I believe a lot of the people in the forum are very astute in their ante-post analysis which is usually very good and I enjoy reading.
I am a new user this time around but I have been taken with the quality of the discussion and the individual knowledge especially from Steve Caution and others. I myself have studied horse racing breeding for a long while and have my own ideas about the Classic Racing. My son in law was connected to a number of stables around the Newmarket area including SMS and James Fanshawe with my greatest disappointment when his horse Environment Friend got taken out around the bend at Epsom ridden by George Duffield just before the home straight in the 1991 Derby won by Generous. Does anyone recall this ?. My own thought is that the horse wasn’t strong enough to handle the hustle and bustle and got unbalanced so could not get into his usual stride in the run in. He subsequently went on to win the Eclipse at odds of 28/1.
My question is why do you think the Danzig / Mr Prospector lines appears to be the main indicators when running at Newmarket in the Guineas both for 1000 especially and the 2000. Is there something about the build of the horse that gets passed down in the breeding or is it just a coincidence. I note that Danzig lines tend to have more speed but enough stamina that can last the mile. I also note that Sadler Wells and Northern Dancer lines have been strong over the decades and none more so now than Galileo which is standout but this breed is noted for its battling qualities and appears to have stamina to burn and courage where it matters most in the run in. Sorry I didn’t mean to ramble on but I am interested to hear your thoughts on this with the Classics coming up shortly.
What chance do you think of Rain Forest if he turns up, looking at pedigree and running form he obviously likes good/firm and is used to an undulating track. I have not heard him metioned anywhere else which is a little surprising as Rain Forest appears to fit the bill for a Derby horse.
I happen to think that foaling date does play a part but only in that the horse with an early foaling date is a little stronger and a little more mature dependent on racing experience. But for me it is more about the ability and the riding weight of the jockey.
Question if you had 2 top jockeys one weighing 8st and the other 8st 6lb and they had simlair riding ability who would have an advantage?
Very interesting reading Zarkarva, you obviously know your horse racing knowledge.
For my part my ex-son in law worked for a number of Newmarket trainers and let me have a few pointers and there are a number of things that the average man in the street wouldnt think about. Breeding is a big concern as is the fitness levels of the horse but age and experience come into the equation for the big races.
Fair play Albrookes you called the defection of Tabassum, what chance do you think Special Duty has, do you think she is a worthy favourite or one that should be backed against.
I must say I am very impressed with some of the individuals knowledge and rational in these posts. For me this is the first time I have come across the forum and I find it very informative
one question I would like to pose is which of the runners do you think Moore and Fallon will be abord or is to early to say
I emailed the Stoute office to try and get a bit of info on her to put in a piece for next week and his representative emailed back that she will not run. Maybe she’ll do a Binocular.
I would be interested to know did he give any reason why she won’t run and if so does that mean Joanna might be given a shot at the Newmarket race
