Forum Replies Created
- Posts
Black Apalaches best chance has surely past but that being said if he gets to the front in that rhythmical jumping pattern again who knows.
Call me whimsical but Irish raptor is still a horse I fancy at 80’s.
I disagree. Black Apalachi reminds me of Brave Highlander and Amberleigh House. A horse who just comes to life around Aintree. I still maintain that Brave Highlander would have won in 98 and 01 had luck not gone against the poor old lad. He was 13 on 01 and was still looking like a winner before getting took out by those damn loose horses!
And again with Amberleigh House; proof that a horse in this day and age can still win at the big age of 12. I think Black Apalachi could still have another 2/3 Nationals in him.
If you asked me a couple of months ago; i’d say Irish Raptor wouldn’t have a prayer, no way would he stay! But then i started to think… with the first lap usually being just hunting round; the race is almost just a 2,5 race, only they jump 13 fences beforehand and we know what Irish Raptor can do at 2,5 and over those fences, so i’ve had a change of heart over his National chances… 80’s are very good value
Neither one of them have perfect jumping records and we all know what Kauto’s like. One could fall and bring the other down very easily. As far as i’m concerned this is still an open race.
This will be my third year of backing Black Apalachi (yup i had him at 66/1 in ’08 too
) and i am still confident he will win it. He will take a hammering from the handicapper for winning the Bobbyjo chase last year, but there are so many other possible entries who if entered will make his life alot easier, so the weight isn’t too much of a factor… neither is the going either. Just a matter of getting round.I really like Keenans Future. I pointed him out in the Becher Chase thread back in november when he had pretty big odds and afterwards he was backed down considerably. He’s ran well in a couple of 3,6’s, so i would imagine he would stay and i wouldn’t think he would have too much weight on his back…?
Preists Leap will be another pick of mine. I had him last year at 150/1 and i think had he not injured himself coming to the second last he would have been in the frame, heck he might have won it!
I really hope they run Silver Birch again. He’s a smashing horse and he was running like a treat before coming down last year. The way he ran in some of those Cross Country chases also lead me to believe he could make the frame again, provided the pace isn’t too fierce.
Ollie Magern deserves another crack. It was a shame he came down so early last year, but it he was ran again this year he should give us something to think about.
I did consider Garde Champetre, but i’m just not convinced he will be entered.
Big Fella Thanks caught my eye last year. I remember taking a note to myself a couple of weeks after the race that he could be a threat this year.
There is a pretty simple reason why Mon Mome finished so far away in 2008. Watch Bechers Brook second time round. Butlers Cabin landed right infront of him and stops him dead in his tracks. Mon Mome was right there in the leading 5/6 before that. The same thing nearly happened again last year.
Knowhere i still think could shock everyone. I know he was pulled up last year, but he has hampered 3/4 times throughout that race and i think it’d be unfair to say he doesn’t have a prayer.
What we need to remember is that Clan Royal had never won over 2 miles 5 before winning the Becher in ’03, similar to Vic, so there’s certainly no just way of saying he
won’t
stay in the National. Clan Royal had only won 2, 5 in April 2003. One year later he was runner up in the National… resemblance?
A runner who seems to have been forgotten is Keenan’s Future. He’s got no stamina troubles, he has good form on ground that’s soft-heavy and he’s well weighted with just 10-6 on his back; just short of a stone to the three expected to go off favorites.
This is a really tricky race to get ones head around. It’s gonna be really interesting.
Only 8 going to post this year; the smallest field in 11 years!
Given the ones that are left; i would reconsider Irish Raptors chance. In fact I’d say it’s anyone’s race now…
You can never really recreate an aintree fence. I wouldn’t give an advantage to any trainer who does.
There is expected rain for every day up till saturday, so i think we’re gonna get a soft (soft-yielding at least) Becher again this year… last years was actually the first ever Becher ran on heavy going, so we may be in for another…..
State of Play was an entry that intrigued me. Looking at the history of the Becher; not many horses go from being in the first 6 in the National and then go onto the Becher, but the likes of Earth Summit and Feels Like Gold seem to show they tend to have good chances. I just think State of Play made a few too many mistakes in the National for my liking.
With A New Story; he will make the trip and will most likely jump round (his fall last year was definitely out of character) however i just feel that the trip may actually be too short for him and he won’t be able to keep up with the pace. Same goes for Hello Bud…
If Irish Raptor wins this sunday; you will never see me on this site again. He clearly cannot make 3 miles. He’s tried twice and has finished a distance behind each time. Nevermind the National. Don’t get me wrong; he is a good horse and is developing into an Aintree specialist; but i don’t think we will ever see him win anything over those fences that isn’t 2 miles 5.
I’m really looking forward to Silver Birch’s run. He’ll do really well, i hope.
Companaro looks like he’ll be my pick of the bunch, but there are some very interesting entries this year. Idle Talk deserves a good run.
I am very, very disappointed at the lack of Black Apalachi.
I imagine he’ll get nominated (top 10 i mean) once he wins a National, provided he does.
May aswell take Snoopy Loopy off the list. His retirement was announced today, sadly. I was really looking forward to seeing him run in some more races and was really hoping for one shot in the Grand National.
Awesome spreadsheet!
Snoopy Loopy’s been confirmed for the Charlie Hall and i’d say he has a huge chance of winning, although i would like to see Ollie Magern run a gooden…
A favorite or a horse with supposedly a lot of promise losing does not automatically make it a bad race.
I had Doeslessthanme (i was also there in attendance) today and i was happy with his run. Although i think he goes best at 2,2 rather than just 2 miles. Pace may be a bit much for him.
edit: It’s not a h’cap – you’re barred!
Going is currently Good at Punchestown. Will they only run NP on Soft ground, or is it that he is restricted to that because he is seen to best effect on it? (Can’t believe it isn’t soft everywhere – I got soaked through three times this week.)It’s not a handicap? But according to RP.co.uk it says that;
Casey Jones and Notre Pere are carrying 11-10
One Cool Cookie, Royal County Star and War of Attrition have 11-6
Chelsea Harbour and Kilcrea Castle have 11-3
And Ponmeoath has 11-0I could easily be wrong and have buggered something up along the lines, but does that not make it a handicap? (hard to believe i’ve been into racing for 11 years)
) and i am still confident he will win it. He will take a hammering from the handicapper for winning the Bobbyjo chase last year, but there are so many other possible entries who if entered will make his life alot easier, so the weight isn’t too much of a factor… neither is the going either. Just a matter of getting round.